Mediating the Nuclear Impasse

Iran's insistence on enriching uranium in defiance of three UN Security Council resolutions, combined with a bevy of antagonistic threats aimed at Israel's existence has created an explosive recipe that may well precipitate a horrifying regional conflagration. For Iran's own best interests, its contentious leaders would be well advised to tone down their anti-Israeli threats, which have not been taken lightly thus far, and find a diplomatic solution to Iran's suspected nuclear weapons program. The recent Israeli air force exercises and American naval maneuvers in the Persian Gulf, which were countered by Iran's test-firing of a variety of missiles, have only heightened an already tense atmosphere.

It is now critical to look at who might be in a position to defuse the tension and restore some stability to a volatile region already battered by a devastating war in Iraq. At this point, Turkey has made itself well positioned geopolitically to play such a significant role. The fact that the Bush administration has shifted policy after nearly three decades and agreed to participate in the international talks with Iran's nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili in Geneva may well open the door for future direct talks to be facilitated by the Turks.

Israeli concerns over Iran's nuclear program are real and escalating rapidly, regardless of the fact that the US and the International Energy and Atomic Agency (IEAE) show different estimates of how close Iran is to obtaining the needed materials and technology. Israelis know well that while the United States and Europe are weary of Iran's nuclear ambitions, they do not share Israel's sense of urgency about Iran's nuclear potential. The Jews' history in Europe does not offer Israel the luxury of taking matters of national survival lightly. Thus Israel tends to limit the scope of risks it can take with any one of its neighbors. Israel's Defense Minister Ehud Barak noted recently that "Israel is the strongest country in the region and has proved in the past it is not afraid to take action when its vital security interests are at stake." Indeed, when survival is at stake, an Israeli official told me during my recent visit to the region, the Israelis will not worry about public relations.

That being said, Israel wants to avoid escalation of the conflict with Iran fearing that such an extremely sensitive issue could result in a terrible miscalculation. Syrian President Bashar Assad also spoke on the issue last week stating that "The problem is that when one starts such action in the Middle East, one cannot manage the reactions that can spread out over years or even decades." For this reason, Israel will continue to seek and push for a diplomatic solution and welcomes the American participation in the upcoming talks with Iran. However, should there not be a breakthrough in these and future talks, Israel will not wait until Iran reaches the point of no return -- the point in which Iran musters the technology to produce a nuclear weapon.

With the best of intentions Britain, France and Germany, representing the EU in the negotiations with Iran have thus far failed to persuade Iran to cease its enrichment of uranium. Swimming with oil money, Iran continues to defy three sets of UN sanctions almost with impunity while making considerable progress in its nuclear program. From the Iranian vantage point, the American preoccupation in Iraq and increasingly in Afghanistan substantially reduces the risks of an American attack on Iran. It is doubtful that under the present circumstances the next round of talks even with US participation will produce different results. Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei plainly stated on July 16th that "In relations to the negotiations... we have clearly defined red lines" -- a reference to Iran's insistence that it has the right to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes.

Whether the next round of talks with Iran will help alleviate the tension between the US and Iran remains to be seen. What is needed at this critical time is a dramatic shift in the dynamic of the conflict, and this is where Turkey might be better suited to mediate Iran's nuclear issue. In the five days of meetings I had in Ankara just recently, whenever the subject of Iran's nuclear program was mentioned Turkish officials and academics expressed grave concerns about the growing danger of yet another avoidable and potentially devastating war in the Middle East. For the Turks, finding a diplomatic solution is not one of many options but the only sane option to prevent a horrific outcome.

Apart from Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan's recent claims that "Maybe the mediator role regarding Iran's nuclear issue will soon be given to Turkey" due to its recent diplomatic achievements between Israel and Syria, there are many reasons why Turkey may succeed in mediating a peaceful solution to the nuclear impasse. Other than being directly affected by regional events, Turkey generally enjoys good relations with all states in the region, it has not been tainted with the war in Iraq; it is a predominantly Muslim State, Middle Eastern as well as European. Turkey shares the longest-standing border with Iran, and has maintained good neighborly relations with Tehran for centuries with expanding trade relations. Moreover, Turkey and Iran share a similar sentiment and have collaborated recently on the Kurdish issue, and both have a shared interest in this regard for the emergence of a stable Iraq.

Whereas Turkey, at this juncture, may not be able to mediate between Israel and Iran, Ankara certainly stands a much better chance to mediate between Washington and Tehran. Moreover, the Iranian government is mostly concerned with the Bush Administration's attitude toward regime change in Tehran. Iran is terrified of the prospect of an American attack on its nuclear facilities, but its leadership wants assurances from the US that Washington will no longer pursue regime change and will treat it with dignity and respect in dealing with the nuclear issue. Because of Turkey's standing in the region and as a credible bridge to the West, Turkey might succeed where others have failed. Turkey is a close ally and a reliable friend of the United States; it is an important member of NATO, it has worked fervently to maintain the democratic nature of the state, and has received due praise for its recent diplomatic mediating efforts.

Turkey can better understand the nature of Iran's threats, specifically in connection with the United States who has made no secret of its efforts to support Ahmadinejad's opponents. Arzu Celalifer, a Turkish expert on Iran from the ISRO Center for Middle Eastern Studies in Ankara suggested that "Turkey may also be in a better position than the EU representatives to bypass Ahmadinejad and reach out directly to Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei." In addition, she said, "Turkey may offer a sort of plan B whereby Iran can be persuaded to enrich uranium on Turkish soil under strict IAEA monitoring." Turkey, in short, can change the dynamics by offering a new venue for Americans and Iranians to meet and by generating a new momentum for serious dialogue. Finally, Turkey can provide Iran with a dignified disengagement plan, because if Iran is to make any concessions it will more likely make them to a fellow Muslim-majority state with which it has long and friendly relations.

