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Amb. Marc Ginsberg

Amb. Marc Ginsberg

Posted: July 3, 2010 06:00 PM

This 4th of July weekend, war weary Americans are being force-fed more foreboding Afghan geography, just as they were force-fed Iraqi geography. "Marja," "Helmund," and now "Kandahar."

These names of the Taliban's birthplace and heartland mean little to most Americans, but everything to the thousands of U.S. soldiers deployed in southern Afghanistan, and their families back in the U.S. who know that the pending battle for Kandahar is shaping up to be the pivotal engagement in the war against....against....whom exactly? The Taliban? Al Qaeda? The Taliban that matter?

Many empires have fought over the centuries to control Kandahar -- a city of 450,000 and Afghanistan's second largest -- due to its strategic location. It has also once served as the capital of the Afghan empire, and more recently, as the capital of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan until the Taliban were routed from it after 9/11. But when America turned its back yet again on Afghanistan to invade Iraq, a good part of it was recaptured by the Taliban; and a small part was recaptured by Hamid Karzai's corrupt warlord half brother, Ahmed Wali Karzai.

So why should Americans and their fellow NATO soldiers die for Kandahar? I frankly don't know...since the dots just don't seem, at least on paper or via media reports, to connect.

The cornerstone of General Petreaus' military strategy comes down to this...to weaken the Taliban into a more defensive, negotiating posture, Americans will have to fight door-to-door in Kandahar to rid 4 of its 10 parishes of entrenched Taliban and in so doing win the hearts and minds of its inhabitants and turn them away from the Taliban -- classic counter-insurgency surge doctrine...but not classic counter counter-terrorism doctrine. Then turn the city over to Hamid Karzai (who will inevitably turn it over to his corrupt half brother) to administer.

Gen. Petreaus testified this week before Congress that capturing Kandahar is pivotal to NATO's strategy in Afghanistan. Sen. Carl Levin, the Chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee echoed that by stating that America's support for the war in Afghanistan "...will depend on this Fall (i.e., NATO offensive) in Kandahar."

I am not a general, and have no pretentions of becoming an arm-chair general. But the decision to pin a Petreaus -- directed revised counter-insurgency strategy on the conquest of Kandahar -- let alone the real-life cost of American lives and treasure - waves a red flag right in my face.

One need not wear a uniform to read a map....the Taliban's real sanctuary lies not in Kandahar, but across the border in Pakistan, in the city of Quetta. How can NATO sufficiently weaken the Taliban if it can evaporate across the border once we invade Kandahar? And, we have been telegraphing to them for months of our intentions to invade.

General Petreaus is a visionary military strategist and a remarkably accomplished leader. I greatly admire him. In an increasingly grim situation in Afghanistan deferring to his military judgment is understandable. But even he is not superhuman and even he cannot change what lurks in the dark vestiges of Hamid Karzai's heart.

Is it fair, therefore, to him and to our brave men and women to pin so much hope on a goal that even he has difficulty reducing to a believable elevator speech.

The Kandahar offensive is way behind schedule because the ingredients Petreaus needs to replicate his brilliantly executed Iraqi "take and hold" surge strategy are MIA , and it seems unlikely the ingredients will miraculously arrive by the Fall - like a cavalry relief column - to sustain any U.S.-led Kandahar battleground gains.

And what are some of those missing ingredients?

  1. An adequately trained, capable Afghan army and police force to take over from NATO. This week, an Inspector General's Report issued by the Pentagon exhorted the Defense Department for greatly exaggerating the real capability of Afghan troops and U.S. training results.
  2. A leadership in Kabul that the inhabitants of Kandahar respect. As a test in Marja, NATO parachuted in a "government-in-a-box" to win the hearts and minds of its inhabitants. Today, as Gen. McChrystal stated, Marja is a "bleeding ulcer; " and U.S. troops are under regular attack; the Taliban are slaughtering anyone who dares cooperate with NATO and by all accounts, there is nothing that resembles a sustainable Afghan government military or civilian presence.
  3. A trustworthy cadre of local officials working transparently and tirelessly with NATO to protect supply lines instead of the corruption prone organized crime-like war lords on whom NATO is banking (and opening its bank) to protect supply lines. It is common knowledge that while Kandahar is mostly in Afghan government hands - the hands that it is in are dirty. Ahmed Karzai by ALL accounts, runs a city hall that makes Tammany Hall look like a nursery school. His small tribe -- the Popalzai -- are the source of his mafia-style militia.
  4. A sustainable presence of allied NATO troops who will remain with us in and around Kandahar to help shoulder the American burden. Instead, Petreaus confronts the likelihood of a withdrawal of Dutch, Canadian and British troops just as the Fall offensive is about to commence, and responsibility will fall into the hands of 23 unregistered security companies who answer to their quartermaster, whoever that may be. Question: what do our allies know that we don't know?
  5. An ability to stop the Taliban's assassination spree of local officials, foreign aid workers and tribal elders before there is no one left inside Kandahar who can help sustain the hard-fought NATO gains. Not a day goes by when reports seep out of Kandahar of how successful the Taliban's own counter-U.S. insurgency campaign has been. In recent weeks, there has been report after report of beheadings, death threats, bombings and the like by the Taliban that is slowly ridding the city of anyone who can aid the surge from within. And there is growing local opposition to a military invasion among anti-Taliban elements inside and around Kandahar.
  6. Most importantly, a way to choke off the Taliban's access to its Pakistani sanctuaries. These sanctuaries inside Pakistan are like the oil spill: the source of a seemingly endless Taliban torrent that may undermine the best counter-insurgency strategy. Without a change of heart inside Pakistan against those sanctuaries, General Petreaus is about to wage a battle with two hands tied behind his back. That is no way to dispatch our best general to the battlefield.


