The Molten Core of Barack: Why Obama Can't Win
In which science-fiction movie do aliens visit the people of earth and insist, "Take me to your leader"? If they landed today, America's news media would direct them to Barack Obama, the first American to run a global campaign for President. Like Coca-Cola and Nike, brand Obama has gone global. His web-site retails a Wall-Mart sized inventory of candidate-themed winter and summer gear, though the well-dressed Obama enthusiast is advised he may have to wait one to two weeks to slip on the candidate-for-all seasons.
Obama returned from Europe triumphant. An America that yearns to regain the world's respect saw one foreign leader after another throw open their arms to the American President-in-waiting who arrived on his own Air Force One. Obama was not only treated with respect, he was received enthusiastically, a public affront to an administration, lest we forget, still in power. One way for the Illinois Senator to overcome doubts about his experience is to let Americans see him doing the job. That he did, making the world his stage, fitting the role of President comfortably and demonstrating presidential stature. Yet Obama's international success is only one wave of the storm that has been pounding John McCain's campaign.
McCain took another blow when Iraqi Prime Minister Malaki stamped the Good Housekeeping seal of approval on Obama's Iraq exit strategy. A real "mission accomplished" in Iraq is a political minus for McCain: If the war is done, why do we need a warrior President? It would be one of the great ironies of the election for McCain to be defeated by his own success in Iraq, the triumph of the surge strategy that he singly and doggedly championed. Yet John McCain may soon find himself in the position of buying the voters the tie they just got for Christmas: In the latest NBC/WSJ survey, the war in Iraq is no longer the most important election issue, plunging 14%. It is a success that allows the economy, not security, to take center stage, recalling the theme with which Labour deposed Churchill in July of 1945, "Victory In War Must Be Followed By A Prosperous Peace". That is not necessarily a plus for the candidate who declared "The issue of economics is not something I've understood as well as I should." Perhaps Senator McCain is trying to lower our expectations.
Add the steepest drop in home prices in 20 years, the weakest auto sales in 15 years, gas prices that have tripled since the Bush Administration took office, the "lets-stay-in-bed" lack of enthusiasm among McCain's own voters who support him as "the lesser of two evils", and a president whose approval ratings have rocketed to one point above his all-time low, and this election should be slam dunk for the gangly, three-point jump shot artist once known as "Barry O'Bomber."
Could Barack Obama possibly get any luckier? It turns out, yes, he can. The caricature of everything wrong with the Republican party, the longest-serving, biggest-spending, pork-devouring Republican in Washington, Senator Ted Stevens, has been indicted on seven felony charges. A timely poster-boy for Republican corruption, he will be cooked publicly on his own clandestinely secured Viking grill.
Barack Obama should not have to hit a three-pointer to win this election. It should be a lay-up. Yet if Senator Obama is doing so well, why is he doing so poorly? And if John McCain is doing so poorly, why is he doing so well?
The Rasmussen Reports Daily Tracking has McCain down only 1%, 43% to Obama's 44%. Real Clear Politics National Average of surveys pegs McCain less than 3% behind, with Gallup showing it tied, and USA Today actually placing McCain ahead of Obama, 49% to 45%. CNN reports McCain is in a better position in Colorado, Michigan, and Wisconsin than he was a month ago and they have moved Minnesota toward McCain into the toss-up category. Give them credit, despite the occasional criticism from this McCain supporter and others, John McCain's maverick band of campaign warriors are keeping this race competitive and, yes, even winning a hand or two, in the face of the worst political environment Republicans could have envisioned and the best global media exposure any Democratic presidential candidate has managed. McCain's recent attacks have worked. McCain's attacks on Obama's tax increases, his elitism and celebrity, his canceled visit to wounded troops, as well as McCain's sharp response to Obama's imagined Republican racial attacks, all dumped cold-water on the Obama campaign, stunting momentum from his European swing and creating a Berlin backlash.
Despite the McCain campaign's effectiveness, however, the best campaign against Barack Obama is not being run by his opponent, but by Barack Obama. It is Obama's campaign that presents their candidate as an ever-changing work-in-progress. It is his own campaign that occludes our ability to know this man, depicting him as authentic as a pair of designer jeans.
