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Israel's Diplomatic "JewJitsu"
In the past few months, Israel's embattled Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has been skillfully skating one step ahead of a potential criminal indictment by launching a full blown, unprecedented diplomatic offensive on 3 major fronts -- which strategically plays into Israel's goal of clearing the decks, so to speak if Israel decides to launch a preemptive attack on Iran's nuclear installations.
Israel has secretly accomplished more diplomatically in the past few months with its adversaries than anything that Condi Rice could have or would have brokered in years -- a glaring testament to the ever-shrinking influence of the U.S. in the region and Israel's diplomatic dexterity even if it means ignoring Cheney/Rice & Co. "isolate 'em" approach to failed diplomacy
On the first front, Israel cut a cease fire agreement with its hated adversary, Hamas last week that has produced a welcome respite from the cross Gaza border war. On its second exposed northern border, Israel also is currently negotiating indirectly with Hezbollah through the good offices of the German Foreign Ministry to obtain the release of the two abducted reservists whose kidnapping triggered the 2006 Israel -- Hezbollah conflict and to further pacify the southern Lebanese border area where Hezbollah has been actively rearming under the very noses of the United Nations peacekeeping force. A potential deal is in jeopardy because at the 11th hour Hezbollah insisted that Israel release Palestinians held by Israel in addition to Hezbollah prisoners. And, on the most far-reaching third diplomatic track Turkey has been officially mediating a potential peace treaty between Israel and Syria -- mediation publicly acknowledged by these two long time adversaries.
Who would have guessed that Israel would have reversed course on so many fronts at once and actually make such tangible progress with its sworn enemies.
There is a great deal of merit to Israel's diplomacy notwithstanding PM Olmert's personal travails.
First, with respect to Hamas, Israel's policy of isolation was achieving little with each passing day. Palestinians holed up in Gaza were suffering from humanitarian shortages, and Israel was unable to silence the Qassam rockets that were terrorizing its southern cities and towns. The question is whether this very shaky ceasefire will hold even a fortnight, and to what end given Hamas' determination to continue its policy of destroying Israel. If the ceasefire is violated, it will probably be because Hamas' leadership was unable, or unwilling to enforce discipline on Hamas' sister terror organizations, Islamic Jihad and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, which have conveniently joined in the rocket melee, but are separate groups not falling under Hamas' sway. In that case, there is a strong likelihood that Israel will use a resumption of hostilities to move forcefully into Gaza once and for all and force Hamas out of the Gaza Strip once and for all, but at considerable cost.
Second, the deal with Hezbollah is an entirely different diplomatic maneuver directly linked to Israel's negotiations with Syria through Turkish intermediaries. Israel's goal is to reduce Syria's ties with Iran, and compel Syria to exert influence over Hezbollah militarily by ceasing Iran's requipping Hezbollah through Syria. Time will tell whether Hezbollah strikes a deal that will enable Israel to repatriate the bodies of its fallen soldiers -- a matter of great importance to Israel.
Third, the Syria-Israeli negotations, publicly acknowledged by Syria, are the most intriguing. Launched secretly months ago by Olmert over Bush administration objections, the negotiations have, according to my sources, made significant progress on a variety of fronts -- the status of the Golan Heights, Syria's role in Lebanon, normalization of ties, closing terror offices in Damascus, etc.. And it is conceivable that Syria's President Assad and Israel's Olmert will actually meet on the margins of a French-sponsored conference on Mediterranean security next month.
What actually lies behind this three-front diplomatic extravaganza is Israel's desire to clear the decks, so to speak, in the event it decides to attack Iran's nuclear installations. Israel believes that, from a diplomatic and military perspective, it is far better to have a negotiated period of calm on its northern and southern borders with Iran's principal anti-Israeli proxies in the event Israel determines that global diplomacy and sanctions have run their course, making an attack on Iran a last, but necessary resort.
