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Alan Abramowitz

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Are Young Americans Turning Against Obama, Part II

Posted: 07/06/2012 3:29 pm

In a recent post I questioned the claim set forth in a July 1 New York Times article that the newest generation of voters, the so-called "post-millennials," were significantly more conservative and less supportive of President Obama than members of the millennial generation. The Times article cited an online survey conducted earlier this year by the Harvard Center for Politics, which found that Americans under the age of 25 were more skeptical of activist government and therefore more open to voting for Mitt Romney than the 25 to 29 year-olds who strongly supported Mr. Obama four years ago.

In my post I presented evidence from a recent Gallup Poll as well as the 2010 national exit poll that found post-millennials to actually be more liberal and more likely to vote Democratic than members of the millennial generation. I can now provide additional confirmation of these findings, based on evidence from the 2012 Gallup Tracking Poll.

Gallup does not normally separate 18 to 24 year-olds from 25 to 29 year-olds in their weekly breakdown of presidential candidate support by age groups among registered voters. In response to my request, however, Gallup generously provided me with the following results based on interviews with registered voters from early May through early July:

18-24 Obama 57, Romney 34 N=1470
25-29 Obama 53, Romney 35 N=1135

Contrary to the claims made in the New York Times article, post-millennials were significantly more supportive of President Obama than millennials. This is not surprising since the post-millennial generation is even more racially diverse than the millennial generation, a trend that is certain to continue with future generations of voters.

 
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In a recent post I questioned the claim set forth in a July 1 New York Times article that the newest generation of voters, the so-called "post-millennials," were significantly more conservative and le...
In a recent post I questioned the claim set forth in a July 1 New York Times article that the newest generation of voters, the so-called "post-millennials," were significantly more conservative and le...
 
 
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06:06 PM on 08/04/2012
As far as the youth vote is concerned, President Obama and the democrats fought to keep student loan interest cost lower. The GOP including Gov Romney support doubling that same rate costing newly graduated students thousand of dollars in extra interest. Going to (servey says) their friends in the banking industry. From his false statements about is time at Bain, to his hideing of his tax returns, Gov Romney has shown a arrogance that says, normal rules don't apply to me. Well he can choose to not release his tax returns, and we can "choose" to not vote for him.
05:32 PM on 08/04/2012
Bain capital, and the secret tax returns will be the BANE of the failed Romney campaign. Romney is a arrogant man who believes the "rules" don't apply to him. He had decided that he doesn't have to release his tax returns. He can claim that he wasn't involved with Bain capital after 1999 even though he was listed as CEO, president, and sole stock holder for 2000, 2001, 2002. His signiture was on SEC legal documents to that effect. He has shown, and continues to show a disreguard toward following rules, legal or otherwise. If you agree pass this next part on. Romney can Choose to not release his taxes, and we can CHOOSE to not vote for him.
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WilliamGossett
03:05 PM on 07/22/2012
The final poll is November and Willard will win. Not that I like it, but that is reality.
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stillstandingkickingbutt
Please, I have the floor
08:05 PM on 07/18/2012
What she was really saying was gulp swallow what this hesitate N word has done to this country Why were there no Afrikans there ?
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stillstandingkickingbutt
Please, I have the floor
07:51 PM on 07/18/2012
No Alan i don't think they will. In many of the communities like mine the word is out They who are able and who have ID will be there There is no need to be concerned Afrikan desc still support the POTUS regardless WHY? we all know the real story Many youth have not been able to get stable jobs while the Bushwacker was in office and prior However at the same time PRIDE will take the helm and Barak H Obama will reign king of the Black House oh shoot what did i say that for LOL
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Matt Chernesky
Little Gay Monster on HuffPost
09:07 PM on 07/09/2012
I'm pretty excited to vote -- first time, ever! -- this election for President Obama. It's going to be a wonderful feeling.
mickeyagain
President Obama gets it
01:26 AM on 07/10/2012
My daughter's too.Good choice,keep spreading the word.
f/f
mickeyagain
President Obama gets it
01:53 AM on 07/10/2012
My daughter too.Good choice.
f/f
04:44 PM on 07/09/2012
Obama is doing a great job. He wants a dependent United States of America. He doesn't want to create an environment to create jobs. He wants more people unemployed and on food stamps or some form of government welfare. This is how the Socialist/Marxist State works. The Government provides your housing (HUD), Health Care (HHS), food (food stamps), etc. The problem Obama faces are with those who want to work and become successful. That is why he demonizes the rich. Only a fool would think that the stimulus was about creating jobs. It was a payoff to State Government and Union goons. Last week Obama said the jobs report was a step in the right direction. Exactly correct. 80,000 new jobs created while 85,000 new collectors of SS Disability. That is Obama's Marxist State ideal.
05:46 PM on 08/04/2012
this is exactly wrong! He never has "demonized" the Rich, just one of the GOP lies, along with the recent title "job creators" What he and MOST americans want to see is a slight adjustment of 4% to the tax rate for income over 200.000 for individuals and 250,000 for married couples. What exactly does that amount to? If an individual makes 201,000 dollars his tax rate on the first 200,000 is the same as everyone else, on that next 1000.00 dollars he/she will pay an additional $40.00 dollars. WOW! such a travisty. There was a time when people understood there is a responsibility to the community. A 4% difference in income over 200.000 dollars will not materally effect anyone life stile or choices. the rest of the post about marxist state ect is flat out GOP garbage, any rational study of the past 3 years will show this.
01:15 PM on 07/09/2012
Only old people are going to vote for Romney. A recent poll showed that the 65+ crowd does not understand at all how the Affordable Care Act works and is extremely vulnerable to GOP propaganda and brainwashing. Also, most of them a White--the 65+ racial and socioeconomic breakdown favors dramatically the GOP, as mostly white, wealthy people tend to live longer.
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Wurkenstiff
Accept me for who I am and it won't be empty!
10:37 AM on 07/10/2012
Old people and young people that don't want to live on the government dole for the rest of their lives.
And people of all ages that despise the idea of going to a Euro style healthcare system that leaves diabetics untreated for extensive periods of time, where it takes MONTHS to get an MRI...hope young people don't get brain tumors because they will be bleeding out from their noses by the time they get checked after a decade of Obamacare!
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05:36 PM on 07/11/2012
They'll be bleeding out of all their orifices if they , like 40,000,000 Americans now, don't have any health insurance.
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stillstandingkickingbutt
Please, I have the floor
07:57 PM on 07/18/2012
One thing about it we as a people will still support the POTUS why? because we must! It is essential to have the man we can trust (to show his taxes) and to keep jobs in the us. Its important to my people and should be important to all people to have healthcare if they do not have it. Esp for childbearing women
.For anyone to sit and tell us what will happen if health care is instituted is like reading a crystal ball I have never been without INS but i know many who are and that is the saddest thing..At least for the children..We will find a way to pay for it like we always do.
01:12 PM on 07/09/2012
They also get to have health insurance until they're 26 thanks to Obama. No wonder they'll vote for him in droves.
10:56 AM on 07/09/2012
As each generation arrives at the voting poles they will vote progressively. I trust they are better educated the post generations of the 70s. The up and coming generations are aware of issues of much greater importance than what has been spun as "moral issues". The last 2 generation that stood before the voting machines did and will continue to vote on issues of great importance, "Corporate America", "Climate Change", "Education", "Civil Rights", "Health Care".
06:10 PM on 07/08/2012
Republican Speaker of the House John Boehner has said the following:

"Listen, we're just politicians. I wasn't elected to play God. The American people probably aren't going to fall in love with Mitt Romney. I'll tell you this: 95 percent of the people that show up to vote in November are going to show up in that voting booth, and they are going to vote for or against Barack Obama."

That is not the way to determine the head of state. And that is an obvious indicator of why partisan politics in America has become such a corrupt, divisive, self-defeating failure of a system.

Fortunately, the Founding Fathers foresaw that we would need to alter and reform our government, and they provided the way to do it in Article 5 of the Constitution.

The 21st Century Declaration of Independence suggests how we can do that, and why -- how we can prevent the rule of money, end and prevent the divisive contest for the throne, and instead establish government of, by, and for the people. See http://messenger.cjcmp.org/newdeclaration.html and http://messenger.cjcmp.org/democracy.html - which also shows how we can do it..
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stillstandingkickingbutt
Please, I have the floor
08:00 PM on 07/18/2012
Ya and by sending money and jobs overseas into tax shelters and not paying taxes on it Thats what the CFR TLC and thre Illuminati do is Mittens one I would follow him to the trash And i tell my callers the same thing Tune in at 3-4pm m-sat
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FormerlyTCnSRQ
A Man On The Run..... No Escape Ahead
09:34 AM on 07/08/2012
slow news day.....Nate Silver still has Obama at 66.8% probability in winning electoral college....
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05:41 PM on 07/11/2012
Nate isn't psychic, but he does his homework, is smarter than 99.9% of us and has an impressive batting average in the world of politics. We'll just have to wait and see.
08:58 AM on 07/07/2012
Of course they are! He has failed them even more than older Americans. He has buried them in federal debt that they will be paying significantly higher taxes to pay off, he will bury them in debt trying to bailout SS and Medicare in 2034 because BHO failed to refund, and he left them with a horrific economy and no jobs. BHO has proven to be the most ineffective, incompetent and divisive president in US history. Even video game playing, parent's cellar dwelling, unemployment check collecting college graduates have figured that out!
09:11 AM on 07/07/2012
"Voices of Reality" did you even read the article before commenting?

Oh, and the only way unemployed college students would be collecting unemployment is if they lost their job while going to school . . .please rethink your answers and try again.
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Wurkenstiff
Accept me for who I am and it won't be empty!
10:53 AM on 07/10/2012
LOL...so they can't even GET jobs to begin with!
There are very few reasons to vote for Obama and none if you are focused on the economy.
01:21 PM on 07/09/2012
"Buried in Federal Debt" is a phrase that applies best to the Bush Administration and its mastermind, "deficits-don't-matter"-Cheney. If that is your problem, then you should turn against them.

Same goes for the phrase "left them with a horrific economy". As I recall the one who left us with a horrific economy was again, Dubya, when he departed in 2009.

This is known as "transference" in psychiatry--you transfer an emotion you have for one person onto another, as you fail to acknowledge it on a conscious level for one reason or another.
08:31 AM on 07/07/2012
For Mitt this time around, success in November is just showing up with a respectable running mate. This is all John McCain had to do as well. 
But winning wasn't good enough for the hard core of the base. They also wanted to draw blood from the other side.  
Sarah did a good job at that and drove the levelheaded folks away. 
Now they want to do the same thing again. But Mitt is wised up and isn't about to let them -- not after they managed to box him in during the primaries. 
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05:45 PM on 07/11/2012
He sucked up to every one on the Far Right during the primaries..Now, he's involved in some very awkward and painfully inept efforts to pretend he never heard of them. Don't tell me that YOU'VE forgotten about all that video tape....the Dems haven't.