Decision 2009 -- Iran's June 12 Elections

As President Obama calibrates his engagement policy with Iran and plans his next steps with the vexing Islamic Republic, that nation will go to the polls on June 12 to elect a president. The election will have important implications for the U.S. and the future of Middle East stability since it constitutes a referendum on President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's confrontational global policies and domestic economic policy failures as he likely runs for a second four year term.

And Ahmadinejad's opponents are wasting no time questioning whether Iran can afford another four years of his demagoguery and missteps.

In the run up to next month's election the candidates are anxiously jockeying to garner crucial support within a broad cross section of Iranian constituency groups as they crisscross Iran campaigning.

Ahmadinejad has the advantage at the outset since he controls Iran's vast state media which will inevitably give short shrift to the challengers. While there is no "pre-voting," the next several weeks of electioneering contain all the trappings of a combined primary/caucus system. Somewhat like the Iowa's caucus system or MIchigan-like straw voting (admittedly a bit of a stretch), leaders of key voting blocs throughout Iran's cities and provinces begin to demonstrate their leanings by taking sides and providing crucial financial and political aid in the run up to the actual balloting.

Although Ahmadinejad's electoral fate is important because it signals where Iran may tilt in its confrontation with the west, the June election should not be interpreted as a dispositive referendum on Iran's dangerous game of chicken with Israel and the United States over its nuclear program.

Why so?

Because under Iran's constitution the fate of the nuclear program resides not with its elected president but with its unelected Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Although the Iranian president is the person most in the international spotlight, Khamenei is the SOLE decider when it comes to Iran's nuclear aspirations and state sponsorship of terrorism. Moreover, none of the key contenders would dare criticize Iran's nuclear ambitions -- to do so would be political suicide.

But Ahmadinejad's electoral fate could influence how the Supreme Leader gauges Iranian public opinion and the consequences of continuing on the path of confrontation with the West and Arab states.

Ironically, the ever cagey Ahmadinejad has yet to officially declare his candidacy for re-election (and why he is waiting has led to many a conspiracy theory). But no one believes he would step aside and not seek a second, four year term unless he were to be tossed overboard by the Supreme Leader. After all, Ahmadinejad takes great pleasure grabbing the international spotlight with his bellicosity, cut-throat domestic political record and vicious anti-Israel and holocaust-denying diatribes. So far, Ayatollah Khamenei has not evidenced sufficient displeasure with Ahmadinejad's antics to cast doubt on his reelection chances.

Joining Ahmadinejad on the ballot is a lengthy list of challengers. But three candidates stand out and are, by most observers, the leading contenders. They are: Mohsen Rezaei, a former commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guards. Mehdi Karroubi, a former Speaker of Iran's parliament. And Mir Hossein Mousavi, who was a prime minister in the 1980s.

Rezaei, 57, is the most ultra-conservative of the bunch -- and surprisingly, the most vocal critic of Ahmadinejad's confrontational foreign policies (he has even indicated a willingness to cooperate with the U.S. on "regional security"). He has attacked Ahmadinejad for provoking global antipathy toward Iran and unnecessarily subjecting Iran to economic sanctions that have undermined Iran's economy. Coming from a former commander of the Revolutionary Guards that is tough talk that may resonate among the president's core supporters. Rezaei is not viewed as the leading challenger, however. Rather, he is viewed as a potential spoiler -- taking crucial conservative votes away from Ahmadinejad. True to his Revolutionary Guard pedigree, Rezaei is wanted by Interpol in the 1994 bombing of the Jewish community center in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

Karroubi and Mousavi are vying for the "reformist" label, and are allied with former President Muhammad Khatami, who abruptly withdrew from the race.

Mousavi is viewed as the leading challenger to Ahmadinejad. A respected reformist who has the backing of Iran's former president Akbar Rafsanjani. Leaving the dirty work against Ahmadinejad to Rezaei, Mousavi is calling for a new social compact among the Iranian people and supports improved relations with the west. His chances of unseating the incumbent will greatly depend on whether the reformers can forge a sufficient anti-Ahmadinejad coalition and coalesce around Mousavi, or wind up splitting the protest vote among reformist candidates. The back room haggling to prevent that from happening has begun in earnest.

Ultimately, a win for Ahmadinejad may augur a dangerous showdown with Washington and Jerusalem, with enormous consequences to Iran in the long run. Alternatively, a win for one of the reformers could signal a stand down from confrontation and usher in a long period of tentative engagement with the west and major reforms at home that could set the Islamic Republic on a more moderate road. The whole world is watching which of these two roads Iran's voters prefer from their Supreme Leader.