To earn the Democratic nomination, as Fred Thompson points out, Obama ran as George McGovern without the experience, a left-of-center politician who would meet unconditionally with Iran, pull us precipitously out of Iraq, prohibit new drilling for oil, and grow big government in Washington by all but a trillion dollars. In his general election TV ad debut, however, Obama pirouetted like Baryshnikov. With a commercial Mike Huckabee could have run in a Republican primary, Obama now emphasizes his commitment to strong families and heartland values, "Accountability and self-reliance. Love of country. Working hard without making excuses." In this yet unwritten chapter of his next autobiography, Obama tells us he is the candidate of "welfare to work" who supports our troops and "cut taxes for working families." The shift in his political personae has been startling. Obama has moved right so far and so fast, he could end up McCain's Vice-Presidential pick.
General-election Obama now billboards his doubts about affirmative action. He has embraced the Bush Doctrine of pre-emption saying, "I will do everything in my power to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon...everything." He tells his party "Democrats are not for a bigger government." Oil drilling is a consideration. His FISA vote and abandonment of public campaign finance introduce us to an Obama of recent invention. And as he abandons his old identity for the new, breeding disenchantment among his formerly passionate left-of-center supporters and, equally, doubts among the center he courts, he risks becoming nothing at all, a candidate who is everything and nothing in the same moment. In one of the most powerful marketing books of the past few years, Authenticity, an exploration of our demand for what's real in an increasingly contrived world, authors Gilmore and Pine quote philosophy professor Crispin Sartwell about Al Gore. "Every attempt to regain authenticity," Crispin says, "only casts a new, infinitely repeated image through the hall of mirrors that is his political life and our media experience of that life." Those reflections set the authenticity of John McCain in high-relief. McCain has revealed himself to his core.
In the defining moment of his life, McCain was willing to give everything for one thing, and that one thing was his country. Contrast that with Obama, who has told America that he is "a proud citizen of the United States and a fellow citizen of the world." Obama is the talented salesman who seduced one state after another saying "Iowa, this is our moment," "Virginia, this is our moment," "Texas, this is our moment," and then tells Europe, "people of Berlin, people of the world, this is our moment." How many times can Barack Obama sell the same moment to everyone, before he becomes Mel Brooks in "The Producers"? Who is Barack Obama? His campaign, as it reupholsters him before our eyes, says we can never know -- perhaps because Barack Obama does not know himself.
Dreams from My Father is a staggeringly beautiful book, lyrical, powerful and poetic. It is also the story of a man who has been many men, all named Barack Obama. In his own eyes, he is one race, but also another. He is an American, but also a Kenyan. He is from Hawaii and also the Kansas heartland. He is Harvard elite, then the Chicago streets. At times he decries the very clay from which he was made, only to remake himself again.
At each place and stage, as Barack Obama chronicles the chapters of his life, he tells us how he has re-invented himself, becoming the role he inhabits, though not falsely or in-authentically, like Bill Clinton. He actually seems to transform himself, becoming what must be next. He has been called distant, aloof and somewhat unapproachable, perhaps because we cannot approach what he does not have, a solid core. His soul seems to be molten and made up of dreams, which is at once breathtakingly inspiring and forbiddingly indeterminate. When this young man with the flowing, passionate core, when this candidate without the solid-center changes positions and transforms himself as we watch, it leaves Americans much more in doubt about who he is and how he would lead us. It also reveals an Obama of unapproachable arrogance and inestimable self-regard: He appears confident voters will appreciate his superiority regardless of where he journeys or what he becomes to meet his political ambitions.
John McCain is a complete and well-formed man. Barack Obama is completing himself. As he moves to fit what he perceives to be a right-of-center country, he distances himself from the simple and authentic passion of a young candidate who once pledged "Change We Can Believe In."
This is the trap Barack Obama has made for himself, the one he cannot escape, the one Hillary Clinton foresaw, the one that may doom him. The Obama campaign knows it too. In fear the dream is being lost drop-by-drop, they are going negative on John McCain. Maybe the aliens should ask to meet McCain, as well.
Loading comments…
Want to reply to a comment? Hint: Click "Reply" at the bottom of the comment; after being approved your comment will appear directly underneath the comment you replied to
""How many times can Barack Obama sell the same moment to everyone, before he becomes Mel Brooks in "The Producers"?""
Not Mel Brooks - Zero Mostel - or better, Max Bialystock.
Has it ever dawned on anyone that perhaps the Democrats want to lose with Obama rather than win with Hillary?
The Democratic party has been such a disappointment over the last 8 years that I wonder sometimes whose side they're on.
