|
||
Stupid Intelligence
The recent national intelligence estimate that concluded that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003 is just about the stupidest intelligence assessment I have ever read. It falls hook, line and sinker for a transparent bait and switch tactic employed not only by Iran, but by several other nuclear powers in the past. The tactic is obvious and well-known to all intelligence officials with an IQ above room temperature. It goes like this: There are two tracks to making nuclear weapons: One is to conduct research and develop technology directly related to military use. That is what the United States did when it developed the atomic bomb during the Manhattan Project. The second track is to develop nuclear technology for civilian use and then to use the civilian technology for military purposes.
What every intelligence agency knows is that the most difficult part of developing weapons corresponds precisely to the second track, namely civilian use. In other words, it is relatively simple to move from track 2 to track 1 in a short period of time. As Valerie Lincy and Gary Milhollin, both experts on nuclear arms control, put it in a New York Times op-ed on December 6, 2007:
"During the past year, a period when Iran's weapons program was supposedly halted, the government has been busy installing some 3,000 gas centrifuges at its plant at Natanz. These machines could, if operated continuously for about a year, create enough enriched uranium to provide fuel for a bomb. In addition, they have no plausible purpose in Iran's civilian nuclear effort. All of Iran's needs for enriched uranium for its energy programs are covered by a contract with Russia.
"Iran is also building a heavy water reactor at its research center at Arak. This reactor is ideal for producing plutonium for nuclear bombs, but is of little use in an energy program like Iran's, which does not use plutonium for reactor fuel. India, Israel and Pakistan have all built similar reactors -- all with the purpose of fueling nuclear weapons. And why, by the way, does Iran even want a nuclear energy program, when it is sitting on an enormous pool of oil that is now skyrocketing in value? And why is Iran developing long-range Shahab missiles, which make no military sense without nuclear warheads to put on them?"...the halting of its secret enrichment and weapon design efforts in 2003 proves only that Iran made a tactical move. It suspended work that, if discovered, would unambiguously reveal intent to build a weapon. It has continued other work, crucial to the ability to make a bomb, that it can pass off as having civilian applications."
Duh! What then can explain so obvious an intelligence gaffe. One explanation could lie in the old saw that "military intelligence is to intelligence as military music is to music." But I simply don't believe that our intelligence agencies are populated by the kind of nincompoops who would fall for so obvious an Iranian ploy. The more likely explanation is that there is an agenda hiding in the report. What then might that agenda be? To find a hidden agenda one should always look for the beneficiaries. Who wins from this deeply flawed report? Well, certainly Iran does, but it is unlikely that Iranian interests could drive any American agenda. Lincy and Milhollin surmise that:
"We should be suspicious of any document that suddenly gives the Bush administration a pass on a big national security problem it won't solve during its remaining year in office. Is the administration just washing its hands of the intractable Iranian nuclear issue by saying, '[i]f we can't fix it, it ain't broke?'"
My own view is that the authors of the report were fighting the last war. No, not the war in Iraq, but rather what they believe was Vice President Cheney's efforts to go to war with Iran. This report surely takes the wind out of those sails. But that was last year's unfought war. Nobody in Washington has seriously considered attacking Iran since Condolleezza Rice and Robert Gates replaced Cheney as the foreign policy power behind the throne.
Whatever the agenda and whatever the motive this report may well go down in history as one of the most dangerous, misguided and counterproductive intelligence assessments in history. It may well encourage the Iranians to move even more quickly in developing nuclear weapons. If the report is correct in arguing that the only way of discouraging Iran from developing nuclear weapons is to maintain international pressure, then the authors of the report must surely know that they have single-handedly reduced any incentive by the international community to keep the pressure up.
If Neville Chamberlain weren't long dead I would wonder whether he had a hand in writing this "peace in our time" intelligence fiasco.
I wish the intelligence assessment were correct. So does most of the media, which accepted its naïve conclusion with uncritical enthusiasm. The world would be a far safer place if Iran had indeed ended its efforts to develop deliverable nuclear weapons. But wishing for a desirable outcome does not make it so. Pretending that a desirable outcome is happening, when the best information indicates that it's not, only encourages the worst outcome.
The authors of this perverse report, which is influencing policy so immediately and negatively, will have much to answer for if their assessment results in a reduction of pressure on Iran -- which is the only nation actually to threaten to use nuclear weapons to attack its enemies -- to stop its obvious march toward becoming the world's most dangerous nuclear military power.
Loading comments…
Want to reply to a comment? Hint: Click "Reply" at the bottom of the comment; after being approved your comment will appear directly underneath the comment you replied to
Dershowitz asks why Iran would need a civil nuclear program when it's sitting on all that oil. Would Alan advise someone offering cash to purchase wood for their fireplace that they should just burn the cash instead?
With oil prices nearly $90 a barrel - courtesy of insane U.S. policies in the middle east championed by Alan - Iran would be foolish to consume its own liquid gold rather than sell it. Alan might as well advise the U.S. to stop drilling for oil because it is sitting on all that coal. Or stop mining for coal because it has all that timber.
