THE BLOG

Moving Past the "Bradley Effect"

05/25/2011 12:45 pm ET
  • Ali A. Rizvi Pakistani-Canadian writer, physician and musician

The 'Bradley Effect' is named after Tom Bradley, an African-American candidate in California's 1982 gubernatorial race who, despite consistently polling well, lost the election. Ever since, the term has been used to describe the phenomenon of people who say to pollsters that they will vote for a non-white candidate, but don't follow through in the privacy of the voting booth.

Since Barack Obama established a more decisive lead over John McCain in the polls over the last two weeks, the possibility of the Bradley Effect playing a role in this year's presidential election has been raised again.

However, this time it's unlikely to have a significant impact.

Repeatedly, surveys have shown that a vast majority of voters who consider race a factor in their decisions tend to vote Republican anyway.

Of the Democrats, an AP-Yahoo study from September shows that about 2.5% may not vote for Obama because of his race.

Even if the Bradley Effect doubles this number to 5% on November 4, it will still significantly be overpowered by the over 90% of black voters who are solid Obama supporters.

If that isn't enough (it will be), there has been a record surge in new African-American voters registered this year, resulting in states like North Carolina becoming competitive for Democrats for the first time in decades.

And if that isn't enough? Throw in the Economic Meltdown Effect, the Sarah Palin Effect, and the Tina Fey Effect -- and the Bradley Effect becomes a virtual non-factor.

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