The decision of the Bush administration to participate in the upcoming round of negotiations, however belated, is a wise one. It offers an opportunity to end the nuclear conflict with Iran. Turkey and the US should build on this development and prevent once and for all the prospect of another potentially devastating war.

Comments

[Quantumystic]

What people aren't bothering to remember about this is that Russia has a huge financial interest in Iran developing a nuclear energy program. Because Iran is paying them for it. Just like Iran is paying the Russians for newer weapons systems. And Russia, China, and Iran have a pretty sweet setup going right now between the 3 of them. What possible reason is Russia going to let Israel mess with one of their top Cash-Cows? Especially with China as their military backup.

Answer... they're NOT. They've got the recon satellites and Caspian Sea naval forces to detect and respond to Israeli jets transiting Iraqi airspace, by coming down from the north into Iran and joining with Iranian air defense forces to shoot down the Israelis... who don't have a snowball's chance in hell against over 100 Iranian and Russian fighters over Iranian airspace.

And there's not one thing the Israelis or the Bush admin can do to stop them.

[meanguy]

if russia attacks israel, cancel christmas...no american president will sit still for that

[MagisterLudi]

Both Israel and Iran talk nonsense for their own political reasons.
But, besides inherent Ayatollahs' hatred for infidels ( Ayatollah refuses to meet with non-Muslims considering them unclean), Iran and Israel have little to argue about:. they share no borders and have no competing claims.
Before the current oppressive regime came to power in Iran, both countries had a great relationship.
And will again, as soon as Iranian people will throw off the yoke of the fanatics.
It's only a question of time.

[jmad]

I am holding my breath that the nut jobs don't do anything stupid before Obama is sworn into office.
If it appears that Magoo is losing do we get an October surprise?

[Moncar]

Once again, a posting concerning Israel brings out droves of anti-Israeli comments by ultra-liberals who reek of defeat politically here and militarily in Israel. Where are the tough-minded liberals - that's not an oxymoron - who do not approve of everything Israel does but recognize it's the only reliable friend we have in the region and, like many friends, we have to look past its shortcomings to the advantages of continued harmony.
No matter the resolution of the Iranian probem - and it won't be the nuking of the Jewish state, Israel, the Palestinians and all the problems tied to them, will be with us for generations to come. Get used to it.

[Fein]

Action speaks louder than words. The most belligerant country in the ME, i.e. the country that has started the most wars, is Israel. And those wars were all justified by a racially motivated doctrine.

Since the Israeli/Neocon 'war of civilizations' initiative is floundering, Israel should reconsider it's own
agressive policies. As Americans begin to 'wise up', the money flow from the U.S. may cease.

[LeoMarvin]

Divining the facts by working backward from hatred can make the thorniest questions seem simple. It can even make self-defense look like starting war "justified by a racially motivated doctrine." In these matters certainty is not your friend.

[jackstpaul]

What are you talking about? Are you saying you disagree with him re: his statement about Israel's motives?

[EspressoAtNoon]

For Israel's own best interests, its contentious leaders would be well advised to tone down their anti-Iranian threats, which have not been taken lightly thus far, and find a diplomatic solution to Israel's suspected nuclear weapons program.

[medi22]

thanks 111.

[111]

Iran signed the NPT and permitted numerous IAEA inspections. The treaty permits the development and use of nuclear energy.

Israel has refused to sign the NPT
Israel has refused to permit any IAEA inspections at all.
Israel has hundreds of nuclear war heads
Israel uses cluster bombs
Israel has used chemical weapons against Palestinians
Israel has attacked Syria two times without provocation
Israel has flown over Iran air space as a threat, again without provocation

This is all a show. There are people in the governments of Israel and the US who know the truth about what is going on but we, the ordinary citizens of these countries, are being lied to and manipulated. . When Israel creates an excuse for attacking on Iran it will be a lie and many people will suffer. Unfortunately, it will not be the first time governments do these types of things.

[dobberdoss]

Thankyou for saying what needed to be said, no one in the media along with Mr Ben-Meir seems to want to acknowledge these facts!

[LeoMarvin]

ipse dixit

[jmsent]

What complicates this is the sense of urgency Israel feels because of the upcoming elections. Should Obama get in, which seems likely, the climate of support for an attack on Iran will shift dramatically. Israel clearly knows this and because of this may end up acting sooner than later. I believe this would be a horrible mistake.

[guajiro]

Call me a capitalist if you will, but I prefer to let Iran have their nukes and the sovereignty that will come to it and the Palestinians, Iraqis, Afghanistans and Syrians as a result of it. We'll stop the billions upon billions in welfare and armament we provide to the Israelis and get a market composed of the above countries that any Multi-National corporation would die for. Imagine the billions in trade this country would gain as the populace of these countries grows from impoverished standing to middle class and even, who knows, upper class standing. We can all profit instead of all suffering. By the way, there is no sure-fire way to know where all the heavy water producing cannisters or even areas are and to risk any future negotiation for a political stunt now would be disastrous.

[S1m0n]

It's Israel's long-term interest to make peace with it's neighbours, but neither one of is going to see our advice taken any day soon.