The Myth of a Toss-up Election

"Too close to call." "Within the margin of error." "A statistical dead heat." If you've been following news coverage of the 2008 presidential election, you're probably familiar with these phrases. Media commentary on the presidential horserace, reflecting the results of a series of new national polls, has strained to make a case for a hotly contested election that is essentially up for grabs.

Signs of Barack Obama's weaknesses allegedly abound. The huge generic Democratic Party advantage is not reflected in the McCain-Obama pairings in national polls. Why, according to the constant refrain, hasn't Obama put this election away? A large number of Clinton supporters in the primaries refuse to commit to Obama. White working class and senior voters tilt decidedly to McCain. Racial resentment limits Obama's support among these two critical voting blocs. Enthusiasm among young voters and African-Americans, two groups strongly attracted to Obama, is waning. McCain is widely seen as better prepared to step up to the responsibilities of commander-in-chief. Blah, blah, blah.

While no election outcome is guaranteed and McCain's prospects could improve over the next three and a half months, virtually all of the evidence that we have reviewed - historical patterns, structural features of this election cycle, and national and state polls conducted over the last several months - points to a comfortable Obama/Democratic party victory in November. Trumpeting this race as a toss-up, almost certain to produce another nail-biter finish, distorts the evidence and does a disservice to readers and viewers who rely upon such punditry.

Consider the following.

Except for a few days when the Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls showed a tie, Barack Obama has led John McCain in every national poll in the past two months. Obama's average margin has consistently been in the 4-6 point range during this time. By contrast, the polls in 2000 and 2004 showed much more variation over time.

State polling data have also consistently given Obama the advantage. According to realclearpolitics.com, Obama is currently leading in 26 states and the District of Columbia with a total of 322 electoral votes; McCain is currently leading in 24 states with a total of 216 electoral votes. Obama is leading in every state carried by John Kerry in 2004 along with seven states carried by George Bush: Iowa, New Mexico, Ohio, Indiana, Virginia, Nevada and Colorado.

Obama is leading in 11 of the 12 swing states that were decided by a margin of five points or less in 2004 including five of the six that were carried by George Bush. And while Obama has a comfortable lead in every state that John Kerry won by a margin of more than five points in 2004, McCain is in a difficult battle in a number of states that Bush carried by a margin of more than five points including such solidly red states as Indiana, Montana, North Dakota, Virginia, and North Carolina.

And remember these June and July polls may well understate Obama's eventual margin. Ronald Reagan did not capitalize on the huge structural advantage Republicans enjoyed in 1980 until after the party conventions and presidential debate. It took a while and a sufficient level of comfort with the challenger for anti-Carter votes to translate into support for Reagan. If Obama's performance over the last eighteen months is any guide, a similar pattern is likely to unfold in 2008.

Aside from the horserace results, there is evidence of a growing Democratic Party advantage in the electorate. A recent analysis by Rhodes Cook of voter registration data in 29 states and the District of Columbia that permit registration by party shows that since November of 2004, Democratic registration has increased by almost 700 thousand while Republican registration has declined by almost one million.

Democrats now enjoy a substantial lead over Republicans in voter identification. According to the Gallup Poll, the two parties have gone from near parity four years ago to a 12 point Democratic advantage in the first half of 2008. And polling data continue to show that Democrats are more satisfied with their party's nominee than Republicans voters and more highly motivated to vote. While Republicans normally benefit from higher turnout among their supporters, that may not be the case this year.

In order to defeat Barack Obama, John McCain will have to convince a lot of disgruntled Republicans to turn out and vote for him. But mobilizing the Republican base, a strategy employed successfully by Karl Rove in 2002 and 2004, won't be enough for McCain to win in 2008. He'll also have to convince a majority of independents and a substantial number of Democrats to vote for him. That's a task that proved too difficult even for Rove in the 2006 midterm election and it may be even more difficult in 2008. That's because since 2006 the political environment has gone from bad to worse for Republicans.

It is no exaggeration to say that the political environment this year is one of the worst for a party in the White House in the past sixty years. You have to go all the way back to 1952 to find an election involving the combination of an unpopular president, an unpopular war, and an economy teetering on the brink of recession. 1952 was also the last time the party in power wasn't represented by either the incumbent president or the incumbent vice-president. But the fact that Democrat Harry Truman wasn't on the ballot didn't stop Republican Dwight Eisenhower from inflicting a crushing defeat on Truman's would-be successor, Adlai Stevenson.

Barack Obama is not a national hero like Dwight Eisenhower, and George Bush is certainly no Harry Truman. But if history is any guide, and absent a dramatic change in election fundamentals or an utter collapse of the Obama candidacy, John McCain is likely to suffer the same fate as Adlai Stevenson.

