A Cabal in the College of Mullahs?

Supported by the Revolutionary Guards and its Basij Miliitia (the equivalent of its Gestapo/SS), the Supreme Leader's iron-fisted tactics are beginning to resemble what the revolution was supposed to have overthrown -- the worst vestiges of the dreaded Shah's secret police state built around the notorious SAVAK. In the face of the continued repression, the latest courageous Tehran street demonstrations and the civil disobedience taking root from the rooftops of homes throughout Iran is important confirmation that the sinister baton-swinging Basij militia cannot silence Iranians into submission.

Beyond the streets of Iran's troubled cities, an increasingly important power struggle may be taking place in the wake of the disputed presidential election. It pits the forces critical of the post-election violence (including elements of the all important Shiite clerical establishment) against Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the shadow government of Iran led by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Force.

In post-election Iran, the crazy-quilt check and balance system that has undergirded the fictitious use of the word "republic" in the "Islamic Republic" has proven to be a mirage. In reality, Iran has devolved into two parallel states: where the real power lies with the Supreme Leader, the Revolutionary Guards, and those supporting Ahmadinejad against the largely ineffectual constitutional system of checks and balances which is dispersed among an alphabet soup of organizations including the Guardian Council, the Expediency Council, the Assembly of Experts, and the Majles (Parliament).

Among a very influential number of leading grand and lesser ayatollahs, Ali Khamenei committed the mortal sin of forfeiting his divine authority by descending into the abyss of Iranian politics and consequently incurred the wrath of millions of Iranians victimized by his terror squads rather than remaining above the fray.

Indeed, Ali Khamenei's act of reckless partisanship has called into question the very foundation of a state based on absolute religious rule on one hand and vestiges of public accountability for the acts undertaken in the name of Islam, on the other. In other words, Ali Khamenei may have set in motion events that may lead to his own demise and the weakening of the very tenets of the Islamic state he voraciously defends at all costs.

Many of Iran's most influential grand and other ayatollahs who occupy the highest echelons of Iran's clerical establishment (Grand Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri and Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi) have broken with the Supreme Leader and condemned the electoral fraud and ensuing violence, while more conservative allies of Khamenei such as Ayatollah Morteza Moghtadai (who heads the prestigious Qum Seminary) have validated the election results, and Ahmadenijad's so-called spiritual ayatollah -- Muhammad Taghi Mesbah Yazdi, wants to entirely rid Iran of elections once and for all asserting they are nothing but misbegotten "window dressing."

The lineup of ayatollahs on either side of the divide is of the utmost importance to the future of Iran as well as to Ali Khamenei's continued reign as Supreme Leader.

Long live the Supreme Leader?

Although he is the Supreme Leader, as it is stated in the Hebrew National hot dog commercial, Ali Khamenei theoretically answers to a higher authority and that authority is the 86 member Assembly of Experts (Khobregan) -- which elects and supervises the Supreme Leader's allegiance to Sha'aria, the constitution, and the ideals of the revolution.

The Assembly of Experts not only has the power to elect and govern the Supreme Leader's activities, but also to remove him from his position.

The Assembly has never dismissed a sitting Supreme Leader, but within the Assembly
exists a so called "111 Commission" which monitors the conduct of the current Supreme Leader. Members of the Assembly of Experts can file reports with the "111 Commission" and the Commission can then order an emergency meeting of the Assembly.

It just so happens that the current chairman of the Assembly of Experts is former
Iranian president Ayatollah Hashem Rafsanjani, a supporter of presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi and a virulent critic of Ali Khamenei. Based on tabulations by Iranian experts, Rafsanjani has potential claim to 65 of the 86 so-called "experts" a majority of the members of the 86 person Assembly.

Recent news accounts suggest that Rafsanjani has called for an emergency meeting of the Assembly of Experts in the holy city of Qom possibly to investigate whether the Supreme Leader may have violated Iran's constitution by condoning the election fraud.

This is not to suggest that a coup within the Assembly of Experts against the Supreme
Leader is imminent. But with Rafsanjani at its helm, and growing resentment directed
against Ali Khamenei by his own peers, how ironic would it be that the first political casualty of Iran's election dispute could turn out to be the Supreme Leader and not Mahmoud Ahmadinejad? Stay tuned.

Comments

[DFTWD]

As an Iranian who has lived in US for over 25 years but was back home and participating in Iranian revolution of 1978-1979, I am worried about this Friday's prayers and what position Rafsanjani will take. He is known to be a good politician and I believe this will be his ultimate test. An Iranian friend of mine; also from Diaspora, commented to me couple days ago that if Rafsanjani positions himself during this prayer with those who have attacked peaceful marches, then he will be sent to trash can of history. I can't wait to see what Rafsanjani says during this Fridays prayers.

[leutenizer]

You have an identical bio as mine. Rafsanjani will follow the wind just as he follows the money. Don't worry.

[monelis]

Mullah’s theocracy is very similar to any other Middle Eastern countries including Israel. Israel most democratic regime in the area has only so many selected personnel that government trusts and they keep elect and re-elect again and again. For example Shimon Peres has been Prime Minister, President and Prime Minister over and over so as the Benny boy. If you are not Jew there is no chance in the hell you can run for anything. What a democracy!!

Iran dictatorship is the same; they only let the known trusted figures to run for any governmental positions. However this election got out of control, at the end mullahs got panicky and the rumors of velvet revolution started to float around. Supreme leader, his son and the Revolutionary Guards decided that they could not trust Mousavi and they must stick with Ahemdinejid.

