Alan Abramowitz
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Alan I. Abramowitz, Alben W. Barkley Professor of Political Science, B.A. (1969), University of Rochester; M.A., Ph.D. (1976), Stanford University. Previous appointments at William and Mary (1976-82) and SUNY Stony Brook (1982-87). Areas of Specialization: American politics, political parties, elections, and voting behavior. Current research involves party realignment in the U.S. and its consequences for presidential and congressional elections

Blog Entries by Alan Abramowitz

Adopting Tea Party Positions Could Be Risky for GOP

Posted February 1, 2011 | 12:42:04 (EST)

According to the Gallup Poll, 70% of Americans, including 88% of Republicans, say it is important for Republican leaders in Congress to "take the Tea Party movement's positions and objectives into account" in addressing the nation's problems.

As Margie Omero has pointed out in a recent

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The Myth of a Conservative Public

Posted December 2, 2010 | 15:23:27 (EST)

The results of the 2010 midterm elections have contributed to a widespread belief that public opinion in the U.S. has shifted sharply to the right since the election of Barack Obama in 2008. Dramatic Republican gains, including the pickup of more than 60 seats in the House of Representatives and...

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A Transformational Election? Not Likely

Posted November 10, 2010 | 13:17:02 (EST)

"A week ago today, voters flipped the Obama coalition on its head and voted for Republicans in a mid-term landslide that has the potential to be a transformational election." -Steve Lombardo

Get a grip, Steve. It wasn't a landslide and it's not likely to turn out to be a "transformational...

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Did Gallup Get It Right?

Posted November 5, 2010 | 12:05:55 (EST)

"Gallup's polling and modeling predicted a wave election for the Republicans in the House, projecting 60 or more seats gained by the GOP. This is what occurred."

That's what the Gallup Poll had to say on the day after the 2010 midterm election about the accuracy of their final pre-election...

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Bad Night for Congressional Democrats and Gallup Poll

Posted November 3, 2010 | 08:07:23 (EST)

There were two big losers in last night's midterm election -- congressional Democrats who saw their House majority erased and their Senate majority greatly reduced, and the Gallup Poll, which produced the worst final vote forecast of any major national poll.

Gallup's final likely voter poll gave Republicans a 15...

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Gallup Goes All in: GOP Up 15 in Final LV Poll

Posted November 1, 2010 | 10:02:37 (EST)

Gallup's final pre-election poll has a Republican lead of 15 points among likely voters, 55 percent to 40 percent. That is not only larger than the Republican lead in any other national poll and about twice the size of the average Republican lead in recent polls, it also implies a...

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Gallup's Implausible Likely Voter Results

Posted October 15, 2010 | 13:46:30 (EST)

It's a shocking result. According to the Gallup Poll, a generic Republican candidate currently leads a generic Democratic candidate by 17 points among likely voters in a hypothetical House matchup. A margin of that magnitude on Election Day would almost certainly result in a Republican gain of at...

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Registered vs. Likely Voters: How Large a Gap?

Posted September 10, 2010 | 15:46:05 (EST)

According to several recent national polls, Democrats may be headed toward their worst showing in a congressional election since World War II. A new NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll has Republicans leading Democrats on the generic House ballot by 9 points among likely voters while a new Washington Post/ABC News Poll...

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GOP Up by 7 in Gallup Tracking Poll

Posted August 17, 2010 | 17:21:41 (EST)

If you heard a loud thump on Monday afternoon it just may have been the sound of worried Democrats hitting the panic button. That's when the latest Gallup weekly tracking poll was released and it showed Republicans with their largest lead yet on the generic ballot--7 points. It's the third...

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Remembering Gallup's Wacky 2000 Tracking Poll

Posted August 7, 2008 | 18:49:48 (EST)

Everyone remembers the 2000 presidential election with its excruciating post-election vote counting controversy in Florida and the Supreme Court decision that awarded the presidency to George W. Bush. But how many people remember the Gallup 2000 election tracking poll? I'm sure the Gallup folks would like us to forget it,...

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About that New USA Today/Gallup Poll

Posted July 29, 2008 | 15:26:42 (EST)

A newly released USA Today/Gallup Poll shows John McCain leading Barack Obama by four points, 49% to 45%, among likely voters. This on the heels of the latest Gallup tracking poll, which is based on a completely separate and much larger sample, that shows Obama leading McCain by 8 points...

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The Color Purple: An Examination of the 2008 Presidential Election in the Swing States

Posted July 25, 2008 | 17:36:55 (EST)

When it comes to presidential politics, in the words of the immortal Duke Ellington, "it don't mean a thing if it ain't got that swing." Because presidential elections are decided by the electoral vote and not the popular vote, and because every state except Nebraska and Maine awards all of...

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