The March 7 parliamentary elections have heralded a new era for Iraq, pushing aside the incumbent Prime Minister, Nouri al-Maliki and officials with ties to Iran while opening way for a new slate of politicians hoping to mend serious sectarian divides. But, as a U.S. military official in Iraq told the Washington Post, Maliki and his allies "have no intention of giving up their regime," something that could threaten the hard earned post-election gains for progress and stability and harm US troops withdrawal timetable.
"These are people who were exiled and who've risen to power almost overnight because we brought them back to power," the official was quoted as saying. "Now they're going to lose that relative lock on power through these elections," which explains the Maliki bloc's frantic reaction to its defeat.
With the Iraqiya coalition declared as the winner of the March 7 vote, arduous talks are now under way to form a new government. The triumph of the cross-sectarian and nationalist Iraqiya list, headed by former PM Ayad Allawi, represents a major threat to the ambitious agenda of the regime in neighboring Iran.
Mr. Allawi and his allies managed to win the most votes, overcoming monumental political and security obstacles and thwarting Iran's bag of dirty tricks, while displaying surprising resilience and strength. Tehran will no doubt heighten its already extensive interference in a bid to rob Iraqis of their electoral choices and engineer a surrogate government in Baghdad.
Still, regardless of which political blocks will ultimately succeed in forming the next government, the Iranian regime and its Iraqi allies have been dealt a strategic blow as Iraq takes small and fragile steps toward a pluralistic democracy. Iran's state-run media are lamenting the "lost opportunity," launching a disinformation campaign to tarnish the historic electoral performance of the nationalist and non-sectarian political forces.
The defeat of the pro-Tehran Shiite groups in no way signals rising sectarian politics and a Sunni resurgence, as some suggest. Far from it, this was a definitive victory for nationalism and secularism -- for Shiites and Sunnis alike.
The Iraqiya block is made up of Shiites and Sunnis, and offered an anti-sectarian platform welcomed by Iraqis of all stripes. Sensing which way the wind was blowing, al-Maliki's State of Law bloc tried unsuccessfully to portray itself as a nationalist alternative, ready to change from its sectarian, Tehran-friendly politics of the past four years.
Behind the scene, however, al-Maliki did his utmost to do Tehran's bidding and his emissaries were constantly pacing back and forth between the two capitals. At Tehran's bidding, for example, he laid siege to Camp Ashraf, residence of several thousand Iranian dissidents, members of Iran's main opposition People's Mojahedin of Iran (PMOI/MEK). In July this culminated in a deadly assault on the unarmed camp, causing eleven deaths and injuring 500.
Al-Maliki's clout as incumbent prime minister also gave him unrivaled opportunity to woo influential groups through political and economic incentives.
In the end, however, his ties with Tehran were too extensive to be cloaked with his newly-found ostensible affection for a secular, nationalist agenda. He underestimated how deeply Tehran and its surrogates, after years of bloodshed and meddling, are loathed by Iraq's people.
The disillusionment with the dominant Shiite blocks that effectively acted as Tehran's clients was glaring, nowhere more than the Shiite neighborhoods. The estimated 60 percent increase in Sunni voters and nearly 18% decline in overall voter participation, denote a whopping decrease in the Shiite turnout.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and its extraterritorial arm, Qods Force had marshaled all their financial, political, and security forces to hijack the March 7 elections. They pumped tens of millions of dollars monthly into the country, assassinated secular Iraqis, and used the Justice and Accountability Commission, to disqualify hundreds of unyielding politicians from running.
The Washington Post's David Ignatius reported that according to a de-classified intelligence document: "Iran supports de-Baathification efforts engineered by Ahmed Chalabi for the purpose of eliminating potential obstacles to Iranian influence. Chalabi is also interested in Iran's assistance in securing the office of prime minister."
In the end, Iraq's nationalism defeated Tehran's meddling. Nevertheless, one must remain increasingly vigilant. Although dealt a heavy blow, the ayatollahs' regime is still not willing to lose the "Iraq opportunity." Iraqi surrogates and friends have been invited to Tehran to coordinate plans set in motion for the post-election phase.
A state-run news site in Iran, Khabar Online, recently wrote: "Iran plays an important role in determining the next prime minister of Iraq, and anyone occupying this post must have a positive view of Tehran."
For years, Tehran has declared its intention to fill the vacuum when US forces leave Iraq. The March 7 elections were critical to this strategy. Building on the homegrown foundations which pulled the rug out from under the ayatollahs, Iraq's people must deny Iran's rulers the chance to once again plunge Iraq into sectarian strife. The stakes are high and America's attempts to leave Iraq in peace and stability next year depends on it.
Alireza Jafarzadeh is the author of "The Iran Threat: President Ahmadinejad and the Coming Nuclear Crisis" (Palgrave MacMillan).
Follow Alireza Jafarzadeh on Twitter: www.twitter.com/A_Jafarzadeh
In this brilliantly researched article Dr. Jafarzadeh, having been absent from the scene for some while, has once again shown his dynamism and deep knowledge of the inner-workings of the region and the machinations of the mullahs of Iran, by providing his readers with an excellent analysis one of the most important events in the history of the Middle East in the course of the past two decades or so.
The aftermath and the effect of mullahs strategic defeat in Iraq, despite all their machinations and terrorism and influence buying, will prove to be the last nail in the mullahs coffin; for , even if Dr. Allawi does not form a government, with 91 seats, he will prevent the new government to just go on a rampage and trample upon the rights of the Iraqi people, and its barbaric attack against Camp Ashraf in Iraq.