Mullah’s miscalculated the situation so bad that now gene is out of the bottle. This is a dream script that I don’t think Israel, US and other Arab states could have thought of it in a million years. Right now mullahs are in such predicament that I don’t think know which way is up or down.

Iranian can be successful if only the super powers stay out of it and let the people sort out their differences, even if it takes a few years.

[leutenizer]

Well said.
but there is too much oil in the Gulf and the Caspian (the real goal) for the superpowers to stay out.
The theocracy is a theocracy. there is no need to call it a dictatorship. That's what theocracies are. But this one is resilient. There will be compromise of sorts. Those who predict a military state are wrong. The theocracy will protect itself even at the cost of relieving Khamanei of his duties. Those who think this is a one man rule system are in for a big surprise.

[Wozzeck]

"Revolutionary Guards and its Basij Miliitia [sic] (the equivalent of its Gestapo/SS)"

As for the mandatory reference to Nazis, the more accurate comparison for the Basij is with the Sturmabteilung (SA), not the Schutzstaffel (SS) or Gestapo.

[Ozarks]

As I recall during "The night of the long knives" , the SA and all its leaders , characterized as the "brown shirts" were systematically murdered by Hitler's SS. So I think the Basij ,as equivalent to the SS, is the more appropriate tern.

[Wozzeck]

A comparison to Irgun might make as much sense, but a Hitler or NAZI reference is almost obligatory in any article about Iran here.

[leutenizer]

The crackdown was brutal and the regime is authoritarian.

But I hate to break it to you. Nothing is like what Western Culture has created and nothing will ever be like it. SS and Nazi's can only be from western cultures. Even Saddam had to turn to Germany and France for his chemical weapons in 1980''s, Then again, let's not forget Bosnia in the 1990's. Europe keeps going with the same culture. Why? they never took responsibility nor paid the price of the Nazism which is not particular to Germany, but the entire Europe.

[wm1066]

As a Dane and a Sami I take issue with what you are saying, The Danes and most of Scandinavia were fighting the Nazi's and their ideaology, saying all Europe was Nazi is like saying all muslims are terrorists! Millions of British Greek French Spanish and Scandinavians died fighting the Nazi's.

[sheine]

They are teaching lots of Muslims, especially in Iran, that "Islamic government" is just another form of fascism. This may help us to win the war on terror.

[ScribblerG]

Where do I begin? First, the assertion that the activities of the Revolutionary Guard and Basij only now are starting to resemble the worst days of the Savak is ludicrous. This regime has used all the tools of dictatorial repression from the very beginning. I suggest reading some books about what life has been like for Iranian dissidents since the beginning. Second, keep in mind that neither Mousavi nor Rafsanjani are democrats. They have been opposed to Ahmadinejad since his original election, an election he won mainly on criticism of the corruption and craven appetite for power the mullahs and existing elite regularly display. Even changing "Supreme Leaders" (it's axiomatic that if you have someone in power with that title, you aren't free) won't mean that much to real freedom for the Iranian people. The bottom line is that a new Iranian President or Supreme Leader won't mean the eruption of "freedom" in Iran, rather, it will just put a different face on a brutal, repressive and dangerous government.

[AbstractImp]

Iran is still on 8086 Assembly ?

[Ergon]

All indications are of Khamenei and Ahmadinejad's ascendancy, with Rafsanjani pulling in his horns ..

[Ergon]

An ambassador ought to know the official title is Leader of the Revolution; 'Supreme leader' is just a honorific.

[Stirner]

As Hegel has it, "There can be no political revolution before there is a religious reformation". So, as long as the useless gang of Mullahs are credited with having a direct pipeline to God (in this case Allah) there can never be any individual freedom or democracy in a nation in which hands them the monopoly on religion. Unhappily most insecure people, and most are, seek security in some ungrounded faith. The omnipresent con artists, a.k.a. "spiritual leaders" can easily take over since sheep are always looking for a Shepard. Ah well...

[TheFacilitator]

Now, Ambassador, you confirm that United States did encourage, support and protect the police of The Shah, and ipso facto, reverse a democratic elected government, 50 years ago. Why are we wasting billions for promoting democracy abroad....when we encourage, and support certain dictatorships and/or authoritarian regimes? We can not fool the real world anymore.

[louisamast]

Now it is convenient for him to do that. Tomorrow he will regret and deny it!
What is important is that no government is democratic in his view if that government does not approve all the crimes committed by Is_real. In the meantime dictatorial regimes like Egypt and Saudi Arabia can fall through cracks unnoticed since they say nothing against Is_real. If Ahmadinejad comes and bows to Is_real tomorrow, he would be described as a nice and freedom lover guy in no time!

[oxi]

"Revolutionary Guards and its Basij Miliitia (the equivalent of its Gestapo/SS), the Supreme Leader's iron-fisted tactics are beginning to resemble what the revolution was supposed to have overthrown"

And what is the Patriot Act, NSA and Homeland Security trying to do here?

[drkazmd65]

From the article:
"In other words, Ali Khamenei may have set in motion events that may lead to his own demise and the weakening of the very tenets of the Islamic state he voraciously defends at all costs."

Is that better described as irony,... or as poetic justice?

[drkazmd65]

From the article:
"In other words, Ali Khamenei may have set in motion events that may lead to his own demise and the weakening of the very tenets of the Islamic state he voraciously defends at all costs."

Is that better described as irony,... or as poetic justice?