The recent national intelligence estimate that concluded that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003 is just about the stupidest intelligence assessment I have ever read. It falls hook, line and sinker for a transparent bait and switch tactic employed not only by Iran, but by several other nuclear powers in the past. The tactic is obvious and well-known to all intelligence officials with an IQ above room temperature. It goes like this: There are two tracks to making nuclear weapons: One is to conduct research and develop technology directly related to military use. That is what the United States did when it developed the atomic bomb during the Manhattan Project. The second track is to develop nuclear technology for civilian use and then to use the civilian technology for military purposes.
What every intelligence agency knows is that the most difficult part of developing weapons corresponds precisely to the second track, namely civilian use. In other words, it is relatively simple to move from track 2 to track 1 in a short period of time. As Valerie Lincy and Gary Milhollin, both experts on nuclear arms control, put it in a New York Times op-ed on December 6, 2007:
"During the past year, a period when Iran's weapons program was supposedly halted, the government has been busy installing some 3,000 gas centrifuges at its plant at Natanz. These machines could, if operated continuously for about a year, create enough enriched uranium to provide fuel for a bomb. In addition, they have no plausible purpose in Iran's civilian nuclear effort. All of Iran's needs for enriched uranium for its energy programs are covered by a contract with Russia.
"Iran is also building a heavy water reactor at its research center at Arak. This reactor is ideal for producing plutonium for nuclear bombs, but is of little use in an energy program like Iran's, which does not use plutonium for reactor fuel. India, Israel and Pakistan have all built similar reactors -- all with the purpose of fueling nuclear weapons. And why, by the way, does Iran even want a nuclear energy program, when it is sitting on an enormous pool of oil that is now skyrocketing in value? And why is Iran developing long-range Shahab missiles, which make no military sense without nuclear warheads to put on them?"...the halting of its secret enrichment and weapon design efforts in 2003 proves only that Iran made a tactical move. It suspended work that, if discovered, would unambiguously reveal intent to build a weapon. It has continued other work, crucial to the ability to make a bomb, that it can pass off as having civilian applications."
Duh! What then can explain so obvious an intelligence gaffe. One explanation could lie in the old saw that "military intelligence is to intelligence as military music is to music." But I simply don't believe that our intelligence agencies are populated by the kind of nincompoops who would fall for so obvious an Iranian ploy. The more likely explanation is that there is an agenda hiding in the report. What then might that agenda be? To find a hidden agenda one should always look for the beneficiaries. Who wins from this deeply flawed report? Well, certainly Iran does, but it is unlikely that Iranian interests could drive any American agenda. Lincy and Milhollin surmise that:
"We should be suspicious of any document that suddenly gives the Bush administration a pass on a big national security problem it won't solve during its remaining year in office. Is the administration just washing its hands of the intractable Iranian nuclear issue by saying, '[i]f we can't fix it, it ain't broke?'"
My own view is that the authors of the report were fighting the last war. No, not the war in Iraq, but rather what they believe was Vice President Cheney's efforts to go to war with Iran. This report surely takes the wind out of those sails. But that was last year's unfought war. Nobody in Washington has seriously considered attacking Iran since Condolleezza Rice and Robert Gates replaced Cheney as the foreign policy power behind the throne.
Whatever the agenda and whatever the motive this report may well go down in history as one of the most dangerous, misguided and counterproductive intelligence assessments in history. It may well encourage the Iranians to move even more quickly in developing nuclear weapons. If the report is correct in arguing that the only way of discouraging Iran from developing nuclear weapons is to maintain international pressure, then the authors of the report must surely know that they have single-handedly reduced any incentive by the international community to keep the pressure up.
If Neville Chamberlain weren't long dead I would wonder whether he had a hand in writing this "peace in our time" intelligence fiasco.
I wish the intelligence assessment were correct. So does most of the media, which accepted its naïve conclusion with uncritical enthusiasm. The world would be a far safer place if Iran had indeed ended its efforts to develop deliverable nuclear weapons. But wishing for a desirable outcome does not make it so. Pretending that a desirable outcome is happening, when the best information indicates that it's not, only encourages the worst outcome.
The authors of this perverse report, which is influencing policy so immediately and negatively, will have much to answer for if their assessment results in a reduction of pressure on Iran -- which is the only nation actually to threaten to use nuclear weapons to attack its enemies -- to stop its obvious march toward becoming the world's most dangerous nuclear military power.
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With oil prices nearly $90 a barrel - courtesy of insane U.S. policies in the middle east championed by Alan - Iran would be foolish to consume its own liquid gold rather than sell it. Alan might as well advise the U.S. to stop drilling for oil because it is sitting on all that coal. Or stop mining for coal because it has all that timber.