This strategic defeat, as well as the recent nuclear policy change by President Obama, and the signing of the New START by the US and Russia, and the unrelenting courage on the part of the Iranian people will bring down the foundation of eveil in Iran.
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Indeed there is a new era upon Iraq.
All Iraqi people who got involved and brought about the change should be congratulated regardless of their faith. Yet, they should be reminded that their enemy in Tehran and its agents and Quds Force do not give up easily! So beware, protect your achievement and embrace your leaders and Mr. Alavi.
It seems Iraqi have seen and heard Iranians clear outcry and total rejection of Mullahs’ tyrannical regime. Iranians are seeking a democratic, secular society, to live in harmony, far away from Mullahs madness.
Though there has been much sacrifice, in recent years, Iraqis gladly have identified Mullahs fundamentalist extremist regime in Iran and its agents in Iraq as their main problem, total ejection of Mullahs and their proxies should bring about a normal united democratic Iraq.
It has taken Iranians 30 years!
To Iranians, especially those who have since the fraudulent presidential elections in June have been chanting "death to Khamenei," "down with the principle of the velayat-e faqih," who feel insulted by equating the murderous rules of Iran with the Iranian nation or Persia as you call it.
For too long Tehran and its lobby in the US tried to muzzle anyone who spoke out against the regime's abysmal human rights record, mad dash to nuclear weapons and nefarious meddling in Iraq and the Middle East, in particular in the peace process. The uprising in Iran was a rude awakening for those who thought this campaign of demonization would last for ever.
One can only scoff at the silly suggestion that Neo-Cons bankroll the author. Have you seen what a card-carrying neo-con has written on this subject? Here's the link: http://97.74.65.51/readArticle.aspx?ARTID=6036
Why don't you engage in civilized debate instead of parroting the kind of stuff that has the stench of the turbaned tyrants of Iran all over it?
Whatever democracy and self determination is now in Iraq is the result of one man's perserverance, vision and belief in America's ability to "do good" in the world.
That man is George Walker Bush.
I wish the people and government of Iraq could have shown more appreciation to this man who believed in this success, as tenuous as it may be now, when NO ONE else did! He was destroyed in his own country because of his strong belief in freedom and the right of Iraq's democratic self determination.
Can anyone say "sell out"?!?
Curious which neoCON think tank pays this guy off for his anti-Persian rubbish.
I assure you I do not feel stampeded into lavishing slovenly praise upon this author and his article. I am not part of a cult. My children do not have to stay at strangers' houses. I am simply dazzled by how beautifully this lovely article has been masterfully written.
The interference of the notorious Quds force in Iraqi affairs and the violence that has spread as a result is not disputable.
The result of the Iraqi election shows that the people of the country are fed up and would like to establish a secular democratic government. The U.S. should help them with cutting off the meddling hands of the Iranian mullahs and assisting these people in establishing freedom and democracy in their homeland.
Also see Iran's Influence Palpable In Post-Election Iraq by Quil Lawrence
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=125591518
My bet is still on Maliki, Hakim and Kurds coalition.
It would indeed be tragic, were the US allow, after investing so much human, political and material capital in Iraq, Tehran to hijack the elections in that country by imposing a proxy government on the people of Iraq.
While the author correct is correct in pointing out strategic implications of the upset victory of the secular Al-Iraqiya block, the mullahs' covetous designs on Iraq and their plans to derail the political process through their Iraqi proxies cannot be underestimated.
The worst thing that could happen is a repeat of what happened in Iran following the 1979 revolution, when Khomeini and his retinue stole the leadership of a popular from the people of Iran, who sought a democratic government and not the murderous theocracy that is in place now.
But after 60 years of ruling of a minority 15% Sunni goverment over Kurds and Shias, it is natural for the majority of the people in Iraq to be sectarian.
Like it or not, Shias going to rule in Iraq for decades before the country goes back to a secular state.
My prediction is the Maliki, Kurds and Hakim will form a goverment and Allawi's coalition will disintegrate fast. If America tries to shift this natural course of action at minimum we have to stay in Iraq for a decade or so.
It is much cheaper for US to give greencards to PMOI/MEK's members, than force Allawi in power despite the will of majority of Iraqis.
If you are a member of PMOI/MEK, just want you to know, intellectuals have limited power to change political reality and soon or later will end up as isolated military terrorist organizations if they do not give up and accept the reality.
With regards to PMOI/MEK, I suggest they move out from Iraq while American forces are over there and you and other PMOI/MEK leaders are directly responsible to keep them over there by inducing false hope that somehow miraculously Allawi becomes the next prime minister of Iraq.
If you and PMOI/MEK leaders are wrong once more, which I think you are, these poor individuals will suffer tremendously.
Next you know US wants to be Iraq's neighbor to keep Iran out.
Foolish, we have to get out. Iraq is 70% shia, there is no way we can keep a Iran out from Iraq's politics.
If you are Iranian, you are so out of touch with reality that is scary!
It is an excellent article by Mr Jafarzadeh. Tehran is going crazy after Maliki's defeat despite the fraud organised by him and the Iranian government. Maliki and his good friend Chalabi who benefitted from George W. Bush's warm backing and stupidity, together paved the way for the mullahs in Iraq . Maliki ordered the violent attack against defenceless Iranian opposition exiles in Camp Ashraf last July, killing 11 and wounding hundreds more while the US forces just watched and took pictures! Maliki, who initially claimed the poll was free and fair, but has now decided that there has been, after all, widespread cheating. As the British MP Brian Binley has said “Maliki should be believed when he says there has been widespread cheating – his side were involved in most of it! !” The USA should make sure that Iraq will not be a puppet of Tehran.
Thomas Davy-London