If Gen. Petreaus is to convert a battlefield surge into a sustainable victory against the Taliban, it is increasingly unlikely that, under present conditions, Kandahar will yield even a modest return on investment.

The potentially insurmountable challenges NATO forces face before the gates of Kandahar are breached are shaping up to be a clarion call for compelling a major rethink whether Kandahar -- as General Petreaus most important Afghan experiment for applying "counter-insurgency in-a-box" is the right target. Mr. President, General Petreaus, it is not too late if it means saving even one American life.

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03:21 PM on 07/06/2010
"So why should Americans and their fellow NATO soldiers die for Kandahar? I frankly don't know..."

Besides the MIC's oil pipeline and mineral resources grab, the military is the best supplier of their cheap labor:

http://rationalrevolution.net/war/major_general_smedley_butler_usm.htm
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Norman Allen
It is forbidden to kill unless in large numbers an
11:32 AM on 07/06/2010
The dots are pointing to corporate desire to lay hands on the unobtainium ($trillion deposits that has been common knowledge to those specialized in the area) and for the strategic location in Central Asia (southern flank of Russia, northern control of the subcontinent and Iran, a dike against China). The problem? The people have no tolerance for any type of government and no respect for authority or feel for organized endeavor. Everyone is a king there. Good luck to those who try to control them short of a soldier pointing a gun at every man, woman and child to make them do anything.
lastpost
see biography
09:05 AM on 07/06/2010
“since the dots just don't seem, at least on paper or via media reports, to connect”
As long as the artists in question, Taliban, Al Qaeda, or other, don’t elect to draw-in any interconnecting information, they can allude to the representation as being anything they choose. In effect, their followers will willingly complete the work for them. Imagining an image of what they themselves might prefer to perceive in that picture. But if compelled to sketch in all the wilfully withheld data, all can see that rendition for what it truly is. And if that now unambiguous image doesn’t chime with every unique conceptualisation currently held, an uproar of realisation may well result.

“win the hearts and minds”
What are the chances of wining the heart of the animal? If the mind in the head with the teeth, hasn’t been attended to first?
07:58 AM on 07/06/2010
Vietnam II.

What can one say?
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01:50 PM on 07/06/2010
Afghanistan I?
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07:28 AM on 07/06/2010
It's amazing how such an intelligent president can be pursuing such an incredibly stupid folly.
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TheBurdicks
Whatever happened to my yellow bus?
08:41 AM on 07/06/2010
"...intelligent..."?

Sorry, but I can't agree. ..."such an intelligent president..." surely would turn to his intelligence for guidance in his decisions. Where is the intelligence in the continuing transfer of control of our government to the rich and powerful?

