To no one's surprise, the regime ruling Iran is watching the unrest in the Middle East and North Africa, searching for a way to exploit the outcomes to its advantage. At the same time, Tehran is, and should be, worried about the images of falling dictators impacting on Iran's population, especially against the backdrop of the summer 2009 uprising.
While Ahmadinejad loudly criticizes Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi for "killing his own people," he has been busy amassing his own suppressive forces to step up the killing of Iran's citizens.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei praised the developments in Egypt and Tunisia as an "Islamic Awakening." This is the same guy who, in June 2009, explicitly ordered the crackdown in which hundreds were killed.
So Tehran finds itself in a quandary: how to make "pro-freedom noises" while terrorizing its own citizens.
Iran's rulers have found their situation further complicated since the dissent against the rulers in the Arab world has spilled over to Iraq, where dozens of demonstrations have erupted in the past few weeks. Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki is believed to have kept his seat during the eight-month post-election battle due to Tehran's unequivocal support.
The large "Day of Rage" demonstrations on February 25th were followed by another nationwide demonstration on March 4th that extended from Baghdad to Basra and from Nineveh to Salaheddin.
"Liar, liar, Nuri al-Maliki," protesters were heard shouting in Baghdad. "We have elected you to protect us and not to kill us," one banner said; some carried banners reading, "where is the oil money going Maliki?"
The demonstrators defied security checkpoints and a vehicle ban, walking for hours to the heart of the capital in a show of force against the increasingly fragile government of Maliki. Iraqis are calling for an end to corruption, shortages of jobs, food, power and water and most importantly the lack of freedom. A week before, security forces killed several people and wounded many others in several cities throughout Iraq.
Let's hope Al-Maliki doesn't use his mentors' playbook to quell the unrest in the coming weeks, as the protesters have promised to come back. When there was a call for protests in Iran on February 14th, Tehran's rulers readied themselves to confront all dissent. A command headquarters was formed, and an additional 60,000 agents deployed to Tehran to assist the regular security forces in enforcing the ban on protests.
According to reports, the Vali Amr Corps was assigned to protect Khamenei and Ahmadinejad's offices. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) stationed 46,000 of its forces in 184 battalions of the Mohammad Corps in various parts of Tehran. The Seyyedolshohada Corps was responsible solely to maintain control of Azadi ("Freedom") Square and the surrounding areas. The State Security Force brought in 4,000 of its agents from various cities.
There were even 1,500 members of Lebanese Hezbollah added to the operational forces of the regime.
Nevertheless, tens of thousands confronted the regime's suppressive forces. Parliamentary members lined up in the Majlis, not to conduct legislative business, but to march around in circles, calling for the execution of dissidents. The demonstrations have continued ever since; more protests are expected in the coming weeks."
In a rant reminiscent of Gaddafi, Tehran rulers blamed the murder of the protesters on the main organized Iranian opposition, the Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK). The outlandish accusation only underscored the ruling regime's paranoia about the group, especially since three MEK members have been hanged in January and December for their participation in the uprising.
The recent demonstrations in Iran underscored several key points:
At the end of the day, dictators reach a fork in the road, where they must choose between submitting to the will of their people or bloody violence. Ben Ali and Mubarak chose to back down. At this writing, Gaddafi has chosen otherwise. Al-Maliki, too, must soon decide where he wants to stand.
And of course, Khamenei must make the choice in Iran. Either way, the impact on the whole region will be enormous.
Follow Alireza Jafarzadeh on Twitter: www.twitter.com/A_Jafarzadeh
I’ve read with interest Dr. Jafarzadeh’s articles and work, particularly, his book; The Iran Threat: President Ahmadinejad and the coming Nuclear Crisis; over the past few years and have found the author to be insightful and prescient in his comments and analysis.
In this groundbreaking column, Jafarzadeh once again has revealed some of the key intricacies of the problems the Iranian clerics have found themselves, as the roaring ocean of discontent has engulfed the Middle East and the Moslem world.
Their initial claims of the revolutions in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya other Middle Eastern and North African countries, having the flavor of the Iranian Revolution of 1979 (which in fact they hijacked from its true inheritors) and a fundamentalist nature, have run against a stone wall, as one nation after another emphasizes the secular and nationalistic intent of its uprising.
On the other hand, their repressive and barbaric actions at home have turned away even some of their long –time friends and beneficiaries of their petro-dollars and weapons, as well as their moral support over the years.
The author has opened up the extremely important predicament the clerics have to deal with practically on a daily basis, as their own survival and existence seems to be threatened by the Iranian opposition, and the Iranian people, who recently has to endure price hikes of more than 400 percent for essentials, such as petrol, bread, meat and other commodities.
CNGS
Get a taste of carnaval in Germany. It is interesting to see.
A very realistic assessment from someone who is living through this so-called hell, mullahs' regime. You need to know Farsi to understand this.
False.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People's_Mujahedin_of_Iran
I think just about every country in the world is looking at ways to exploit countries that have become weaker due to war or unrest. It's been happening for thousands of years. True story look it up.
Thank You Sir for the wonderful and factual writing.
Best Regards
Carlos Azad
A gripping, blow- by- blow, and a detailed and smart account of the double standard the thuggish regime in Tehran is trying to pursue in the face of unrest, or the modern renaissance in the Middle East.
Dr. Jafarzadeh has done a wonderful and articulate job to expose the double entendre sought by the mullahs’ black domination of Iran for more than three brutal decades.
