The Molten Core of Barack: Why Obama Can't Win
In which science-fiction movie do aliens visit the people of earth and insist, "Take me to your leader"? If they landed today, America's news media would direct them to Barack Obama, the first American to run a global campaign for President. Like Coca-Cola and Nike, brand Obama has gone global. His web-site retails a Wall-Mart sized inventory of candidate-themed winter and summer gear, though the well-dressed Obama enthusiast is advised he may have to wait one to two weeks to slip on the candidate-for-all seasons.
Obama returned from Europe triumphant. An America that yearns to regain the world's respect saw one foreign leader after another throw open their arms to the American President-in-waiting who arrived on his own Air Force One. Obama was not only treated with respect, he was received enthusiastically, a public affront to an administration, lest we forget, still in power. One way for the Illinois Senator to overcome doubts about his experience is to let Americans see him doing the job. That he did, making the world his stage, fitting the role of President comfortably and demonstrating presidential stature. Yet Obama's international success is only one wave of the storm that has been pounding John McCain's campaign.
McCain took another blow when Iraqi Prime Minister Malaki stamped the Good Housekeeping seal of approval on Obama's Iraq exit strategy. A real "mission accomplished" in Iraq is a political minus for McCain: If the war is done, why do we need a warrior President? It would be one of the great ironies of the election for McCain to be defeated by his own success in Iraq, the triumph of the surge strategy that he singly and doggedly championed. Yet John McCain may soon find himself in the position of buying the voters the tie they just got for Christmas: In the latest NBC/WSJ survey, the war in Iraq is no longer the most important election issue, plunging 14%. It is a success that allows the economy, not security, to take center stage, recalling the theme with which Labour deposed Churchill in July of 1945, "Victory In War Must Be Followed By A Prosperous Peace". That is not necessarily a plus for the candidate who declared "The issue of economics is not something I've understood as well as I should." Perhaps Senator McCain is trying to lower our expectations.
Add the steepest drop in home prices in 20 years, the weakest auto sales in 15 years, gas prices that have tripled since the Bush Administration took office, the "lets-stay-in-bed" lack of enthusiasm among McCain's own voters who support him as "the lesser of two evils", and a president whose approval ratings have rocketed to one point above his all-time low, and this election should be slam dunk for the gangly, three-point jump shot artist once known as "Barry O'Bomber."
Could Barack Obama possibly get any luckier? It turns out, yes, he can. The caricature of everything wrong with the Republican party, the longest-serving, biggest-spending, pork-devouring Republican in Washington, Senator Ted Stevens, has been indicted on seven felony charges. A timely poster-boy for Republican corruption, he will be cooked publicly on his own clandestinely secured Viking grill.
Barack Obama should not have to hit a three-pointer to win this election. It should be a lay-up. Yet if Senator Obama is doing so well, why is he doing so poorly? And if John McCain is doing so poorly, why is he doing so well?
The Rasmussen Reports Daily Tracking has McCain down only 1%, 43% to Obama's 44%. Real Clear Politics National Average of surveys pegs McCain less than 3% behind, with Gallup showing it tied, and USA Today actually placing McCain ahead of Obama, 49% to 45%. CNN reports McCain is in a better position in Colorado, Michigan, and Wisconsin than he was a month ago and they have moved Minnesota toward McCain into the toss-up category. Give them credit, despite the occasional criticism from this McCain supporter and others, John McCain's maverick band of campaign warriors are keeping this race competitive and, yes, even winning a hand or two, in the face of the worst political environment Republicans could have envisioned and the best global media exposure any Democratic presidential candidate has managed. McCain's recent attacks have worked. McCain's attacks on Obama's tax increases, his elitism and celebrity, his canceled visit to wounded troops, as well as McCain's sharp response to Obama's imagined Republican racial attacks, all dumped cold-water on the Obama campaign, stunting momentum from his European swing and creating a Berlin backlash.