The ol' Prof makes a very dishonest and disingenuous argument in his post. On the subject of the middle east, it appears to be the only kind of argument he can make.
What have we here, intelligent stupidity?
Alan, you are so insecure and desperate that after you blog you feel the need to post comments as "LeoMarvin" defending challenges to your blog? Or do you have one of your students working for you? It is reality that Israel has occupied Palestine for decades, and depending on whether you go back to 1948 or 1967, it can be 59 or 40 years, to be exact. I am sure that reality is not one you can face, so attacking people on whether Israel has been an occupying force for 50 years, or anywhere in between, surely distracts from the truth of the situation and easier for you.
Thirty Six years ago the prime minister of Israel said this:
This country exists as the fulfillment of a promise made by God Himself. It would be ridiculous to ask it to account for its legitimacy."
-- Golda Meir, Le Monde, 15 October 1971
The time has come for the US Taxpayers to stop propping up Israel and to give God an opportunity to fiancially support his chosen people in their never-ending wars to extend the borders of the promised land.
Whar kind of world are we living in? If the intelligence is not what you want you create your own reality? The Iranians have the right to enrich uranium and they should not give up that right. Israel has occupied Palestine for 50 years, has started wars and has WMD and I don't see you, Alan, writing about it. It is obvious you are not objective and your blogs are nothing but misinformation and propaganda for Israel.
Intelligent stupidity.
Deutsche Welle
Europe | 04.06.2006
Iran's Supreme Leader: "Using Nuclear Weapons is Un-Islamic"
Khamenei: Nuclear weapons un-Islamic
"We have friendly relations with all the region and Asia," he said. "We have good and healthy relations with Europe, and in the close future, because they need our gas, these relations will become even better. They accuse us of developing nuclear bombs. This is an absurd lie. We do not need nuclear weapons and bombs. We don't have any target to use them on.
"Using nuclear weapons is against Islamic rules," he continued, according to AFP news service. "We will not impose the costs of building and maintenance of nuclear weapons on our people. Our explosive source is the power of our faith."
Chronology of Iran's nuclear program
Reuters
August 2002 - The exiled opposition National Council of Resistance of Iran reports the existence of uranium enrichment facility at Natanz and heavy water plant at Arak.
June 2003 - An IAEA report, after February inspection of Natanz and Arak, says Iran has failed to comply with nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
December 2003 - Iran signs protocol allowing snap inspections of nuclear facilities.
November 2004 - Iran promises EU negotiators it will suspend all nuclear fuel processing and reprocessing work.
Sept. 2, 2005 - IAEA report confirms Iran has resumed uranium conversion at Isfahan.
Jan. 10, 2006 - Iran removes UN seals at Natanz enrichment plant and resumes nuclear fuel research.
Feb. 4 - IAEA votes to report Iran to the UN Security Council. Iran ends snap UN nuclear inspections the next day.
Feb. 14 - Iran restarts small-scale feeding of uranium gas into centrifuges at Natanz after 2-1/2-year suspension.
April 11 - Iran announces it has produced low-grade enriched uranium suitable for use in power stations; IAEA confirms.
June 5 - E.U. foreign policy chief Javier Solana delivers a package of incentives from world powers if Iran agrees to halt uranium enrichment.
July 31 - The UN Security Council demands that Iran suspend its nuclear activities by Aug. 31.
Aug. 31 - IAEA announces Iran has not met deadline to suspend its atomic fuel program.
March 24, 2007 - The Security Council unanimously approves new arms and financial sanctions against Iran.
April 18 - IAEA says Iran has begun making nuclear fuel in its underground uranium enrichment plant.
May 23 - A confidential IAEA report says Iran has not suspended enrichment-related work.
Nov 2 - Britain, France, Germany, the U.S., Russia and China agree to push ahead with a third round of tougher sanctions.
Nov 15 - IAEA says Iran has made strides towards transparency but it remains unable to ascertain Iran does not have a secret, parallel military enrichment program.
Nov 30 - European Union expresses disappointment with Iran after talks with its main nuclear negotiator in London.
A little kid could figure out Iran's strategy. They have been stalling European diplomats for years now. We will wake up in a few years or less and hear the dreaded news, "Iran has just detonated an atomic bomb underground, the blast yield was estimated at ...". Then the inevitable knashing of teeth on the Huff Post where the liberals will rewrite history and try to blame the republicans. The amazing vanity of these liberals; they are convinced that if Iran's leaders would just meet with them and realize how charming they are, then surely they will drop their drive to nuclear weapons. The best European diplomats have been meeting with them and it does no good. They will not stop until they have The Bomb. once they have 1 bomb, they will be able to build 200 bombs. The Arabs and others will want the bomb as well. This isn't fantasy, this is just common sense and we will be sitting on a nuclear powderkeg in the ME if Iran's drive to the atomic bomb is not stopped. Since diplomacy has not worked, the only option left is a military attack on their facilities. Their president already has said multiple times that no matter what, Iran's dictatorship will not stop. What is the point of further dithering?
assuming that Iran has any intention of having nuclear weapons someday, do you think it might have something to do with the Israelis having them for the last 30+ years?