The ol' Prof makes a very dishonest and disingenuo
This country exists as the fulfillmen
-- Golda Meir, Le Monde, 15 October 1971
The time has come for the US Taxpayers to stop propping up Israel and to give God an opportunit
Europe | 04.06.2006
Iran's Supreme Leader: "Using Nuclear Weapons is Un-Islamic
Khamenei: Nuclear weapons un-Islamic
"We have friendly relations with all the region and Asia," he said. "We have good and healthy relations with Europe, and in the close future, because they need our gas, these relations will become even better. They accuse us of developing nuclear bombs. This is an absurd lie. We do not need nuclear weapons and bombs. We don't have any target to use them on.
"Using nuclear weapons is against Islamic rules," he continued, according to AFP news service. "We will not impose the costs of building and maintenanc
Reuters
August 2002 - The exiled opposition National Council of Resistance of Iran reports the existence of uranium enrichment facility at Natanz and heavy water plant at Arak.
June 2003 - An IAEA report, after February inspection of Natanz and Arak, says Iran has failed to comply with nuclear Non-Prolif
December 2003 - Iran signs protocol allowing snap inspection
November 2004 - Iran promises EU negotiator
Sept. 2, 2005 - IAEA report confirms Iran has resumed uranium conversion at Isfahan.
Jan. 10, 2006 - Iran removes UN seals at Natanz enrichment plant and resumes nuclear fuel research.
Feb. 4 - IAEA votes to report Iran to the UN Security Council. Iran ends snap UN nuclear inspection
Feb. 14 - Iran restarts small-scal
April 11 - Iran announces it has produced low-grade enriched uranium suitable for use in power stations; IAEA confirms.
June 5 - E.U. foreign policy chief Javier Solana delivers a package of incentives from world powers if Iran agrees to halt uranium enrichment
July 31 - The UN Security Council demands that Iran suspend its nuclear activities by Aug. 31.
Aug. 31 - IAEA announces Iran has not met deadline to suspend its atomic fuel program.
March 24, 2007 - The Security Council unanimousl
April 18 - IAEA says Iran has begun making nuclear fuel in its undergroun
May 23 - A confidenti
Nov 2 - Britain, France, Germany, the U.S., Russia and China agree to push ahead with a third round of tougher sanctions.
Nov 15 - IAEA says Iran has made strides towards transparen
Nov 30 - European Union expresses disappoint
The idea that 16 separate agencies, including many intelligen
How can hundreds of thousands of employees collude to such an aim? I don't believe that is credible, Alan.
At the same time I support the possibilit
Final point, Alan. If Bush/Chene
Blame the President, not the analysts.
Man who set up Operation Gladio tells Italy's largest newspaper attacks were run by CIA, Mossad
Paul Joseph Watson
Prison Planet
Tuesday, December 4, 2007
'Former Italian President and the man who revealed the existence of Operation Gladio Francesco Cossiga has gone public on 9/11, telling Italys most respected newspaper that the attacks were run by the CIA and Mossad and that this was common knowledge amongst global intelligen
Former Italian President and the man who revealed the existence of Operation Gladio Francesco Cossiga has gone public on 9/11, telling Italy's most respected newspaper that the attacks were run by the CIA and Mossad and that this was common knowledge amongst global intelligen
...
Cossiga's tendency to be outspoken upset the Italian political establishm
Cossiga's revelation
...
Cossiga's new revelation
"[Bin Laden supposedly confessed] to the Qaeda September [attack] to the two towers in New York [claiming to be] the author of the attack of the 11, while all the [intellige
From the MOST WISE Muslim ever lived:
Mullah Nassredin
READ AND LEARN, OH YOU RULERS!!!!
The Horse That Learned to Sing
Once long ago there was a thief, who was caught and brought before the king. the king, a law & order enthusiast
"Your majesty", he said, "most mighty and wise ruler. You have spoken. Before I depart I would like to offer you a gift. If your eminence can spare me for a year and a day, I will teach your horse to sing."
The king roared with laughter. It was a prepostero
Back in the dungeons, the assembled felons were freaked. "How the hell", they asked the thief, "are you going to teach a horse to sing?"
The thief flicked a cigarette ash off his cuff, and winked. "Brothers"
program." was a regurgitat
Now we have an Iran NIE that was stonewalle
Dershowitz is so obviously promoting his rabid views that he imagines as being helpful in protecting Israel from Iran. Not only is he wrong on the facts, he is promoting an agressive, imperialis