No,

It's hardly amazing how such a greedy narcissistic president can be pursuing such an incredibly self serving program securing his own place among the rich and powerful.
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10:47 AM on 07/06/2010
He does seem happy to be a part of the rich and powerful club now. There isn't a lot of concern from this White House about the poor and downtrodden, is there? I guess Afghanistan doesn't seem so hopeless when you are raking in billions in defense contracts.
11:03 AM on 07/06/2010
Hold your fire emsique, help is already on the way. President Obama is gadually paving the road OUT of these Bush / Cheney hellholes of blood and treasure. He has set timetables and has given the new general his shot at ending these wars on a successful note. It has taken him ONLY 18 moths to strat undoing the crimes of the 8-year prior war mongers. Yes, hold your fire; help IS ON THE AWY.
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12:36 PM on 07/06/2010
Meanwhile, probably hundreds of American soldiers will die, and countless more civilians, and for a fool's errand of a war. At best it's just another exercise in appeasement, this time for the pro war faction. Lives as well as treasure will be wasted just to say "I tried" to the likes of Bill Kristol???????? Withdrawal doesn't need to be gradual. We could start getting out tomorrow.
05:48 AM on 07/06/2010
Back in 2001 I was hoping that the U.S. reaction to 9/11 would materialize as a dazzling display of intelligence and effectiveness. I imagined that al-Qaeda top-brass would be captured by air-borne commandos and brought to the U.S. in chains. It's been nine years. Now I suspect that in the meantime Taliban has become a blanket word covering anyone in Afghanistan who opposes foreign presence. Mullah Omar has been quoted comparing the U:S. to Polyphemus, blinded by an enemy to whom they can't give a name. He might have a point, sort of.
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01:52 PM on 07/06/2010
How do you think osama spent his last 9 years?
01:43 AM on 07/07/2010
Ask the ISI. They must know.
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realitytrumpsbull
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11:41 PM on 07/05/2010
I think that maybe the answer to the Afghan problem is to be found in our own founding documents.
For, by, and of, the People. In this example, for, by, and of the Afghan people. Translation: At some point, for anything over there to be legitimate, it has to be of the people's own doing, and not imposed on them by outsiders. Our country threw out the British . Why? We got tired of being a colony, told em to hit the road and take their tea and their taxes with them.

A lot of countries, now including ours, have tried to impose external rule on Afghanistan. I wonder if the folks there will ever see peace or resolve their differences until or unless basically everyone NOT an Afghani ships out and leaves em to it. Maybe, if we did things in our own country, and helped the Europeans also, by producing our own opium, that would put the opium exporters in Afghanistan out of business and they'd have to find a different, better livelihood. If they can grow opium, can they grow cocoa or coffee beans instead? Fresh from the sun-drenched hills of Afghanistan...how many hundreds of millions of people in this world drink coffee? Don't they already have arabica beans, so, some good foundation is right there in the general neighborhood, legit business for legit people with no guns and no more mad money from this country. Sometimes, help doesn't. People have to support themselves.
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Chas53
11:14 PM on 07/05/2010
Patraeus is the new "Westy".
08:00 AM on 07/06/2010
Yep.

"One, two, three, what are we fightin' for...?"
11:05 AM on 07/06/2010
No, Chas53, I don't think so. The timetables are already set, and the General will be given one last shot at extrication with some measure of success. Keep the Faith, help is already on the way.
09:58 PM on 07/05/2010
A few years back I met in Las Vegas a former Soviet soldier who served in Afghanistan. He was from Georgia and had been an NCO. He thought Afghanistan was hopeless and relayed the mindset we were up against. He went through a village and stopped the murder of a woman who was going to have her throat slit by her husband for the crime of leaving her house without his permission. They killed her husband as he tried to murder his wife; the only one thankful was the woman. The rest of the village cursed and threw rocks at them.
11:07 AM on 07/06/2010
Robert59's comments are much appreciated as a real-life picture o our " ALLIES " courtesy of theBush /Cheney war monger team. If these are our allies, who might the enemy be?
09:53 PM on 07/05/2010
You raise interesting facts Singh, but it looks like those opposed to modernization, literacy, equality, and more opportunities lost. Until the majority of Afghans want change and are willing to die, to fight, and to kill for it we are like the Soviets, in a no win situation. The Taliban are willing to die, fight, and kill for their beliefs, but the nonTaliban isn't. Their security forces would rather smoke hashish than kill Taliban. Their politicians would rather line their pockets with money than better the lives of the citizenry. We can't want it for them and expect to win.
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P51MUSTANG
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10:17 PM on 07/05/2010
Couldn't the same be said of Conservatives in America, with a few minor changes?
10:58 PM on 07/05/2010
Pretty funny. I think the same could be said of politicians on both sides of the aisle. 523 members of Congress and 10 to 20 of them have kids in the military. What's being touted as reform isn't; it's more handouts to the corporations. We'll see in the fall if progressives want it more than conservatives.
08:02 AM on 07/06/2010
Hey, man. They're every bit as good as ARVN.
09:47 PM on 07/05/2010
I think our leadership needs to come clean with the American people. What I sense is they have drunk from the neocon well and now ascribe to the same belief; democratize Iraq and Afghanistan and there will be peace. Hasn't worked so well in Iraq. I opine when we pull our combat troops out the civil war will begin. If our goal is the same in Afghanistan we need to be listening to Karzai; it will take 20 to 30 years to bring fundamental change to Afghanistan. Since we didn't do much the last 8 years, it will be 2030 before we see the fruits of our labors.
The bigger questions I have are: Is this the role of the United States? Can we afford it? Do the American people support it? Will it make us more secure or less? Where does it end? Should we do the same in places like Myannmar or Somalia? How does this contain Pakistan and squelch radical Islam?
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07:31 AM on 07/06/2010
Good questions, and I'll add:
Why are we really in Afghanistan?
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09:20 PM on 07/05/2010
Thousands of prisoners under the old regime were set free and police files burned in a gesture designed to emphasise an end to repression. In the poorest parts of Afghanistan, where life expectancy was 35 years, where infant mortality was one in three, free medical care was provided. In addition, a mass literacy campaign was undertaken, desperately needed in a society in which ninety percent of the population could neither read nor write.