Mr. Dershowitz is a brilliant mind I more often than not read anything he writes with an expectation I will learn something. His argument doesn't make sense to me here though.
The idea that 16 separate agencies, including many intelligence professionals within the normally hawkish Pentagon, would offer a UNANIMOUS opinion on Iran's nuclear ambitions, and that these opinions had an ulterior motive against national security, is ludicrous.
How can hundreds of thousands of employees collude to such an aim? I don't believe that is credible, Alan.
At the same time I support the possibility that Iran does have nuclear ambitions for military use. The correct approach here is not a black/white view of Iran, but a nuanced analysis that allows us to prepare for multiple scenarios.
Final point, Alan. If Bush/Cheney, et al, had not spent the last seven years DESTROYING this nations political and military reputation, perhaps the world would respect our intelligence. Instead, no matter how credible our analysts are, no one would believe them. And American don't know who to believe.
Blame the President, not the analysts.
The last few NIEs have been unreliable, but there is something especially wrong with this one. On the face of it, it is just wrong to say Iran has stopped seeking a bomb, but they are continuing to enrich uranium.
Ex-Italian President: Intel Agencies Know 9/11 An Inside Job
Man who set up Operation Gladio tells Italy's largest newspaper attacks were run by CIA, Mossad
Paul Joseph Watson
Prison Planet
Tuesday, December 4, 2007
'Former Italian President and the man who revealed the existence of Operation Gladio Francesco Cossiga has gone public on 9/11, telling Italys most respected newspaper that the attacks were run by the CIA and Mossad and that this was common knowledge amongst global intelligence agencies.';
Former Italian President and the man who revealed the existence of Operation Gladio Francesco Cossiga has gone public on 9/11, telling Italy's most respected newspaper that the attacks were run by the CIA and Mossad and that this was common knowledge amongst global intelligence agencies.
...
Cossiga's tendency to be outspoken upset the Italian political establishment and he was forced to resign after revealing the existence of, and his part in setting up, Operation Gladio - a rogue intelligence network under NATO auspices that carried out bombings across Europe in the 60's, 70's and 80's. Gladio's specialty was to carry out what they coined "false flag operations," terror attacks that were blamed on their domestic and geopolitical opposition.
Cossiga's revelations contributed to an Italian parliamentary investigation of Gladio in 2000, during which evidence was unearthed that the attacks were being overseen by the U.S. intelligence apparatus.
...
Cossiga's new revelations appeared last week in Italy's oldest and most widely read newspaper, Corriere della Sera.
"[Bin Laden supposedly confessed] to the Qaeda September [attack] to the two towers in New York [claiming to be] the author of the attack of the 11, while all the [intelligence services] of America and Europe ... now know well that the disastrous attack has been planned and realized from the CIA American and the Mossad with the aid of the Zionist world in order to put under accusation the Arabic Countries and in order to induce the western powers to take part ... in Iraq [and] Afghanistan."
Here's the best approach to Iranian dilemma.
From the MOST WISE Muslim ever lived:
Mullah Nassredin
READ AND LEARN, OH YOU RULERS!!!!
The Horse That Learned to Sing
Once long ago there was a thief, who was caught and brought before the king. the king, a law & order enthusiast, ordered that the thief be put to death immediately. This thief however had style. He immediately came back with a proposition.
"Your majesty", he said, "most mighty and wise ruler. You have spoken. Before I depart I would like to offer you a gift. If your eminence can spare me for a year and a day, I will teach your horse to sing."
The king roared with laughter. It was a preposterous bargain from a thief with nothing to sell. Yet, thought the king, this is costing me nothing. Why not?
Back in the dungeons, the assembled felons were freaked. "How the hell", they asked the thief, "are you going to teach a horse to sing?"
The thief flicked a cigarette ash off his cuff, and winked. "Brothers", he said, "now I have a year and a day. In a year and a day the king might die; there might be a palace coup. The horse might die. Or, who knows, that damned horse might learn to sing hymns."
The publicly released version of the Iraq NIE of October 2002(http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB129/nie_first%20release.pdf) with nuggets of bs like "All intelligence experts agree that Iraq is seeking nuclear weapons and that these tubes could be used in a centrifuge enrichment
program." was a regurgitation of what was (even then) recognized as suspect or not credible information by many in the intel community. Important caveats were not included in the NIE that was released to the public; this document was used as part of the Curveball-Judy Miller-Cheney-Ahmad Chalabi circle of bs rationale for attacking Iraq.
Now we have an Iran NIE that was stonewalled for a year by the the same folks who were "working the refs" in 2000-2002 that was released over their objections and, I think without similar White House "edits." I'm inclined to think that this NIE is solid; it agrees with what the IAEA has concluded (http://www.antiwar.com/prather/?articleid=11923).
Dershowitz is so obviously promoting his rabid views that he imagines as being helpful in protecting Israel from Iran. Not only is he wrong on the facts, he is promoting an agressive, imperialist foreign policy that would be as wise and far-sighted (from the German point of view) as it was for the Germans to attack Poland in 1939; attacking Iran, thereby further polarizing US-Iran relations, will help NOTHING.
You must be logged in to comment. Log in or connect with