Just last week, Israel's carrots and sticks diplomacy was on full display when it was revealed that Israel's air force had undertaken a major, and noisy military exercise aimed at sending a message to Iran and to the international community that Israel will not tolerate Iran developing a nuclear weapon -- all the while consecutively pursuing each of these three diplomatic tracks.
What is glaringly missing in this diplomatic "Jew Jitsu" is any tell tale evidence that there may be a super-secret fourth diplomatic track between Iran and Israel notwithstanding the continuing efforts by the European Union and the International Atomic Energy Agency to broker a decision by Iran to cease its uranium enrichment program.. Is it possible that Syria is conveying messages back to Tehran as part of its Turkish-mediated diplomatic track with Israel? Highly unlikely given the statements calling for Israel's destruction periodically uttered by Iran's obsessed leadership, and Israel's legitimate concern that Iran possessed of nuclear weapons poses an existential threat to Israel's very existence.
Whatever may be the long-term outcome of Israel's diplomatic multi-dimensional balancing acts, there is no doubt that by making a virtue of necessity, Israel has deftly proven that it is not bound to a diplomatic straitjacket made in the bowels of the White House and State Department.
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Reading of comments posted here should be required reading for every American Jew.
Oh, how the money would flow to AIPAC and Jewish Defense League.
Your fascistic stereotype of American Jews is outrageous. Many deplore Israel's criminality and are among the people commenting against its outrageous actions, which threaten world peace.
Aravay hysterical post confirms my point exactly.
And certainly, Muslim Jihadist movement perpetrating hideous crimes across the globe in Europe, Asia, Africa and Australia don't threaten world peace. right
Deal with it.
Scoreboard:
Egypt and Jordan achieved considerable progress for their citizens by making peace with Israel which endures.
They did this by becoming convinced that Israel cannot be defeated on the field of battle.
Middle East benefited from this development.
Now only if Palestinians and their Iranian and Syrian puppet masters would come to same conclusion.... One day, maybe when Palestinians get leadership worthy of their national aspirations and worthy of international recognition.
Because right now they have a weakling in West Bank and some choice rabid fanatics in Gazastan.
But you Jew haters keep whining. Like anyone cares.
If only Israel could use its diplomatic prowess in its struggle with Iran! If world diplomacy fails, and Israel or its neocon proxy Bush bombs Iran, this would be an incredible disaster for Israel in America. A leading expert on the oil market predicted recently that such an attack would double or triple the price of oil overnight. This would clearly crater the US and foreign stock markets, which would, in turn, threaten a worldwide depression. Can you imagine what the rage of the American masses against Israel would be like if Americans concluded that Israel had singlehandedly caused the American price of gas at the pump to jump to $10 or $15 a gallon? If Americans witnessed Israel doing this to gas prices and causing a depression as a result, support for Israel would evaporate, and Israel would lose what is literally its only friend in the world, a suicidal disaster at least as threatening to Israel in the long run as Iranian nukes.
worldwide depression ...incredible disaster... a suicidal disaster... rage... of the American masses...$10 or $15 a gallon
Wow. Renoir ( re Noir?) Do you actually believe your own babbling? Amazing.....
I find the tittle "Israel's Diplomatic "JewJitsu" antisemitic( yes i know he is Jewish ). It implies that Jews are engaged in some manipulation. I don't think it is helpful to play into stereotypes against the Jewish people. Jewish have enough problems without you putting the failings of Israel's diplomacy at the feet of Jews in general.
Other than that, the weak diplomacy of the United States seems has more to do with the policy of letting Israel do whatever it wants without criticism. You can't get anything done by just insulting Arabs and refusing to talk to them while at the same time agreeing with everything their 60 year pain in the butt has to say. Kissing Israel's butt is not a strategy for peace or success.
