Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign is approaching the "try anything" stage.
Obama supporters are a cult. He copied someone else's homework. And now Hillary has returned with a vengeance to counting the Florida and Michigan results, even though state officials holding their primaries violated party rules. She urges doing so because these very same state officials "feel so strongly about it. We don't want to disenfranchise Michigan and Florida." Her chief lieutenant, Harold Ickes (who voted for those party rules), agrees, saying anything else would be a "slap in the face to voters in those states," aiding the Republicans in November. It must be a mere coincidence that with Florida and Michigan firmly in her column, Hillary could still pull this one out -- "the comeback kid" -- with a little added help from those 796 "super delegates."
Well, perhaps not that "super" actually; the bulk are retired governors, the Democratic Members of Congress and 411 (count'em) Democratic National Committee ("DNC") members, chosen for party loyalty and financial largesse. They are good and able people. So are the members of the Electoral College - but we still chafe at their picking our presidents, especially against the majority will.
And how did we get here? Partially because the Democrats favor proportional primaries so the race is still close. And it's what happens if you hold primaries in Florida and Michigan and nobody comes. Nobody did -- except for the voters and Dennis Kucinich, who campaigned briefly in Florida. Barack Obama's name was not even on the Michigan ballot. Yet, now an ugly convention floor fight is brewing over seating both delegations anyway. To many, this would be too... Clinton-like.
The DNC has thus quietly suggested that Florida and Michigan hold some form of "do-over." Neither Obama nor Clinton supports that notion. State party officials (the ones who broke the rules), say this would be "too expensive" and "open a can of worms." What a difference a month makes. In January, they crowed "Florida is in the driver's seat... the nation's eyes are turning to our January 29th presidential primary." One blogger claimed "the entire media universe will be watching the outcome." Not quite. But their can of worms is already open; the worms are running loose.
In Bush vs. Gore, the Supreme Court majority stressed that in this country "the right to vote... is fundamental. Its fundamental nature lies in the equal weight accorded to each vote and the equal dignity accorded to each voter." Then, in a complete perversion of that principal, Chief Justice Rehnquist's opinion prevented the continued recount of the Florida vote, securing the White House for George W. Bush. We all know what happened after that.
In one sense then, Hillary is right. The people of Florida and Michigan are on the verge of being disenfranchised once again, this time by the Democrats. Their votes will not be "accorded equal weight." Their voters will not be "accorded equal dignity."
But, unlike the 2000 general election, the votes cast in Florida and Michigan were illegitimate and should not be counted. However, it does not follow that views and opinions of millions of voters should be permanently disallowed - just because state leaders hijacked their primaries. They deserve better. They deserve actual primary elections following contested campaigns within the rules. Right now though, the Democrats' rules seem more like guidelines. Clinton says count the votes anyway. Obama says no - but those super delegates should rubber stamp whoever is leading by convention-time.
The rules don't require that either.
Obama is, of course, on a roll right now but could still suffer a reversal of fortune if Clinton does well enough in Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania. Then we're off to the super delegate races.
This would sully our right to vote. It would send precisely the wrong message to young people who, for the first time in a long time, have become so engaged in this election, that the system is rigged. The eventual choice would be picked in that now smoke-free backroom; great television, but a lousy image for the general election.
With everything breaking their way this year, the Democrats are heading for a train wreck -- poised to either alienate millions of Obama supporters, most especially African Americans and the young, or alternatively, millions of Clinton supporters, most especially women. Meanwhile, the Republicans are licking their collective chops. The Grand Old Party's grand old leadership is rallying around John McCain, fairly chosen by millions of Republican voters. Soon, we'll likely be treated to pictures of happy Iraqis with purple fingers while Florida and Michigan Democrats are shown wandering around in the dark - wondering just where their votes went.
It doesn't have to be this way. Just as when a governor dies, special elections could and should be held by June in both Florida and Michigan. Are there practicalities to overcome? Certainly -- but there are four months to overcome them. Would party rules need to be changed or lawsuits defended? Sure, but better now than in Denver. And would either candidate really want to prevent millions of Florida and Michigan voters from having their say in real primary elections?
This time, let's count all the votes.
A registered Democrat, Al Meyerhoff is a civil rights attorney in Los Angeles.
and how many voters was that? over 600,000 in michigan and 1.7 million in florida.
now i'll continue reading the article, with one other point to make in advance: new hampshire broke the rules without being punished before michigan scheduled the january 15 primary in which obama and edwards fell all over themselves to get their names off the ballot.
