Two years after the June 2009 sham presidential elections in Iran and consequent mass anti-regime uprisings, the honeymoon seems to be over for the regime's beleaguered president. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is now at loggerheads with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who actually secured his "victory" two years ago. Their floundering alliance may also signal a crack in the levee of repression, which for two years has stayed the nationwide anger from washing the mullahs from power.
The souring relations between Ahmadinejad and Khamenei signal a worsening of the regime's internal strife. Other pillars and institutions, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Intelligence Ministry, have inevitably been thrown into the fray.
The widening gaps represent a turning point for a regime that survives on repression and brute force. The regime has not been able to stamp out the social dissent, nor resolve its internal crises. As a result, Khamenei's authority has been gradually deteriorating, allowing Ahmadinejad to demand more influence.
For the past two years, Ahmadinejad has slowly bolstered the position of his own inner circle, rallying his cronies around his long-time friend and senior advisor Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei. At the same time, he has sought to consolidate his power over high-profile ministries like the Foreign, Intelligence and Oil ministries, purging their ministers one by one, despite provoking rare public disdain from Khamenei.
The upshot of the incessant bickering is a weakened regime already loathed by the majority of Iranians. Clearly, Tehran is feeling the heat, especially in light of the wave of change in the entire region.
More than two years have passed since President Obama tried to reach out to the clerical rulers in an attempt to resolve the nuclear standoff. Despite high expectations among some circles inside the Beltway, the regime's behavior has worsened. The regime ruling Iran is much closer to getting the bomb than at the time of President Obama's inauguration.
In April, the principal Iranian opposition Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK), which was the first to expose the regime's clandestine nuclear program in 2002, revealed yet another secret nuclear site. Located near Tehran, the site has been used for building parts for tens of thousands of centrifuges, all hidden from the eyes of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The exposure compelled Tehran to promptly acknowledge its existence.
Earlier this month, when IAEA director general, Yukiya Amano, reiterated "concerns about the possible military dimensions" of Tehran's nuclear program, Iranian nuclear chief Fereydoun Abbasi told reporters, "Our answer is increased work in the sphere of nuclear technology and know-how."
To remove any doubt, Iranian regime's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad told reporters on June 7, "There is no brake and no reverse gear on our nuclear program." When asked whether he would ever consider stopping the enrichment of uranium, his reply was a resounding "No."
And if that wasn't enough, state television reported the next day that Iran is tripling its production capacity of higher-grade uranium, and that the new more advanced centrifuges will be installed at the nuclear site in Qum buried under the mountains.
Tehran's increased nuclear defiance has created a new sense of urgency for a review underway at the State Department regarding the status of the main Iranian opposition. A significant number of Members of Congress have introduced a bi-partisan resolution calling for an end to blacklisting of the MEK, meant as a goodwill gesture to Tehran.
As the winds of change pass through the region, Iran remains a fundamental threat to peace and stability. Khamenei recently declared, "We back movements that are against the United States and Zionism." The Iranian regime is under siege, and hopes to exploit regional unrest to its advantage.
Inside Iran, since February, the uprisings have reignited. People now use every opportunity to protest. Even mourning ceremonies and sports events are turned into major anti-regime demonstrations. The Persian Spring is alive and well.
President Obama has the opportunity to contribute to both the Persian and Arab springs by crafting a new U.S. policy towards Iran. The first step of that policy would be removing any obstacles on the path of the principal Iranian opposition, which has the potential to accelerate democratic change to replace the foremost state sponsor of terrorism: Tehran.
Follow Alireza Jafarzadeh on Twitter: www.twitter.com/A_Jafarzadeh
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The reign of terror, hyperinflation, corruption, and now the discord amongst the various factions of the terrorist gangs terrifying the Iranian people, have reached the tipping point, suggesting to any and all rational individuals, that the end is near for the bestial theocracy ruling Iran.
The argumentative reasoning by some in these pages, attempting to discredit the only Men and women of Honor, who have steadfastly stood against the barbaric regime, for all intents and purposes, can be considered fallacious at best, and treacherous in nature.
The group of heroines and heroes of the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI) around the globe and in particular at Camp Ashraf, under the most intolerable conditions of interdiction of food, fuel, medical supplies and other essentials of life, and not to mention the 120 degree heat of the desert, have a created an epoch that the world at large has yet to come to realize.
In the same vein, the civilized community of nations, some of whose policy-makers have ignored the savageries by the Tehran regime for commercial interest, and others who have glossed over the barbarism for fear of retribution by the thugs, will be accountable in the court of public opinion for their betrayal of the noble and decent people of Iran, when in the near future, their true representatives send the mullahs to the graveyard of history.