Temporary regional hegemony with a hostile nationalistic angry population that hates you more with each passing day is a time bomb. I don't see anything being done to diffuse the anger, in fact it seems the anger toward Israel is going global. I would like to see something done about that because increasing antisemitism is bad for the Jewish people and the world. Israel is not helping, it ought to do more to diffuse the tension, make commitments to respect its neighbors (not promises to bomb them) , and obey international law respecting the rights of the palestinians.
Maybe the problem is Arabs do not want peace with Israel. But it is far easier to attack Israel than to deal honestly with the situation in the region.
Your right and wrong.
You are wrong that it is easier to attack Israel. You are right Arabs may not want peace.
Taking a stance against Israel in America is never easy. Have you seen a single politician on the National Stage do this? One needs a great deal of courage to speak against Israel's actions in America even if your a former President.
The Jewish people are being dragged through the mud by the actions of the Jewish state. I don't know who it serves to engage in this constant militarism and persecution of refugees. It pains me and others to have these things come about. There comes a time when you have to speak out for the good of America and the Jewish people. The rise of antisemitism caused by these events is tremendous. Nobody wants to talk about it but its there. Look at the comments, it was not like this a year ago. Imagine what you would see without a moderator.
As far as the Arab's desire for peace, America and Israel spent a very long time refusing to negotiate who do we suppose to blame for that, oh yes the terrorist. I suppose we can place the fate of all humanity on whether or not some refugee is willing to blow himself up to draw attention to the plight of his people or as some see it because he simply hates Jews.
Israelis have to be aware that a change is going on in American public opinion about how far we are supposed to go in support of this expansionist state, whose lobbies & friends in our Congress, are quite literally forcing our leadership to give the green light for yet another costly, messy war in the Middle East. Against whom? Another Muslim nation that has NOT attacked us, but may provide a real barrier for achieving their "colonial" goal of the greater Israel (from the Nile to the Euphrates). Our hapless elected officials may be compromised, but the rest of us are not. Fortunately, more Americans are waking up, & the issue of economic sanctions against Israel, now being debated by the national Presbyterian convention, is a beginning. I do not hold out much hope that the Presbyterians will be able to withstand the onslaught of lobbying that is occurring as we speak at the convention, but isn't this the a good beginning? Good luck, Presbyterians out in San Jose!
Many Americans have already connected the dots between Israel, the neocons, and the debacle in Iraq. There is literally NO chance that the American public would stand for a war with Iran. And if Israel itself or its neocon proxy Bush actually bombs Iran and causes $10 or $15 dollar a gallon gas at the American pump, with the stock market crash and depression which such skyrocketing oil prices would cause, Israel's support by America will be history. All the money of Jewish donors and all the influence of AIPAC will be helpless against the rage of American voters. Israel has to wake up and realize what a huge PR hit it has taken in the American electorate because of the neocon creation of, and lying about, the war in Iraq, as a proxy war for Israel, rather than a war with any real prospect of aiding America in its war on terror. Israel is truly politically on the brink of disaster in this country. If it tries to push war in Iran, or bombs Iran, it truly will have signed its political death warrant in America.
Two words: "Condi Who?"
As long as the US continues to fuel the hatred between Israel and certain Arab countries, that fire will continue to burn and not one single human being benefits from it.
Taxpayers in this country give Israel the best in aircraft and defense systems and then 'sells' that same war equipment (F-15 fighter aircraft, M1-A1 tanks and Patriot missiles) to Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia ran the US out of their country, so now has to build new bases in a country like Iraq.
Why does the US have to keep troops in the Middle East? Answer: OIL. It won't be fun to watch US pilots playing referee, using the same planes as the Arabs and Israelis. Guess who loses? Answer: Everyone.
If it's any consolation to you, I highly doubt that either side in your future war will have the very latest technological updates that our pilots have today for the 'same war equipment'...
America and Israel, run by criminals at the top. Not so strange bedfellows.