Despite the McCain campaign's effectiveness, however, the best campaign against Barack Obama is not being run by his opponent, but by Barack Obama. It is Obama's campaign that presents their candidate as an ever-changing work-in-progress. It is his own campaign that occludes our ability to know this man, depicting him as authentic as a pair of designer jeans.
To earn the Democratic nomination, as Fred Thompson points out, Obama ran as George McGovern without the experience, a left-of-center politician who would meet unconditionally with Iran, pull us precipitously out of Iraq, prohibit new drilling for oil, and grow big government in Washington by all but a trillion dollars. In his general election TV ad debut, however, Obama pirouetted like Baryshnikov. With a commercial Mike Huckabee could have run in a Republican primary, Obama now emphasizes his commitment to strong families and heartland values, "Accountability and self-reliance. Love of country. Working hard without making excuses." In this yet unwritten chapter of his next autobiography, Obama tells us he is the candidate of "welfare to work" who supports our troops and "cut taxes for working families." The shift in his political personae has been startling. Obama has moved right so far and so fast, he could end up McCain's Vice-Presidential pick.
General-election Obama now billboards his doubts about affirmative action. He has embraced the Bush Doctrine of pre-emption saying, "I will do everything in my power to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon...everything." He tells his party "Democrats are not for a bigger government." Oil drilling is a consideration. His FISA vote and abandonment of public campaign finance introduce us to an Obama of recent invention. And as he abandons his old identity for the new, breeding disenchantment among his formerly passionate left-of-center supporters and, equally, doubts among the center he courts, he risks becoming nothing at all, a candidate who is everything and nothing in the same moment. In one of the most powerful marketing books of the past few years, Authenticity, an exploration of our demand for what's real in an increasingly contrived world, authors Gilmore and Pine quote philosophy professor Crispin Sartwell about Al Gore. "Every attempt to regain authenticity," Crispin says, "only casts a new, infinitely repeated image through the hall of mirrors that is his political life and our media experience of that life." Those reflections set the authenticity of John McCain in high-relief. McCain has revealed himself to his core.
In the defining moment of his life, McCain was willing to give everything for one thing, and that one thing was his country. Contrast that with Obama, who has told America that he is "a proud citizen of the United States and a fellow citizen of the world." Obama is the talented salesman who seduced one state after another saying "Iowa, this is our moment," "Virginia, this is our moment," "Texas, this is our moment," and then tells Europe, "people of Berlin, people of the world, this is our moment." How many times can Barack Obama sell the same moment to everyone, before he becomes Mel Brooks in "The Producers"? Who is Barack Obama? His campaign, as it reupholsters him before our eyes, says we can never know -- perhaps because Barack Obama does not know himself.
Dreams from My Father is a staggeringly beautiful book, lyrical, powerful and poetic. It is also the story of a man who has been many men, all named Barack Obama. In his own eyes, he is one race, but also another. He is an American, but also a Kenyan. He is from Hawaii and also the Kansas heartland. He is Harvard elite, then the Chicago streets. At times he decries the very clay from which he was made, only to remake himself again.
At each place and stage, as Barack Obama chronicles the chapters of his life, he tells us how he has re-invented himself, becoming the role he inhabits, though not falsely or in-authentically, like Bill Clinton. He actually seems to transform himself, becoming what must be next. He has been called distant, aloof and somewhat unapproachable, perhaps because we cannot approach what he does not have, a solid core. His soul seems to be molten and made up of dreams, which is at once breathtakingly inspiring and forbiddingly indeterminate. When this young man with the flowing, passionate core, when this candidate without the solid-center changes positions and transforms himself as we watch, it leaves Americans much more in doubt about who he is and how he would lead us. It also reveals an Obama of unapproachable arrogance and inestimable self-regard: He appears confident voters will appreciate his superiority regardless of where he journeys or what he becomes to meet his political ambitions.
John McCain is a complete and well-formed man. Barack Obama is completing himself. As he moves to fit what he perceives to be a right-of-center country, he distances himself from the simple and authentic passion of a young candidate who once pledged "Change We Can Believe In."