Comments

[ApolloSpeaks]

QUALIFICATIONS FOR IRAN'S PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES

No one, but no one in Iran is allowed to run for president unless they are single-minded, dedicated ideologically pure Khomeine jihadists living body and soul for the nonnegotiable goals of the Iranian Revolution: regional and world hegemony. As Iran cannot achieve status as a world power without nuclear weapons their nuke program too is nonnegotiable. Accept reality: the only way to stop the intransigent mullahs is regime change.

[TheEmptinessOfTruthiness]

Lots of sound and fury in that post.

They were well on their way to being exactly the kind of power you want until 1953, when all of this began.

Why am I responding to a single-minded, dedicated, ideologically pure zealot? I don't know either.

[Fein]

And the other thing is, as I'm sure Marc knows, who's elected is decided behind the scenes by the Mullahs.

The more Israel and the Neocons bluster, the more power Ahmadinejad's faction has. That alone may decide the matter - as the Israelis and the Neocons well know.

[ApolloSpeaks]

The Arab nations have joined the Isreailis and neo-cons in blustering about the evil murdering mullahs and their deadly nuke program.

[apduncan1]

Propaganda Propaganda Propaganda Propaganda

[Raster]

I don't think Ahmadinejad can lose now that Netanyahu, and in particular Avigdor Lieberman, have assumed the leadership of Israel.

[TheEmptinessOfTruthiness]

Bingo. Mission accomplished. Endless war with the occasional intermission.

[monelis]

Don’t underestimate the mullah’s nor Ahmadinejad, he knows that his anti-Israel speeches sells well on Arab streets and his words even though nonsense is dreadful and poisons to our dictators in the Middle East. Certainly cheap oil and sales of outdated weapons are the deciding factors by Western governments in supporting any group or dictators. So I am sure we want Ahmadinejad gone before we get pushed into making another failed policy supported by AIPAC and Neo-Cons.

So lets pray for peace and for world’s sake lets not sacrifice everyone else’s life for our own luxury and leisure.

[ApolloSpeaks]

A change of presidency in Iran will not affect the regional and global ambitions of the mullahs. Only destruction will stop their march of destiny.

[apduncan1]

Propaganda Propaganda Propaganda Propaganda

[zaz33]

This is the sccond possible solution to the Iranian nuclear enrichment issue that most are not aware of.

This is alleged to be a US offer which Iran would accept. The proposal would be a central nuclear fuel bank possibly located in Kazakhstan.

This also appears to be a "problem solved" solution. -

http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=90690&sectionid=351020104

[zaz33]

There are two problem solving solutions for the nuclear enrichment issue that I'm aware of. This is not classified information but for obvious reasons,is not being reported.

Iran has offered to turn their enrichment program into a consortium. This means Western companies like GE could become HANDS ON partners in the enrichment process on Iranian soil.

Problem solved, in my opinion. Google "Iran nuclear consortium" for more information. -

http://www.ask.com/bar?q=iran+nuclear+consortium&page=1&qsrc=0&ab=3&u=http%3A%2F%2Fnews.xinhuanet.com%2Fenglish%2F2009-02%2F22%2Fcontent_10871481.htm

[Wozzeck]

That Iran's nuclear program poses an "existential threat" to Israel, with its hundreds of nuclear weapons, is pure propaganda. Israel enjoys being the bully in the neighborhood and Iran's growing economic and political importance threatens its hegemony.

[phute]

Too right.
This 'threat' is, in reality, an ongoing ploy perpetrated by successive Israeli governments and their cohorts to stifle any real progress re Israel's annexaton of Palestinian lands.

[ApolloSpeaks]

LIke Israel the apocalyptic mullahs almost certainly have a Samson Option which is why they mustn't get the bomb.

[hodz]

The choice is between bad apples and a rotten apple. The whole election is a charade. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei decides and the result is announced accordingly.

[louisamast]

Sounds like our 2000 election!

[zaz33]

hodz -

Evidence ?

[vancedecker]

Finally!

Has everyone gone completely insane?

Even your apple's analogy is inaccurate­.This surreal confabulation is more akin to an insane homeless man to whom you have just given a quarter but demands five dollars and then screams at you for being a liar.

The homeless man is the Iranian people. The Ayatollah is the charitable pedestrian who walks on telling himself that he is a good person for giving that man a quarter.

Similarly, the pedestrian is somewhat concerned that insane man will hurl a brick at the back of his head for not giving in to his demands, but the quarter will probably be sufficient to ward off such a possibility.

[louisamast]

No surprise that your knowledge of Iran and Iranian politics is very poor. Perhaps because you mostly devote your time looking for criticism rather than facts.
1. The presidential term is 5 years not 4.
2. The Supreme Leader is also elected by an elected committee called The Guardian Committee.
3. Unlike what is pretended in our MSM, Ahmadinejad has a huge follower in Iran and in most Asian countries.
4. What has hurt the people of Iran mostly is not Ahmadinejad, it is the unfair terrible economical and financial sanctions imposed by the Western countries mainly US. Unlike people here, most people in Iran know this fact.
5. When it comes to election, based on history, most Iranians have learned to vote for someone who is disliked the most by the Western Countries mainly US.