In order to have a say in diplomacy, you have to talk. In order to make it meaningful you have to talk with your adversary. This is a concept that Republican assholes don't like because of the fear and hate mongering. I want to remind you that long before Reagan spoke those "Mr Gorbachev, tear this wall down" words, there were contacts between the two Germany's and the USSR in a environment without the USA interfering. One of the constitutional article stated that reunification is a priority. When these talks went to far, Reagan unilateral moved nukes into Germany to prevent any further diplomacy and reunification at this time. He also caused the collapse of a rather successful middle - left coalition. US foreign policy repeatedly tried to strong arm foreign governments, including overthrowing middle left governments. There is no difference to the Bush administration with one difference, Bush can't speak. He is no orator like Reagan was. He is also inherently stubborn and lazy. Secretary Rice does not deserve the title that makes her chief executive of diplomacy. From the very beginning, the isolationism of the administration isolated the US from the rest of the world, that has decided that Washington is not relevant enough to generate results. Then Iraq happened. 911 was just a symbol of a world losing faith in the strength of the US.
Turns out that the US is bound by the straitjacket knit in the bowels of Israel's foreign office, and now we just have to wait and watch to see if they start World War Three. If Israel's diplomacy and military is so effective and capable, why do we to this very day have to send them money and armament? Why is it we send them more of each than we do to every other government on earth?Just to show we're pals?
Guess what? If Israel "decides to launch a preemptive strike" against Iran's non-existent nuclear weapons program, then the destruction and chaos that will ensue will pretty much kill any chances for peace in the Middle East in this half-century.
The fact is that Israel by itself is not capable of destroying all of Iran's nuclear facilities without resorting to its own nuclear weapons, so the U.S. will be dragged into the conflict by the albatross around its neck. The American ground forces in Iraq will become besieged sitting ducks, the supply lines through Kuwait could be cut by Shiite militias in the south of Iraq, working in tandem with Iranian special forces, and the "Green Zone" will be reduced to rubble by Iranian missiles. American Stalingrad. Oil goes to 350.00 a barrel. Iranian missiles would also hit targets in Israel, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the other gulf states. Moqutada Al Sadr will become the prime minister and dictator of Iraq, and call on the population to expel the American occupiers. Russia and China would sit by and watch salivating at the prospect of America's strategic collapse.
Any one of these possibilities would be catastrophic; all of them together would be cataclysmic. And all because congress cannot say no to the lobby of a foreign power!
As I agree with you in nearly every detail, I suppose you were writing in support of my response to this article, to which I say: thanks for reading!
The amazing thing is how no one talks about the economic fallout of the huge gas price spike which either war in Iran or bombing Iran would cause in America and the world. It would make the run-up in gas prices during the past year look like nothing. The American public would be so enraged by Israel's having caused this economic debacle that no politician with any hint of loyalty to Israel would be electable outside places like NYC and Boca Raton. Anyone who cares about the alliance between Israel and America had better pray that Obama is elected. And that Bush is prevented from carrying out Bill Kristol's idea that if Obama's ahead in the fall, Bush will have to bomb Iran. Paradoxically, it's Obama's unique independence from Israel, because he made himself independent of rich Jewish donors by going directly to the Net for support, which would allow him to save Israel from itself in relation to Iran and the whole Muslim world. Bush has the lowest approval rating of any president in polling history because America is already apoplectic about Iraq. If McCain thinks he'll be able to bomb or go to war with Iran, as a "friend" of Israel, if he's elected, he's nuts. The American public would shut down the country. Israel's Massada-complex regarding Iran and its nukes is understandable. But if it turns the American people against it in trying to defend itself, it will have committed suicide.
adam, check your facts. just because some random jihadi group claims to be sending missiles in "retaliation" doesn't mean it actually happened.
yet again hamas screws over the peace effort
Which fact do you want him to check? That Israel killed two Palestinians in Nablus does not seem to be in dispute. Is your claim that the fact that Israel took the opportunity of the cease fire to carry out a raid in the West Bank may not have been the reason that Islamic Jihad broke the cease fire? That is possible. But it does seem like if Israel was really committed to peace then they might respond to Palestinian cease fires by not killing Palestinians and seeing how the Palestinians respond.