This is the trap Barack Obama has made for himself, the one he cannot escape, the one Hillary Clinton foresaw, the one that may doom him. The Obama campaign knows it too. In fear the dream is being lost drop-by-drop, they are going negative on John McCain. Maybe the aliens should ask to meet McCain, as well.
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A poll out today by the Associated Press has Obama up by six. Republicans suggesting he can't win are at the height of wishful thinking. Sorry Alex, your man is gonna lose.
A poll by the AP? Hmm, wonder if we can rely on a poll by the media that is totally in love with BO? It seems that if the Republicans won't vote for him, many Clinton supporters won't vote for him, and a large group of his own supporters are disillusioned with him, that he really could be short a FEW voters needed to win. You know, some things just can't be bought and maybe the Presidency is one of them.
This whole "well formed man" vs. "work in progress" is nothing more than the current iteration of the empty suit campaign against Obama. The fact is that even with the Ivey League background Obama would have a great deal of difficulty being hired as a CEO of a medium-sized company for the simple reason that he has no significant management experience. Now political experience can substitute for management experience in voters' minds, but Obama doesn't have any of that either. There are no big laws with Obama's name in the title, no public demonstrations of leadership in the Senate. Of the ten years Obama's held elective office, he's spent five of them running for higher office. THIS is Obama's biggest weakness, and everyone, including him, knows it. We can expect to see the McCain campaign figure out a million different ways to hammer this point home, week after week, right up until the first Tuesday in November.
And there's more than just negative ads that McCain can use to exploit this weakness. For example, he could pick a relatively green but exciting running mate like Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, knowing full well that the Obama camp can't criticize such a choice based on her relatively brief political experience without it being pointed out that Obama has even less.
If Obama does lose in November, it will be due to the unbearable lightness of his resume, nothing more, nothing less.
yours/
peter.
"We can't raise ourselves up by tearing the other fellow down." -Barack Obama
"unless the other fellow is a woman"-BO
The one overriding fact that will not let Obama win, is the CABAL that conspired to put Bushie in the WH and then start to run this country. (Read: PNAC). With all of the powers that the excutive branch has assumed for itself without opposition, there is NO WAY IN HELL these brokers will allow that power to be wrestled from their control. Whatever it takes - The end justifies the means.
Remember Orwell's admonition "All the animals are EQUAL; except for the Pigs, who are more equal".
Hey, dude! Check back into reality!
Has anyone read the David Brooks op-ed in the NY Times today?
http://www
Exact same piece. Seems like this might be a supplied talking point.
However, I can't say I fully disagree with the point. Where I do disagree, though, is in framing this as a "negative" trait. Isn't it time we had a leader who listens and understands not just the burdens of "their party" but of the country as a whole? The US is a diverse place, a melting pot, and it is only appropriate that our leader be a product of that pot -- an amalgam of the numerous and varied candles that have dripped their wax in over the years. It's an intellectual definition of a man, certainly, and it's by all means a "post-partisan" definition
I take umbrage with several of the statements Castellanos makes in this posting.
"With a commercial Mike Huckabee could have run in a Republican primary, Obama now emphasizes his commitment to strong families and heartland values," - that's just another way to say he's "acting white" isn't it?
"we cannot approach what he does not have, a solid core. His soul seems to be molten and made up of dreams, which is at once breathtakingly inspiring and forbiddingly indeterminate," - this makes Senator Obama sound like a cherubic child.
"Could Barack Obama possibly get any luckier?" This is the silliest - if your assertion that Obama cannot win is true then, he's not very lucky at all.
Great article. He like everyone ,wishes not to say, is that race, as a combinatioon of the above wil also become an important element of the election. Obama needs to be in a double- digit lead come November to overcome the racism and bigotry that prevail our social and political persuasions. It is out there, and it will come, beware.
We shall see! But Obama needs only a lead of one percentage point to win. Keep you eyes on the prize...
If McCain weren't such a weak candidate Obama wouldn't stand a chance. Given McCain's weakness, even among Republicans, Obama should have a commanding double-digit lead. That he doesn't begs the question, why not? Imagine if you can a Reagan/Obama match up. Obama would be crushed.