[PepsiHooligan]

"1. The presidential term is 5 years not 4."

No, it's not.

Ahmedinejad was elected in 2005, and it's now election time again in 2009.

"2. The Supreme Leader is also elected by an elected committee called The Guardian Committee.­"

The supreme Leader is not an elected official no matter how much you twist and turn the facts. Its' not as straightforward as a dictator showing on the ballot by himself and being elected with 99% of the vote, but he might as well be. Here's an enlightening article by Akbar Ganji:

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/64606/akbar-ganji/the-latter-day-sultan

"3. Unlike what is pretended in our MSM, Ahmadinejad has a huge follower in Iran and in most Asian countries.­"

Funny, I hear people defending Iran by saying he's not actually popular and doesn't represent Iran!

In any case, Iran is not a free country. We don't really know how popular he is. It can be easily deduced however that the conservatives are not popular in Iran, let alone the most extreme of them like Ahmedinejad.

And I'm not sure how it's a positive that he has a 'huge following' anyway. Bin Laden also has quite a few muslims following him. As did Hitler. (And Bush if it makes you feel better, he's worse than all of them of course!)

[PepsiHooligan]

Certainly that support in Asian countries is something to be sought off, being the hero of the Arab street for denying an atrocity like the Holocaust is something to be proud of and says quite a lot of those civilized and humane Asian countries.

"4. What has hurt the people of Iran mostly is not Ahmadinejad, it is the unfair terrible economical and financial sanctions imposed by the Western countries mainly US. Unlike people here, most people in Iran know this fact."

It's quite a thing to see these posts on liberal sites, quite another to even go further than the conservatives in Iran! Ha! Even the conservatives blame Ahmedinjeda for the economy. Yes, the US has its' influence (I'm sure Iran would never put sanctions or do anything to a country that chants 'Death to Iran' every Sunday!) but Ahemdinejad's policies have been nothing but disastrous. He squandered Irans oil stabilization fund while oil pries were sky high! How much more incompetent can you get! ROFL.

"5. When it comes to election, based on history, most Iranians have learned to vote for someone who is disliked the most by the Western Countries mainly US."

Is that why in a poll that got Abid jailed and tortured, the majority of Iranians thought the US should have relations with the US? Heh.

This particular comment shows how ignorant you are of Iran.

Ahemedinjeda won because of economic inequality, not his anti-western rhetoric. That only came later.

[csavage]

I think it's also worth noting that, in 2005, he was running against a cleric and was viewed as the more moderate choice. His hard line turn came after he was elected. As a doc, I have an opportunity to work with Iranian docs. I see a general disappointment in them when I ask them about him. I've always considered him to NOT represent the feelings of the Iranian people as a whole and that's one of the many reasons Washington "saber rattling" annoys me. We should be supporting his opposition, not being the "boogeyman" that he can use to unite Iranian conservatives who might otherwise oppose him on his economic policies

[louisamast]

Yoy need to polish your informacial. There are still too many twists and turns!

[PepsiHooligan]

Also forgot to add, if Iranians, 'based on history' as you put it, elect those disliked the most by western countries, then why did they elect Khatami?

This 'history' of yours has no basis in reality.

It's fascinating to see people construct new realities based on their ideologies, prejudices, and wishes, utterly divorced from what's actually going on.

[louisamast]

Without surprise your knowledge of Iran and Iranian politics is very poor. Perhaps because you mostly devote your time looking for criticism rather than facts.
1. The presidential term is 5 years not 4.
2. The Supreme Leader is also elected by an elected committee called The Guardian Committee.
3. Unlike what is pretended in our MSM, Ahmadinejad has a huge follower in Iran and in most Asian countries.
4. What has hurt the people of Iran mostly is not Ahmadinejad, it is the unfair terrible economical and financial sanctions imposed by the Western countries mainly US. Unlike people here, most people in Iran know this fact.
5. When it comes to election, based on history, most Iranians have learned to vote for someone who is disliked the most by the Western Countries mainly US.

[Wozzeck]

The author's statement that Iran's Supreme Leader is unelected is false.
Iran's Supreme Leader is elected by the Assembly of Experts, which is in turn elected by the public.

[PepsiHooligan]

It really is fascinating reading things like this. Perhaps next you'll assert that saddam hussein was an iraqi hero mourned to this day by the shia and kurds of iraq? I wonder.

[Wozzeck]

Try Wikipedia, Professor.

[Wozzeck]

"Ironically, the ever cagey Ahmadinejad has yet to officially declare his candidacy for re-election (and why he is waiting has led to many a conspiracy theory)."

He registered to be a candidate today. The registration period opened May 5.