The resulting rate of progress was staggering. By the late 1980s half of all university students in Afghanistan were women, and women made up 40 percent of the country's doctors, 70 percent of its teachers, and 30 percent of its civil servants. In John Pilger's 'New Rulers Of The World' (Verso, 2002), he relates the memory of the period through the eyes of an Afghan woman, Saira Noorani, a female surgeon who escaped the Taliban in 2001. She said: "Every girl could go to high school and university. We could go where we wanted and wear what we liked. We used to go to cafes and the cinema to see the latest Indian movies. It all started to go wrong when the mujaheddin started winning. They used to kill teachers and burn schools. It was sad to think that these were the people the West had supported."

Under the pretext that the Afghan government was a Soviet puppet, which was false, the then Carter Administration authorised the covert funding of opposition tribal groups,
06:13 AM on 07/06/2010
You raise an interesting point Singh. Needless to say, India and Pakistan have very different perspectives on those events. Pakistan supported the Mujaheddin and later the Taliban since they provided "strategic depth" against India. India tacitly supported the the Najbullah government and later the Northern Alliance for opposite reasons.
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avatar singh
09:19 PM on 07/05/2010
The CIA isn't going to give up its' opium profits that easily...
Opium production EXPLODED after the US invasion.
Ever wonder why?

CIA Heroin has a premium over generic in the world market. Good profits too!

Posted by: Ydotheyhateus on Jul 16, 2008 8:28 AM

""
There was a point in Afghanistan's tortured history when the future looked bright, when a determined effort to lift the country and its people out of backward agrarian feudalism almost succeeded.

It began with the formation of the communist People's Democratic Party of Afghanistan (PDPA) back in the sixties, which opposed the autocratic rule of King Zahir Shar. The growth in popularity of the PDPA eventually led to them taking control of the country in 1978, after a coup removed the former Kings' cousin, Mohammed Daud, from power.

The coup enjoyed popular support in the towns and cities, evidenced in reports carried in US newspapers. The Wall Street Journal, no friend of revolutionary movements, reported at the time that '150,000 persons marched to honour the new flagthe participants appeared genuinely enthusiastic.' The Washington Post reported that 'Afghan loyalty to the government can scarcely be questioned.

Upon taking power, the new government introduced a program of reforms designed to abolish feudal power in the countryside, guarantee freedom of religion, along with equal rights for women and ethnic minorities.
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07:26 AM on 07/06/2010
I remember really good Afghani hash that was prevalent during our covert help during the Soviet occupation. Helped buy a lot of arms for the resistance.
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avatar singh
09:17 PM on 07/05/2010
Z. Brzezinski: "Yes. According to the official version of history, CIA aid to the Mujahadeen began during 1980, that is to say, after the Soviet army invaded Afghanistan, 24 Dec 1979. But the reality, secretly guarded until now, is completely otherwise: Indeed, it was July 3, 1979 that President Carter signed the first directive for secret aid to the opponents of the pro-Soviet regime in Kabul...."

Zbigniew Brzezinski revealed a hidden Fact that on July 3, 1979, unknown to the public and American Congress that President Jimmy Carter secretly authorized $500 million to create an international terrorist movement that would spread Islamic fundamentalism in Central Asia and "de-stabilize" the Soviet Union...
The CIA called this Operation Cyclone and in the following years poured $4 billion into setting up Islamic training schools in Pakistan (Taliban means "student").

These people were sent to the CIA's spy training camp in Virginia, where future members of al-Qaeda were taught "sabotage skills" - terrorism.
Others were recruited at an Islamic school in Brooklyn, New York, In Pakistan; they were directed by British MI6 officers and trained by the SAS.
08:53 PM on 07/05/2010
This is the year 2010. Why are we still fighting a guerilla war using tha Resrves and the Army? Send all these wannabes home and leave it to the professionals, techology, air drones, The Marines, the Navy and Air Force. In world warll factories turned out thousands of bombers. Why can't drones be turned out on the cheap for the same reason not only for this war, but our but border security also? Downgrade the Army to all Reserves and save the country millions.
08:20 AM on 07/06/2010
Politically: totally incorrect.

Militariliy: totally incorrect.
11:14 AM on 07/06/2010
Surely, a large standing military is an inducement to wars of no purpose or legitimacy.. Creae a totally reserve military and the tendency to use it will be reduced to a rightful space.