Liberte Egalite Fraternite
To Baradaram Abbas
The Iranian people as the Author has stated will prevail and those who started and continued the policy of appeasement granting the Mullah's regime with all sorts of Divine help and support will soon realize how wrong they have been and how they have betrayed their own people alongside the Iranian people.
however, never is too late for those western governments to wake up and smell the coffee by positioning themselves with the Iranian people given the fact that Mullahs are not too far away from acquiring a nuclear bomb!.
The biggest strategic mistake by the U.S and its allied i.e. invading Iraq put a big dent on the struggle of the Iranian people for freedom and democracy and surely put Iraq in a golden plate and gave it to the Iranian Mullahs however, it is still not too late to change course and make the right move by recognizing the legitimate resistance of the Iranian people. I wish to see more of the same from the Author Mr. Alireza Jafarzade.
Reads like an Israeli Likud production.
You don't even explain your sentiment regarding the Ahmadinejad vs. Khamenei conflict.
It would have been slightly interesting for you to flesh that out instead of jumping midstream
into some salacious accusations we hear from the Likud everyday.
Meanwhile, Brookings Institute has finished their polling and the majorities of almost every nation in the region doesn't care or is positive about Iran's pursuit of the nuclear power that Israel possesses. You may not do "democracy", but that's the data anyway.
Once again, thank you very much.
With regards,
Erfan M.
Former government official from Obama, Bush and Clinton administration who are involved in National Security and terrorism issues ,including former Government, former Attorney General, former CIA director, former FBI director former chef of staff, have called for the U.S. to remove the main Iranian opposition group , PMOI/MEK from the FTO . Most recently 110 bipartisan House Members called for the removal of the group from the State Department’s black list.
Its time for State Department for de-designation of PMOI/MEK .
Kasra Nejat
As you mentioned here Sir, the Obama administration MUST stop the fruitless incorrect policy of appeasing the terrorist mullahs and fully/immediately support Iranian resistance against barbaric, backward and dictator mullahs, starting with unconditional support of freedom fighters and brave residence of Ashraf. This world is an astronomically safer place without the terrorist regime of mullahs in Iran.
May God Bless You
Carlos Azad, San Diego
the rest of the 75 million are suppressed by mullahs and basijis like you. tell your masters to give freedom for one day and you will see who is running the cult and who has the support.
There is hope that following the courageous Press Conference by the Congressional Delegation in (led by Dana Rohrabacher) Baghdad following their meeting with al-Maliki and his fellow thugs, and their subsequent reference to the massacre at Ashraf Camp as “Crime against Humanity”, Madam Secretary and her functionaries may have woken up to the reality on the ground!!!!
And obviously, the State Department, would have to honor the decision by the DC Appeals Court, to either establish beyond the shadow of the doubt that the PMOI is guilty, or would have no choice to remove these Iranian Children of the Liberation and vanguards of the “Persian Spring” from the unjustified FTO list. I do hope by God that they do so and soon.
CNGS
Great artical Mr. Jafarzadeh.
I'll just add another quote from IAEA report "The Agency remains concerned about the possible existence in Iran of past or current undisclosed nuclear related activities involving military related organizations including activities related to the development of a nuclear payload for a missile".
PS. I'm pessimistic that current Administration is capable to change its policy towards regime in Tehran. As it will demonstrate three-year long impotence of sitting on American hands and waiting for "response".
I think that you're making unfounded generalization speaking on behalf of all Iranians here.
Firstly, Iranian leadership managed to alienate all European states and even Russia is tiered being played by Tehran. So it is not just differences with US.
Secondly, there's no request to change regime in Tehran or to remove "Islamic".
The issue is clear and straight - concerns of international community regarding Iranian nuclear program and its possible weaponization.
And it was just one inconsistency of the poll results that I've pointed to. Another was mismatch between desire for government to concentrate more on domestic issues rather than "lead" the Arab nation (despite quite open opposition by Arab nations to efforts to dominate by non-Arab nation). And on the other side of the mismatch is support for Hamas and Hezbollah like they contribute to Iranian GDP.
I wish them the best,and hope all these dictatorships fall,including the hypocritical,tyrannical govt in Iran.
They claim to support Bahrain's protests,yet mention nothing of Syria's,and only talk about how Syrian security forces have been killed.Really,no Syrians have died?
Shows the govt of Iran is not for democracy either at home or abroad.
I would like to express my utmost heartfelt gratitude to you for your article.
The MEK has already been delisted by the British government as well as EU countries. Recently the French Magistrate threw out all terrorist charges of MEK members in France. In light of the Washington DC Court order for a review of MEK proscription, the State Department must expedite its decision in order to remove this organization form its FTO list. By doing so, the justice about this organization will surely prevail and we shall join our allied countries in the Europe that we also in America do not sacrifice our democratic values and humanitarian principles for the sake of appeasing dictators like the one in Tehran.
Anyway, if you'd like to tell the state department that in exchange for being taken off FTO list, MEK can provide intelligence, just write them a letter instead of mixing up a whole bunch of unrelated issues in a piece of word salad.