Abramowitz is a professor of political science at Emory University. Mann is a senior fellow at The Brookings Institution. Sabato is a professor of politics at the University of Virginia and director of its Center for Politics.

Comments

[walkthewalk]

I agree. The media is bending over backwards to prop up John McCain. They need a horse race to ensure ratings and readership. Why does the public need to receive poll information every minute? I understand the usefulness of polls to the individual campaigns, but what purpose does it serve us?

[SCG]

Thanks, for that informative post, which confirms common sense. The MSM continues in the fog. But then again, were not officially in recession either.

[DAVESEAN]

THE MSM WANTS RATINGS AND A CAPTIVATED NAIL-BITING AUDIENCE FOR THEIR OWN PROFIT.
THEIR ARGUMENT BY PUNDITRY FOR A STATISTICAL TIE IS WITHOUT MERIT CONSIDERING THE POLITICAL CLIMATE FOR THE REPUBLICAN.
THEY ARE ALL DOING A DISSERVICE TO McCAIN...GIVING HIM AN IMPRESSION OF A CLOSELY CONTESTED RACE ,
HE'LL KEEPS STAYING AWAY FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE RNC IS EVEN BECOMING COMPLACENT.NO SIGNIFICANT DRIVE TO REGISTER VOTERS TO THEIR PARTY.
THE MSM NEEDS TO BE PUT IN THIER PLACE...THEY NEED TO REPORT THE NEWS ,NOT DRIVE THE NARRATIVE.NO WONDER THEY KEEP BEATING TO DEATH ANY PERCEIVED WEAKNESS FROM OBAMA WHILE DRIVING UP MCSAME'S POSITIVES.....SOME BIASED REPORTING
THE AMERICAN PEOPLE DESERVE BETTER....WELL RESEARCHED ARTICLE BY ERUDITE CITIZENS

[Breakwind]

Funny, I took the straw poll on AOL this morning. Not one single state was "blue". The map was utterly red, with over 300,000 votes for McCain and over 100,000 votes for Obama.

Would you say AOL is a conservative bastion of the internet?

Needless to say, you can twist your poll readings to say anything you want.

[uprt]

Forward looking folks eager for change about sums up both AOL users and Rethugs.

[flatus]

Well, Breakwind, since we are cousins in name, I will tell you this. AOL has always been the refuge of the, shall we say, less technically advanced. Since this implies ignorance it is no surprise to me that the voting would go awry.

[MaryanneAZ]

AOL's polls were entirely wrong during the primaries. This is not rocket science. Go back to the Gallup and reliable national polls and you will see who had what right. The information is available if you have the interest and want the truth. Obama '08

[laocoon]

It must be made to appear as close as possible so that the red shift in vote counting can steal the election and not be too obvious.

[Faith101]

I sure hope and pray you guys assessment is correct. There are a lot of hurting people and we are so hungry for change I can't wait to get to the polls in Nov. The repub have really screwed things up bad this time.

[tompoe]

What impact will the housing crisis have on voter registration? We're witnessing the removal of thousands of homeowners each and every day of the week, and this will go on for at least two million more over the coming months. The republicans, the party that believes in corporate welfare and free market for individuals, are wringing their hands in glee as they look to an election that will make an even more obscene mockery of the voters' right to vote this year. Whether through rigged voting machines or shredded voter registration databases, they're arrogantly looking forward to a third bush term. After all, they have corporate media and corporate poll takers to set the stage.

[itmaybetoolate]

We must be even more vigilant this year.

[TakeSake]

That's almost enough reason to have engineered the mortgage bubble.

[GeorgeKaplan]

And in November we will find out if any of this is true or not. Obama should run like he's behind... I would not take even one vote for granted. He looks like he will win and today he would, but you never know what slime is ahead... it will get nasty and right after labor day to election day I predict the wildest presidential campaign in modern history.

[Patrickvashon]

I think you are right, it will be dirty with no restraints. The thing the learned authors miss is just that fact, this is pre-season, things get tough when the regular season begins. Obama has some flaws that he must overcome in order to win, even in this "slam dunk" year for Democrats. It is possible that we end up with Democratic legislature and Republican President, after all there is 'change' and there is 'Radical Change'.

[tressie22]

Thus far the O campaign has proven to be methodical, smart, savvy and responsive. He's doing what must be done now. Any solid punches would be long forgotten by Americans, with our collective ADD and all. So, now is the time to build the war chest and manage the perception game. I have more confidence in Obama's ability, however, to take off the gloves and blitz McCain with well crafted rhetoric, blistering ads, charm, intelligence and old school systematic ground deployment in the last few weeks when it matters most.