An examination of the voting patterns and exit poll results in Tuesday's Wisconsin recall election indicates that turnout was a key factor in incumbent Republican Scott Walker's victory over his Democratic challenger, Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett. While there was a heavy turnout for a special election, the final total of just over 2.5 million votes fell well short of the nearly 3 million votes cast in the 2008 presidential election. And Republicans appear to have done a better job of getting their voters to the polls. Turnout for the recall election was 91 percent of 2008 turnout in heavily Republican Waukesha County, the largest GOP county in the state, but only 83 percent of 2008 turnout in Milwaukee County, the largest Democratic county in the state.
The same pattern was evident in the exit poll results. The 2012 recall electorate was noticeably older, whiter, more conservative and more Republican than the 2008 electorate. Voters age 65 and older outnumbered those under the age of 30 by 18 percent to 16 percent on Tuesday. In contrast, four years ago, 18- to 29-year-old voters outnumbered those 65 and older by 22 percent to 14 percent. Most significantly, on Tuesday Republicans outnumbered Democrats by 35 percent to 34 percent according to the exit poll. Four years ago, Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 39 percent to 33 percent.
Despite Scott Walker's fairly easy win on Tuesday, Democrats apparently were able to retake control of the state senate by defeating one GOP senator. And Democrats can take heart from one result from the exit poll. Even with a Republican-leaning electorate, Barack Obama led Mitt Romney by 51 percent to 44 percent when exit poll respondents were asked how they would vote in the presidential election. These results suggest that, Obama should be considered a solid favorite to carry the state again, especially if Democrats turn out in larger numbers in November.
Peter Dreier: Big Money Wins in Wisconsin: Walker Spent 88% of the Money to Get 53% of the Vote
 |
 |
|
| Obama | Romney | |
|---|---|---|
| Electoral Votes (270 to win) |
332 | 206 |
| Obama | Romney | |
|---|---|---|
| Total | 65,899,660 | 60,932,152 |
| Percent | 51.1% | 47.2% |
| Democrats* | Republicans | |
|---|---|---|
| Current Senate | 53 | 47 |
| Seats gained or lost | +2 | -2 |
| New Total | 55 | 45 |
| Democrats | Republicans | |
|---|---|---|
| Seats won | 201 | 234 |
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/06/07/us/politics/shifts-in-wisconsin-voters.html?ref=politics&gwh=BEC53D95FD09251369632D4087FFD5F2
The tea party didn't even show up to vote. Once again, the majority of voters already had their mind made up, and it was the persuadable and wishy washy "independents" who check the commercials in the morning, and vote their resentment. We need to either start having serious policy level debates in this country, or just throw up a coin. Unless we can move rational discussion a bit higher up the food chain, we're going to be spending all our time eating our kin and neighbors (and looking for the next interest group to target and loath). A movable feast with no end in sight but sumptuous and delectable blood and gore.
If you want to win you have to V-O-T-E.
http://www.aei.org/article/politics-and-public-opinion/elections/exit-poll-wi-in-play-in-november/
The Huff Post's own election results chart comparing the 2010 results showed that Walker outperformed is previous results in the vast majority of WI counties. http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/wisconsin-recall-results#graph
The 2012 improvement is due in large part to a massive Tea Party GOTV effort that the news media (with the occasional exception of Fox News) ignored. https://thecitizenpamphleteer.wordpress.com/2012/06/03/the-tea-party-ground-game/
The Tea Party has been planning and organizing for three years to recall Obama. WI is just a taste of the turnout you can expect.
That's the perfect example of why "Likely Voters" polls always appear to lean Right. It's because the R's have a better turnout record, so there are more R respondents in a Likely Voters polls.