LEF
No; the wave of democracy in the region has nothing to do with their savage system; every country, be it Egypt, or Tunisia, Yemen or Libya, the intrepid democracy seekers have rejected fundamentalism and its infamous character.
Our Thanks to the author for his lucid and wonderfully dissected piece to indict the savages for their wanting their cake and eat it too!!!
Mr,Alireza Jafarzadeh is a true Iranian patriot, He has dedicated his life to opposing the Islamic fundamentalism that has engulfed and destroyed his homeland, Iran, and he demonstrates admirably that true liberal Moslems (not the fake "liberals /moderates" of CAIR, NIAC, MASA, etc.) are an asset to this country.
The 30-year policy of appeasement of Iran has been a total failure; the Islamic Republic of Iran remains as belligerent towards the U.S. and Western nations as it was at the time of the takeover of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran in 1979. It's time for the Obama government to reverse itself and support the NCRI and PMOI opposition so as to help end the corrupt theocratic Tehran regime wreaking havoc in the Middle East and to finally bring a secular, democratic government to Iran and peace to the region.
The mullahs' 30-year reign of terror has demonstrated that they do not have scruples in murdering as many number of people it takes to stay in power. Case and point, in a matter of a few months in 1988, they massacred 30,000 political prisoners, none of whom was sentenced to death. Amnesty International described the killings as one the most manifest cases of crime against humanity. (See: http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/libertycentral/2010/jun/07/iran-1988-prisoners-murder-international-court)
So, the Iranian people are up against a brutal regime, which means that the international community must go beyond verbal expressions of outrage at the regime's atrocities. The West must take a more proactive posture, denying Tehran the resources with which it suppresses its own citizens, and adopting an even-handed, non-selective approach to all opposition groups.
It does not take a rocket scientist to know that the Iranian problem is no longer an issue for Iranians only. Tehran poses an extremely serious threat to regional and global peace and security. So, ensuring that Iran is again free and democratic benefits everyone concerned.
so you get mixed up with psychopathic murderer called Saddam since he want to take down the Clergy and your nation in process in a hope of becoming the Group of Groups in whatever parts of your nation which Saddam don't want as his own, unfortunately both of you get shafted by US which is dying to get hold of some oil fields in Saddam turf, now you're trying to mix up with US since they want to take down a clergy and get hold of more oil fields in your nation and maybe giving whatever left to you so you can finally be in charge ofter being shafted for 40 years now, now you're in cross road and have to choose if you want to trust US while you saw what happens to US allies when their shelf life have expired such as Chalabi or Contras, or think of your nation if you truly love her and call it a quit while your nation still have not become another present Palestine or Iraq, meanwhile you know from your own resume what is waiting for you; yes another shaft waiting for previous one to finish his job before jumping to take his place!
Imagine yourself as a group, you're born in late 60's during global revolutionary fever which is rumored to be a USSR plot for shacking down imperialist US in middle of Vietnam and cold war, you're taking ideology of a dead mentor which is rumored to be MI6 agent while residing in London and send to take down Czar of Russia by way of revolution and you mix this mentor ideology with your home town religion which is rumored to be run by servants of MI6, your first action is to take down the king of kings but he's to powerful and kills most of your leadership so you mix up with other groups and finally the king is overthrown, unfortunately other group give you a shaft and take all the powers and glory of revolution so you try to take down the Clergy of Clergies but unfortunately he's to powerful too and kill most of your group again, to be continued ...
Most of these countries have neglected infrastructures, thanks to decades of rule by people who were more concerned about enriching themselves, and keeping their armies well equipped, because they knew that their population would not fight to keep their government intact (see Iraq) and Iranian companies have a lot of expertise in building infrastructure, and were facing a drop in their domestic business as the Iranian infrastructure caught up with the easing baby-boom.
And when you are importing Iranian concrete, using Iranian materials to pave your roads, having Iranian companies build your generating dams, or wind farms, or fossil fuel generating stations, it will be hard to keep Iranian cars, appliances, and housewares from also hitting the shelves of your stores, and that sort of thing leads to a lot of soft power for Iran.
As for the 'pro-democracy movement' as it is termed by Americans, while the Iranian government is understandably worried about an attempt to replay Operation Ajax, they are not that worried about a popular, democratic, uprising, because the vast majority of Iranians see the election as having been free, fair, and won hands down by Ahmadinejad, see the effort to stop the fringe element from disrupting the country as having found a reasonable balance between security and freedom, see the economy as not deteriorating, see their personal finances as not deteriorating, see the government as having done at least a fair job of things, and see the future under it as bright.
(PS, as long as the 'protesters' keep picking chants/slogans that play well in America, and poorly in Iran, the approval numbers for the Greens will remain upside down. As long as the government keeps making decisions that lead to a better future, like investing more in education than in weapons, and increasing Iran's trade, especially the non-oil trade, as they have been doing, it will keep the strong approval numbers)
http://www.ipinst.org/images/pdfs/cr_iran_2010_survey_frequency_questionnaire.pdf
That Iran rulers have been unable to extinguish the flames of resistance despite the massive security operation which Jafarzadeh has pointed to reflects the resolve of the Iranian people on the one hand and the regime's vulnerability on the other.
The international community, in particular the United States, can definitely expedite matters by taking a bolder approach in supporting the millions in Iran whose cry is freedom.