I would rather lose with Obama than win with Hillary.
Ditto - not much difference between the two.
I second that! Of course I don't think we will lose.
Nowif you said I'd rather lose with Kucinich or someone truly progressive I could understand someone willing to go down because of their ideals. However , given B.O and H.C's voting records and platforms you just said you're willing to lose to a Republican for a Republican.
Unfortunately, in a US Presidential election featuring a black guy, the election will always be a referendum on the black guy.
Obama is a "work in progress" and is willing to alter his position so often because in todays ever changing world (think speed of light communications, 24/7 news bubble) being "The Decider" and holding fast to beliefs you held in college, last year, last month or even yesterday is exactly what gets you in trouble with the public and with events and circumstances. havent we had enough of that after 8 years of GW Bush? I would much rather have a President who is willing to alter his views on the world as things shift than one whose decision was made sometime last millenium.
CALL your super delegates and tell them you expect them to push for an Open Convention with Hillary’s name in nomination AND for them to VOTE for her. Get the phone numbers for your Super Delegates HERE. Do it today — it is easy and free — and it will make you feel GOOD!
We WILL affect the outcome of this election, and the DNC ignores us at their peril. Raise your voice!
Sad.
Pathetic
Please call your superdelegates and tell them ufo's are real. And Elvis is still alive. It will make you feel GOOD!
The GOP wants a Democratic convention fight. That's why McCain went negative so early. Rove wants to scare the Democrats to reconsider Clinton, because Rove knows that Hillary can't win. Obama will have all of Kerry's voters and millions of new voters, so a ticket like Obama/Clark would win by a landslide. Independents are the largest group of voters, and they hate Hillary and Obama can win more Indies than McCain, especially after he became McSame.
The media is promoting a close race. It's drives up ratings and ad rates for media buys paid for with our millions in donations to each campaign.
McCain's momentum is media hype.
Thank you.
I thought he was just another Chicago politician that would say or do anything to get elected.
I feel so much better now.
If you look closely at the tracking polls, you'll see something interesting: McCain's numbers never go up by much. When the news tells us that "the race is tightening" or "McCain is gaining," it's always because the "undecided" percentage has increased at Obama's expense. This says to me that McCain has pretty much maxed out his support, somewhere below 45%. About 5-8% of the electorate is leaning toward Obama but every once in a while says, "Wait...I have to watch this guy a while longer." This is precisely the dynamic of the Reagan-Carter race in 1980, when a lot of centrist voters were afraid Reagan was too conservative and took their time committing to him. As he proved himself to be more reasonable and centrist than they feared, the undecideds swung steadily toward him. All Obama has to do now is keep reassuring voters that he's a reasonable, moderate candidate and that cautious center will swing to him.
I think you're right; I've been leaning toward the same conclusion. The media has not picked up on, or is neglecting to report, the fact that McCain seems to have a ceiling of support. It's very rare that he breaks the mid 40's in a poll. On the other hand, Obama has occasionally broken the 50% threshold, and usually polls in the upper 40's.
Also, people in this nation are repeatedly saying in poll after poll that age is more of a concern than race, but the media incessantly focuses on race -- primarily because of its controversial, incendiary, largely unsettled nature in this country. Yet, if those polls are correct, barring some egregious error by the Obama campaign, I think voters will go with the more youthful guy (who also seems to be more well-versed in the issues). I think you're right; they just want to be sure they're making the right choice -- no need to rush into a decision. So, they're vascillating between support for Obama and "undecided". They want to see him "clear the bar". I think the things he's doing is working to get him there; if they haven't already. People may just not be ready to commit just yet though...
I thought it was telling that after a pretty aggressive push by McCain last week, McCain never cleared 44% in the Gallup poll; he dropped back down to 43% yesterday.
keep telling yourself that; if it helps you sleep at night
Anyone suggesting that "McCain is a complete and well formed man" peaks my curiosity as this view does not seem supported so far by much empirical evidence - and is not widely shared even apparently among many McCain supporters. Certainly doesn't appear the product of detached objective analysis. The rest of the article didn't seem reality based or objective either since mcCain has flip flopped more than a beached flounder and certainly more than Obama.
Curious indeed! So why no biosketch for Mr Castellanos? Being a skeptical guy I searched the web and sure enough there he was on wiki - "father of the attack ad" and media consultant of numerous Republican campaigns just as Polarbear7 had researched and reported. Why did Mr Castellanos fail to mention such accomplishments. Why indeed?