The pattern of using cease fires to kill Palestinians and then pointing to the Palestinian response as evidence they weren't silly only works to convince people who are not thinking about the region with even minimal rationality.
Hey Marc.... Israel was just bombed today..... No terrorist acts in the USA since Sept 11....Pres Bush policy seems to be working quite well
Excellent point.
And only a little over 4000 soldiers dead in that time. That comes to only a little over 4000 more Americans than were killed by terrorists during the Clinton years. That Bush is such a genius. Oh the joys of occupation.
Israel just had missiles fired on them and the silence is deafening. As long as jews die all will remain quiet. The second they move to defend themselves the world and phony liberals will lampoon them.
Ein Devar
Israel had missiles fired at them as response to Israeli killing of Palestinians. The cry of "we are so besieged that our enemies actually fire back at us" is not a great clarion call.
No One was Hurt.
Let the peace process continue.
Talk.
The idea that Israel can successfully act as a free agent now is nuts. If Israel craters the American economy by bombing Iran and devastating the American economy as a result, it will be toast politically in this country. American Jewish money and AIPAC will be helpless to save it in America if the American public becomes infuriated with Israel.
Thanks for spearheading the Israeli propaganda front.
"given the statements calling for Israel's destruction periodically uttered by Iran's obsessed leadership, and Israel's legitimate concern that Iran possessed of nuclear weapons poses an existential threat to Israel's very existence"
Mossad no doubt has hundreds of employees fluent in Farsi and there can be no doubt that they are fully aware that the translation reads: "the Zionist regime must be erased from the pages of time". Not Israel. Not Jews. Zionism. Nothing could be clearer. Far from being "obsessesd" Iran's leadership has shown remarkable restraint in the face of daily threats from both the insane blowhards in the Israeli government and the Israel-firsters in the Whore House.
It is not Israel who faces an "existential threat" it is Iran staring across the Iraqi and Afghani borders at a belligerent "superpower", across the Gulf at the 5th Fleet with their fighter jets and cruise missiles pointed at them, at the spineless sycophants in the UK and France, and at Israel's 150-250 NUCLEAR WEAPONS, US-taxpayer-supplied fighter jets, bunker busters, and cluster bombs.
Anyway, Israel's ambidextrous "three-front diplomatic extravaganza" amounts to delaying and lying on one hand to buy time, while preparing for YET ANOTHER War Crime in pursuit of regional hegemony at the expense of it's neighbours.
The only thing worse than Israel's slow-motion genocide of Arabs and it's neighbours is the relentless BS issuing from the snouts of it's enablers and apologists.
Poor Iran. It is the U.S.'s fault for everything. I see now that the Iranian leader has been "forced" by the U.S. to make ignorant (related to the Holocaust) and offensive statements (total destruction of Israel and the citizens) for years.
Actually it IS the US's fault: blind allegiance to Israel and it's war crimes; illegal invasions of sovereign nations; economic sabotage of any country that defies US hegemony and globalist raping; overthrowing governments it doesn't like; torturing innocents; killing innocents by the millions (Iraq, Afghanistan, etc); and basically sticking their greedy snouts into everybody else's business.
What, exactly, don't you comprehend?
All I hear from Bush and Israel are offensive statements about their "Enemies". Israel and America have recently invaded countries in the Middle East. Who do you think we should blame for regional instability? Yeah it is America and Israel's fault, they are still engaged in Militarism and unnecessary provocation. They are both reluctant to engage in diplomacy. They are both making unreasonable demands that speak more to their desire to control the region than it does to peace.
The Bosh administration did not tell Israel to break off negotiations with Syria, who was at one time giving valuable information about Taliban targets.
It was more the other way around, though at one time Mr Olmert may have claimed it was so.
This article is misleading, to be polite about it.
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Posted June 23, 2008 | 11:34 PM (EST)