That's just a ridiculous thing to day, to imagine a Reagan/Obama match-up. You don't take into account history, DerKreiger. Reagen cannot -- and certainly does not -- exist in today's political climate. It's foolish to even consider the hypothetical.
What people fail to realize is that Obama is the Democrat's Reagan. Look at the 1980s election and you'll see that up until the first debates, Carter was leading Reagan. The narrative against Reagan was that he was a right wing nutjob that would start WWIII. People had questions about Reagan's foreign policy experience ( as they do with Obama). One the public got over their fear of Reagan, they gave him a landslide victory.
The same could be true of Obama. People don't quite feel comfortable with him and won't until the debates. The attack ads may work in the short term day to day polling thats done ( gallop daily tracking poll, etc). But for these attacks to resonate, there has to be some grain of truth or at least a perception that the attack is based upon. With the spears/hilton ad, there's simply not. NO one really would compare Obama to either of them, its really an absurd comparison.
McCain is the perfect candidate to run against Obama because he's still got that "maverick" label attached to him. Most people think he's Pro-Choice ( he's not). Truth is that people think because he's labeled a maverick he's more moderate than he really is. It's up to Obama to destroy that image.
no, obama is NOT the democrats' reagan-obama is adored devotedly only by the left wing of the party, while the moderates are holding their noses or defecting outright. reagan was able to capture the right AND the middle. reagan's whole philosophy could be summed up by a simple formula-"America is the greatest place in the world, and its strength derives mainly from what its people can accomplish when the government gets out of the way." he sold it successfully, because he BELIEVED it to his core. obama's message seems to be: "America is in terrible shape (lagging behind the 'civilized' world ), the people can't be trusted to even know what's in own their 'best interests', and only the government imposing 'progressive top-down controls' can save us" it's doomed to fail because it's devoid of reality, and because there's no sense that obama has any 'core belief' in any of it.
Nope- There will be McCainacrats this election because of Obama.
These are the Reagan Democrats of yore.
HRC had this demographic, BO does and will not.
The DNC picks a LOSER every time.
Sigh.
I'd fight William Shatner.
Wait... what was the question?
Obama is running against John McCain and the Mainstream media that has manipulate the American people into thinking that they are for Obama when in reality they are savaging him and getting away with it because he doesnt whine Oh the media is against me. He takes his lumps from them. Then you have a silent campaign that is going around the internet where they continue to savage his character taking all these things into account and running against an American hero with military service he is still leading I say thats no small feat. That is why I think he will win. They've come at him with everything and all the things that is giong on in secret and still they cant knock him out. I'd say the odds are good he is going to win.
Carol
I'm sorry, who is included in this Mainstream Media you are referring to? During the primaries, it seems the press was in lust with Obama and Hillary along with the other candidates couldn't get any positive stories. Now, in the general election, it seems to be BO 24/7 because BO put himself there what with his worldwide tour and McCain seems to not be able to get a word in edgewise. It seems, the negative ads were the only way to get attention for McCain. Now, again, who is included in this MSM that is so against BO?
Whether this observation is made out of disappointment - like Alex's - or disgust and accusation - like mine - there is no denying the essential truth of this analysis. Obama believes in nothing, stands for nothing, says nothing, represents no one - at least in the context of his scattershot, all-over-the-map campaign for the job he seeks.
His Harvard education seems to me a microcosm of this campaign. Affirmative action provided access that he hadn't worked for or earned, but once there, his political views and racial makeup made him appear to be something unique and exciting. Yawn. A biracial red-diaper baby who speaks English - how very unique. And now the Dems have repeated the meaningless Harvard charade and want to make this poseur the editor of the U.S. law review, only this time there are repercussions. Reality check - as a law student, as a lawyer, as a "community organizer", as a law lecturer, as an Illinois State Senator, and a U.S. Senator, Barack Obama has yet to distinguish himself in any way, shape or form, except that he gives speeches that stupid people seem to like.