I can't tell you how much I object to this kind of thinking -- the same kind of thinking argued that, without the intercession of the Supreme Court in 2000, the country was on the verge of a Constitutional crisis. It was not true then and it is no more true now that the Democrats are on the verge of a train wreck.
Let's face it, the whole primary system stinks to high heaven. Why should iowa and New Hampshire hold such sway over the rest of the process? I strongly support a National Primary Day where candidates can be chosen from a larger pool before the media's love affair with one or another limits the discourse (which is more a battle for sound bytes than a fight for the minds of the electorate).
Superdelegates who are tied to a constituency (governors, senators and representatives) should vote with their continuencies. Other superdelegates should keep their mouths shut until the convention and vote with the expressed will of the people who bothered to vote or caucus -- a goodly number this year; let's all take a bow -- even if that works against the best interest of the candidate I like.
As for Michigan and Florida -- the Democratic Party should be taken behind the shed and flogged! However, the Florida delegates should be seated, since all of the candidates were on the ballot. Some other kind of accomodation should be made for Michigan where there was no choice; I don't know what that accomodation might be, but in no event should either state be disenfranchised or permitted a "do-over".
At any rate, we've got a long way to go before the convention -- hell, we've got a long way to go until tomorrow! And it's as Will Rogers said, "You've got to be an optimist to be a Democrat, and you've got to be a humorist to stay one”
28% want a re-vote
13% want the delegates to be seated - but split evenly between Clinton and Obama
15% believe that Florida Democratic Party broke the rules and should accept the penalty having no delegates be seated.
http://www.miamiherald.com/campaign08/story/437352.html
http://media.miamiherald.com/smedia/2008/02/28/15/FL208Poll.source.prod_affiliate.56.pdf
And, another intesting note - if you go to Real Clear Politics' web site and look at the current count (pledged and super delegates) - Obama has 1392, Clinton has 1279. If you add in the delegates from MI and FL as is - he is ahead by 2, before March 4 elections.
Now, Gov. Crist of Florida has come out in support of a revote. However, we shouldn't wait until June - These revotes should be held on April 22 - the same date as Pennsylvania. This way, if Clinton wishes to stay in after March 4 - it makes Florida and Michigan relevant again (which is what those 2 states wanted) - if they wait until June - Obama will have racked up an even larger lead than he has now and makes them pretty much irrelevant or last ditch efforts for Clinton.
So, unless Clinton can really make a clean break on March 4, even with MI and FL they would be neck and neck with 12 contests remaining after that. Of those 12, Clinton is currently only expected to pick up about 4 and Obama 8.
In this campaign, Obama took Howard Dean's discovery that the internet could revolutionize the funding race and added to it his own experience as a street-level political organiser. The result of this experiment has been nothing short of astonishing: he's managed to find a way--in a few weeks or months--to build political operations strong enough to defeat the political establishments of state after state. Whatever happens in the general, that's an achievement that has changed politics in the US; changed for the better.
In 2000 the Democrats in Florida had their votes stolen by the Republican party. I don't think Democrats should act like Republicans.
But it is true, if Hillary goes after the Michigan and Florida votes, being that she is on the ballet and Obama is not, it will cause a huge upset in the party and one that may turn all the young voters away from the process they are now just begining to show, as a group, interest in. It will upset all the obama supporters and make happy hillary's - making the party more split than it has to be.
The only way this can be settled for the people who were left out and the voters all across the nation is for the election to be moved to April or May if both hillary and obama are still in the race then. Then obama would have a chance to campaign in those places, be on the ballet (a big big difference) and hillary will feel better and end her quest to (appear) like she is cheating. The people will be counted, in the "fun" with the rest of us and all before it comes down to super delagate, which is another can of worms if they choose the candidate that has the least number of popular votes.
It is interesting anyway
This is WHY Hillary kept her name on the ballot when Edwards and Obama conceded to party rules asking them not too...and she expects to be rewarded for it? This is the kind of crap Bush would pull!
(quote)As for the Democratic race itself, Clinton faces some risk as the only major name on the Democratic primary ballot, said Ed Sarpolus, pollster and consultant with EPIC/MRA of Lansing.
He said if Clinton receives less than 60% of the Democratic primary vote, it would be an embarrassment.
"She can lose by winning," Sarpolus said. "If more than a third of voters vote for uncommitted and Dennis Kucinich, that would be a bad sign."(end quote)
She pulled 55% and uncommitted pulled 40%, Kucinich 4% and Dodd 1%.
Split the delegates, save the money, and let's all move forward with removing corruption from government.