As political unrest rolls across North Africa and the Middle East, two things have become painfully clear. First, the US foreign policy approach to this region has for too long focused on short-term security instead of long-term development, and second, that our support for friendly, yet wholly undemocratic governments has undermined the stability of our diplomatic position vis-Ã -vis the Muslim world.
Tunisia, Morocco, Yemen and Egypt can all be described by the same political and economic formula. In all four nations, long-serving, stable leaders head up undemocratic political systems. The past decade has seen the populations in these countries grow ever younger, as economic opportunities remain scarce and channels through which to express political will remain even scarcer. Add to this the economic strains of the global recession and the connective tools of news and social media, and the political/cultural pressure cooker becomes readily apparent.
US foreign policy towards the Middle East has generally viewed security as its ultimate goal. All other concerns, economics, culture and changing demographics became largely secondary as long as extremist elements could be controlled or at least kept from targeting American interests. Our emphasis on short-term security has allowed the US to justify alliances with nations led by the likes of 32-year President Ali Abdullah Saleh of Yemen and Egypt's leader of almost 30 years, Hosni Mubarak. Diplomatic relations that trade Arab goodwill and relative stability in return for US aid, legitimacy and support have persisted long enough for the relevant stakeholders to take them almost for granted.
The US emphasis on short-term security has, however, failed to take into account shifting demographics and political attitudes in the Islamic world. Missing from the discussion over US actions against Al-Qaeda in Yemen in 2010, for example, was the fact that no matter how hard the US and Yemeni government cracked down, the nation's position as poor and young will make it an ideal breeding ground for extremists until these problems can be addressed. In a less dangerous but equally important example, the population of Egypt, with a median age of 24, reflects a population trend across the Islamic world of both increasing size and decreasing age. The Internet and the rise of news networks like Al Jazeera has made this population both better informed and better connected than ever before. Given these facts, the recent trends towards open discontent with governments and calls for greater democracy across North Africa and the Middle East are unsurprising.
The true failure thus far has been the inability of the US foreign policy establishment to realize the unsustainable nature of alliances with undemocratic leaders in demographically and ideologically shifting countries. If at one time President Mubarak did in fact represent average Egyptians, the events of the past few days have made it clear that for many this is no longer the case. Mubarak in Egypt, Saleh in Yemen and, until recently, Zine El Abidine Ben Ali in Tunisia represent a loosing demographic and loosing ideology in their respective nations and across the Islamic world.
If it isn't already, the United States will soon be faced with a choice between supporting a push towards sustainable Islamic democracy or relying on its current, antiquated set of relationships in the Islamic world. While no one can ensure than a democratically elected government will be friendly towards or willing to work with the US, shifting our support away from unpopular, autocratic leaders can only help. Until Americans are willing to view security in the Middle East as a product of economic development, demographic stability and political freedom, our long-term goals will remain unattainable.
I hope, once Mubarak started "suppressing," a nice clinical term meaning bashing heads, that we can as Americans...
~advocate that Mubarak step down
~that there soon be free elections in Egypt
~that America's government stop support of the suppressive regime
~hope that an extreme government does not come to power in Egypt
~that I believe the Obama Administration should take a stronger stance in support of the Egyptian protesters...
That does not mean America determines anything. Thats up to Egyptians.
But one can advocate these things, yes? Or am I wrong?
My hats off to the diplomats who wander these word mazes daily.
The US needs to support the Palestinian people as much as we need to support the Egyptian people - down with Mubarak and down with Netanyahu and his Apartheid dictatorship over Palestine
The movement toward democracy in Tunisia and Egypt is not necessarily one toward Islamic fundamentalism---it is not fanatic zealotry to march for rights and self-determination.
NB: I am not saying it cannot turn that way.But it has not begun that way.
Waffling.
So Mubarak calls out his undercover police thugs, bloodies a bunch of Democrats, jails a Nobel Laureate, and soon there are dead.
More waffling.
Mubarak goes on TV and says its all his cabinet's fault and has an instant layoff. We'll form a new government manana, oops, I mean tomorrow, and we'll have real reform this time.
We've heard manana stories before...for 30 years.
By now the Islamic Brotherhood has joined the Democrats in the streets driving them together like frenzied lovers. Obama has lost the initiative in Egypt forever.
By waffling, Obama has chosen. Mubarak will fall. But Obama chose Mubarak, and his successor, over the Democrats. Sound familiar?
After all, we can't have destabilization on Israel's border just as Israeli planes are taking off to hit Iran. (See Wikileaks doc-Israeli general preparing for war)
President Obama's choice, the military solution over the democratic solution. So much for the brilliant speech. Now Obama has a track record to explain.
With debt ceiling rising again, there is more inflation to be exported, more street riots to be dealt with. I hope we're ready for the next 3:00 am call(?)
Once Mubarak turned to violent suppression...I watched (on CNN) undercover plainclothes police beat the crap out of protesters with clubs, once that occurs, I don't think there is a middle position or tightrope any more. Its my hope that Mubarak steps down and that is followed by free elections.
The dollar is the world currency. The US debt has increased from about 3 trillion since Bush took office to maybe 14 trillion today in rough numbers. That's about a 4 times increase. Goods and services have not even remotely increased by that amount therefore you have classic inflation with too many dollars chasing too few goods. You can get the dollar to tweek up in the short term with unemployment, but the fundamental issue remains the discontinuity between the money supply and production output...thus America is exporting inflation for any dollar denominated transaction anywhere in the world. Food inflation has been quoted at 17% in Egypt this year and as high as 25% in some other countries. I don't think it was a random event that the early protesters in Egypt were identified as lower middleclass and the unemployed...who one might gather are struggling to eat.
This may not be limited to Egypt. We may see this inflation/demonstration/destabilization cycle in other middle eastern countries and indeed other non-arab states as well.
And once the regime in power turns to violence against its own people, it discredits itself and a "middle course" of action is no longer viable. And I believe trying to steer such a middle course drives the moderates into the arms of the extremists and in so doing makes the transition and new regime more radicalized. I for one do not favor more radical regimes anywhere in the world including America.
http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/news/israeli-knesset-member-expresses-support-mubarak
As usual American leaders are openly supporting the fascist regime of Mubarak. All these leaders have praised Mubarak for his help to America and Israel in the middle-east. Joe Biden has even said that Mubarak is NOT DICTATOR. Are we drunk in Arab OIL and Israeli power? If Mubarak is so great, why we cannot install him in our White House too.
In short, Muslim masses have found out the hypocrisy of America and the western world reading more than 1500 secret documents released by the Arab Press. Not only Mubarak but all the installed kings, presidents and dictators have to go along with American hegemony and our thirst of OIL and GREED,