"Oh, and did I mention that he's black?" This is apparently his sole qualification for the office. "Ironic" doesn't seem strong enough. Dems need to ask themselves now: what will we in November when he loses. Because he can't win.
This is a complete right wing lie Harvard requires a minimum LSAT score of 168 throughout the years no exceptions which is a 95% percentile rank and they also have GPA minimums. The whole idea that anyone got into Harvard law for AA reasons is dead wrong.
http://www
McBush is the only candidate that got where he did based on the influence of his father not his performance. Navy academy graduates who finish 894 out of 899 in their class only make flight school if they have influence. If McBush was not a pilot he does not get shot down and he never even makes it to congress.
0bama on the other hand excelled at Columbia to get into Harvard law became President of the Harvard law review and graduated with honors.
I'm waiting for you to take back your lies.
I'm smart and I think Obama's speeches, most of them, are daring, future oriented, and excellent. My own belief is that a "well formed man or woman" has the ability to look at a problem or an issue from many points of view and to adjust as circumstances change. John McCain is certainly a man, but somehow stunted by seeing the world through the prism of his war experience. He is also an angry and sarcastic guy. Not pretty. There is something embarrassing about how transparent his moves are. The whole black and white thing (no pun intended) is not going to work for us this time around. I believe we need a bigger more flexible thinker. rigidity in thinking is not "manly."
Let's face it, its time for new blood and a new direction, good, bad or indifferent. Of course the status quo folks are content to leave policy and result as they are while the rest of the world passes us by......th
Actually, you're wrong.
One of the things you miss about Obama is that while he does have a fairly liberal voting record, he is also known and respected for his sense of "pragmatism". He works across the aisle to pass legislation, and will support a "flawed bill" if it had parts that were unquestionably solid and meaningful. The FISA bill is but one example of that.
But the larger issue of Obama trying to "fit what he perceives to be a right-of-center country" is a lie and a sloppy appraisal of what Obama has been doing the last two months. As HUFFPOST blogger Hogarth wrote http://www
So your analysis is wrong Alex.
Don't forget, Obama has an unbeatable coalition that McSame can only dream of. Obama's coalition of voters includes young and / or educated whites, African-Americans, Latinos, Asian-Americans, Native-Americans, young eveangelicals, and, according to a report by THE Washington Post yesterday, Obama's is leading McCain with...(dr
So rename your post: "The Unflappable Barack: His Victory will give VOICE & VISION to our Millenial Democracy".
thank you. you said exactly what i was thinking.
Anita
I want my president to be arrogant. I don't want to share a beer with him. I want to feel small and inadequate in his/her presence
don't worry, you probably are...i prefer my president to understand that he/she is a public SERVANT, not a ruler...WE are the bosses
I know one person who's voting for Obama. However, even those who aren't voting for him are absolutely positive he's going to win. My bf ordered bumper stickers to sell about this time next year that say: "Don't blame me. I didn't vote for him". He's going to win. There's no doubt, so all his supporters should just relax and enjoy.
I know of a few more people planning to vote for Obama
http://www
This isn't a race for popular votes. The Republicans reminded the Democrats of that recently.
Obama's campaign remembers and is running for electoral college votes--and winning by a large margin, even according to right-leaning pollsters. Click the link and see for yourself whether the purportedly close national popular vote polling means anything.
I'm so old I remember when they had mercury in thermometers. If you broke one the mercury would spill out. You could watch it roll around in little balls. If you touched it it smushed and reformed. You couldn't catch it and you couldn't make it into a nice solid little mass you could pick up. It was pretty and shiny and elusive. That's Obama to a lot of people. McCain is more like the sidewalk we dumped the mercury on. Just there. Not very interesting or exciting, but solid. Flip flops aside, and his aren't any more egregious than Obama's - after all that's what politicians do- McCain comes across to a lot of people as a known quantity while Obama comes across as elusive. When you're standing on a precipice it feels safer to back up onto the solid ground rather than throw caution to the wind and jump. And that's probably why the numbers are so close and why the election will be a squeaker.
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