Sorry Mr Castellanos "well formed" politicians may need your special talents - but most of us don't value spin, and distortion as much as they do and generally prefer truth to truthiness in packaging. McCain might need you real bad - the rest of the country not so much.
Cain is about as well formed as Barney Rubble.
And how many debates have occurred between Obama and McCain and you're already counting him out. Not that I would totally discard the points you make - I think a number of them are valid - however, we're still early here. I don't know why there was this huge anticipation that Obama's ratings would skyrocket after his trip overseas. He did well, he didn't stumble.The strategy he is pursuing is one that worked brilliantly in the primaries - spend more time on the ground game at this point in the contest and then as the date approaches, you go to the air. McCain is hitting the air constantly these days so I can understand why his numbers are inching up a bit. But it's the summer and folks are soon to be distracted with the Olympics. I think how the Obama campaign handles the weeks immediately after the Olympics are going to be critical. And if we don't see some traction there, then I'd be worried.
Always read all poster's bios.
Does anyone think a right wing blog would allow a viewpoint different than their own? If you do, call me - i have a bridge to sell you.
That being said, I'm pessimistic about Obama being elected for one reason only. He's black. That one fact explains why McCain has a very good chance to win.
McCain's ads are doing exactly what they need to do for him to win.
1) Remind everyone, over and over, that Obama is black.
2) Give the closet racists a new "buzz phrase" they can use in polite company, so they can avoid saying, "I'll never vote for one of "them".
Old buzz phrases have to be replaced from time to time, as people come to realize what they really mean. For example: "He's too extreme." is no longer usable.
By the way, I'm a white male.
Thanks for the candor.
I would have to agree with your there...it's code for being black that's all. I would have to say you are not one of us maybe most americans don't hold your views ALEX.
And I forgot to mention--in most circles, a "work in progress" is called growth, open mindedness, and maturity.
Much better than being stagnate!
Armies fail when they fight the last war instead of the current one. Republicans only know how to win by painting Democrats as mealy mouth double talkers, but that doesn't work with Obama. There's a huge contrast between the way Obama speaks and the Republican potrait of him. The more the party tries to paint Obama as a sniveling two face, the more obvious the contrast will be, and the more eloquent Obama will seem in comparison.
It's nonsense that Obama has changed. He has always been a principled moderate. McCain was a moderate, but he needed to pander to get his nomination. That was a mistake of McCain's and it will lose him the election.
Also, McCain will lose because the Republican party has ceased to stand for anything but retaining power. Their campaign slogan is: We're not Democrats! That's not as inspiring as you might think.
Of course, in recent year's the Democratic slogan has been "We're not Republicans!" (It's good enough for the Nader-haters.)
Unfortunately they say that but don't do much to differentiate themselves....
"McCain defeated by HIS OWN SUCCESS in Iraq". That line had me howling! LOL!
What success in Iraq? The violence is down somewhat since we are now overtly BRIBING the Sunnis. As soon as that money stops, the violence returns. The only success in Iraq is a temporary lull in the violence paid for by borrowed dollars. Temporary being the operative word.
It seems like the right wing never learns from past, foolish "Mission Accomplished" strutting. Who knows maybe they are correct that the voters will be suckers for it again.
Alex, I realize you're a professional consultant to the McCain campaign. I also realize you will be flamed no end here on the Huffington Post. Nonetheless, I think your article captures some of the reasons many Democrats, particularly those who supported Hillary Clinton, are still having great difficulty in embracing Obama. His flip-flopping on issues has been incredible, whether on public financing of campaigns, FISA, the Supreme Court's 4th amendment decision on guns, opening the strategic oil reserve, off-shore drilling, or Iran. I do not share your views on Obama's personality but I do think that he is not helping a nation develop a sense of who he is and that he can be trusted.
Hillary is Barack's problem. The elitist attacks were started by her, the Federal tax holiday was her idea and the "duck blind". whiskey drinking episodes to draw the contast as her being of the people and he an elistist. But worst of all, its the people who say they will vote for McCain, instead of Barack that have forced him to the center to appease her voters and move to the middle. I agree, he should forget Hillary people and go back to the progressive principle that got him here. Remember it was Senator Clinton who complained about the MOVEON.ORG people for her early losses.
"John McCain is a complete and well-formed man."
Yeah, he's really, really old, too.
You must be logged in to comment. Log in or connect with
