If you heard a loud thump on Monday afternoon it just may have been the sound of worried Democrats hitting the panic button. That's when the latest Gallup weekly tracking poll was released and it showed Republicans with their largest lead yet on the generic ballot--7 points. It's the third consecutive week that Republicans have had a significant lead--following a 5 point lead two weeks ago and a 6 point lead last week. And that's among all registered voters, not just those likely to vote in November. Once Gallup begins screening for likely voters the GOP lead will almost certainly get larger since registered Republicans traditionally turn out at a higher rate than registered Democrats and this year Republicans are more enthusiastic about voting than Democrats.
But do Gallup's latest results actually mean that Republicans are likely to maintain a significant advantage on the generic ballot? Not necessarily. A closer examination of Gallup's weekly generic ballot data indicates that the current GOP advantage is likely to shrink over the next few weeks. In fact almost all of the week-to-week change in the standing of the parties appears to be due to random variation. There is little evidence of any real trend, at least so far.
Over the past 18 weeks, from April 12-18 through August 8-15, Republicans have received an average of 46% of the vote to 45% for Democrats on the generic ballot. There has been considerable week-to-week variation, from a 6 point Democratic lead only four weeks ago, to the current 7 point Republican lead, but no clear trend. Over this period, the correlation between the week of the survey and the size of the GOP lead is a very small and statistically insignificant .14.
Figure 1 displays both the week-to-week and the five week running averages for the Republican margin on the generic ballot between week 5 and week 14 of the Gallup weekly tracking poll. While the weekly average has shown considerable volatility, the five week running average has been fairly stable, fluctuating between a 2 point Democratic lead and a 2 point Republican lead with no clear trend.
The results in Figure 1 suggest that the weekly fluctuations in the generic ballot results are largely random. This conclusion is reinforced by the fact that there is a fairly large negative correlation of -.55 (p < .025) between the size of the GOP lead one week and the change in the size of that lead the next week. This means that the larger the GOP margin in a given week, the more that lead tends to shrink in the following week. These results again suggest that the week to week variation in the results is largely random.
Of course the fact that the current 7 point Republican lead on the generic ballot is likely to shrink doesn't alter the fact that Republicans are poised to make substantial gains in the midterm election. Even a tie on the generic ballot, given normal turnout patterns, is good news for the GOP. So while it may not be time yet for Democrats to hit the panic button, there is plenty of reason for them to be worried.
Alan I. Abramowitz is the Alben W. Barkley Professor of Political Science at Emory University in Atlanta, Georgia. He is also a frequent contributer to Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball.
Show me a poll that indicates what Republicans have done to help move the country forward in the past 18 months. After all, why should Republicans keep their jobs if they aren't performing their job. And clearly, they are not.
Meanwhile, entire sections of the nation are bordering on bankruptcy: California and Illinois are two prime suspects. There is not one solitary policy envisioned or in place that directs our nation other than to currency worthlessness, massive unemployment, social and political dislodgement and ruin. We should expect both opportunistic and foreign treachery and treason for economic, political power and sabotage of our remaining assets.
There is no weaker word that can describe the Obama Presidency except a snake pit lof treason and outrageous incompetence. His men and policies are destroying our Nation.
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Please disseminate this widely! Thanks.
Obama=Bush
The Republicans are portraying the Democrats as completely at fault for everything when they provided no assistance in trying to figure out how to get out of the hole they created that is draining the wealth out of the middle class. Aparently Americans really do have short memories.
I wouldn't care if this "Republican Leaning" poll has the GOP up by 30!
Mods: Is this comment kind enough for ya? I feel like I'm in China!
That being said, generic polls don't matter, the GOP needs to win 10 new Senate seats and 40 some new house seats to gain control and those leads might be too high to overcome especially in the Senate. The House is much harder to predict but 40 seats is by no means a small number and even in this political climate incumbents are still hard to unseat. Yes this number is scary but it a national poll determined politics in Washington things would be a lot different. These elections come down to individual battles not broad party conflicts; yes the GOP has the edge, yet the Dems are going to loose some seats, but this is by no means an apocalyptic moment for the Dems.