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Amb. Marc Ginsberg

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Syria's Assad & America's Decaying Credibility

Posted: 07/06/11 08:23 PM ET

Now that we know who "allegedly" did the actual killing of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, who then ordered the hit job? Was it Hezbollah -- the Iranian-backed terrorist organization's whose chief Sheik Hassan Nasrallah despised Hariri and his Sunni compatriots? Syria's President Bashar al Assad, or one of his family members? The Iranian President or the Ayatollah... all of the above?

Let's recall that in February, 2005, the prime minister was killed along with six bodyguards and 16 innocent Lebanese pedestrians when Hariri's car was blown up by a huge bomb along Beirut's beachfront corniche. Originally, suspicion fell on Syria's Assad as the man behind the trigger man. After all, Hariri had dared to defy the Syrians by orchestrating efforts to reduce Syria's unwelcomed meddling in Lebanon, and in return, Hariri had been threatened repeatedly by Assad, according to independent media accounts.

This was no contract killing by rogue elements of Hezbollah. When the names leaked from the so-called sealed indictments issued by the special UN Tribunal investigating the hit job, it was the worst kept secret in the Middle East that senior Hezbollah leaders were going to be fingered. Although until a few days ago the actual perpetrators' names remained sequestered.

The indictments named Moustapha Badreddine, and Salim Ayyash -- each of whom held senior officer positions in Nasrallah's secret Hezbollah military intelligence unit. Badreddine is a Hezbollah deputy military commander and brother-in-law of the late Hezbollah master terrorist and murderer of Americans Imad Mughniyeh. The other two named culprits: Hassan Anaissy and Assad Sabra have as yet uncorroborated affiliations with any organization.

Well, let's dispose of the easy stuff first. Given the vagaries of Hezbollah, there is little doubt that Nasrallah himself directly ordered the assassination. For a man who denies culpability for any role Hezbollah may have played in the murder plot, Nasrallah has devoted the better part of the past six years trying to deflect guilt away from himself or Hezbollah by sabotaging the UN Tribunal. Like a broken record, Nasrallah has denounced anyone or anything associated with it, masterfully orchestrating a deceitful propaganda campaign against the tribunal in order to shield himself from the International Criminal Court.

It is inconceivable that Nasrallah would not have been privy to the plot given the fact that two of his faithful senior lieutenants have now been indicted after a painstaking, exhaustive and IMPARTIAL investigation. To think otherwise is to believe that Nasrallah is not the master of his entire shadowy Hezbollah domain... an absurd proposition given his absolute dictatorial power Nasrallah wields over Hezbollah. His methods to subvert justice have included threats, intimidation, and blackmail. Not normally the conduct of an innocent bystander crying foul at an internationally recognized judicial inquiry under the direct supervision of the United Nations.

The details of the plot remain under seal, but surely will leak out once the arrest warrants are issued by the Lebanese government prosecutors -- not a sure bet given the internal political crisis the long-awaited indictments provoked in Lebanon.

Would Nasrallah have acted alone? Unlikely.

Here is where the plot thickens.

Just after the indictments were handed down, the former head of the UN Tribunal Detlev Mehlis from Germany broke his silence and declared that Syria's embattled President Assad ordered and approved the plot, although Mehlis did not substantiate his assertion with any evidence. Why would a distinguished jurist with access to the investigation files make this assertion at the time the indictments were handed down against the actual perpetrators? Probably because he knows a lot more than we know about Assad's likely role.

Moreover, subsequent information that has leaked out since then reveals that Syrian Interior Minister General Ghazi Kana'an -- Assad's enforcer in Lebanon, mysteriously committed suicide in October, 2005 (probably with someone holding the gun to his head) because the UN Tribunal was onto the fact that Kana'an and Nasrallah conspired to execute Assad's orders.

Which gets to Syria's role in the conspiracy -- let alone the consequences to Lebanon of the dragnet closing in on Hezbollah.

By any corroborated account, Assad had real motive to get rid of Hariri. Hariri was a real thorn in Syria's side. Hariri not only had an independent power base and a lot of money, but was also close to the Saudis, who reviled Assad and his Shi'ia Alouite minority regime. According to several sources, Assad knew that the Saudis were funneling secret money and arms to Hariri's Lebanese Army to thwart Hezbollah's ascendancy and checkmate Iran's increasing meddling in Lebanon -- all of which were anathema to Assad.

Will there be further indictments by the UN implicating anyone inside Assad's close-knit cabal? Hard to tell? But surely the Obama administration must know more than it is letting on about the indictments and Syria's probable role in the plot itself given the link between Ghazi Kana'an, his untimely "suicide" and Hezbollah.

The potential role that Assad may have directly played in Hariri's assassination is obviously being overshadowed by the revolt against his regime now taking place throughout Syria. But it points to the true nature of the Assad regime.

When coupled together with Assad's murderous rampage against his own people it provokes even more head scratching over the dubious behavior behind the Obama administration's attitude toward Assad.

On July 1, for the umpteenth time Secretary of State Clinton looped around again a tiresome refrain that the Syrian government is "running out of time." And that she was "just hurt by recent reports of continuing violence. Really? How hurt? Over 1,800 Syrians have been murdered by the Assad regime since March according to independent human rights organizations.

This is a rare moment in Mrs. Clinton's otherwise commendable stewardship of America's foreign policy where her credibility is fast eroding since her position on Syria defies logic and reason. It has raised troublesome questions by many in the Middle East who cannot fathom what is driving her to stay soft on Assad. Yes, comparatively soft given the atrocities he has committed against his own people over 5 months. Yet, paradoxically, Mrs. Clinton has shown no reluctance whatsoever to pile on other Middle East dictators who don't even merit an international criminal court investigation.

For good measure, this past Sunday National Security Advisor Donilon stepped right out onto breaking ice in a failed attempt to differentiate President Obama's lightning speed call for Mubarak to go against the President's refusal to do the same against Assad.

No one in the Obama administration has offered a logical explanation for this tongue-twisting policy -- either on record or on background. Either it is genuinely fearful that should Assad go Syria with break out into Iraqi-style civil war (a view widely discredited by knowledgeable Syrian observers) or the Saudis have threatened the White House not to toss Assad under the bus for fear that Iran and Hezbollah will further benefit from the upheaval (hard to figure how that could happen). Or maybe there is some other possibly credible explanation that remains cloistered? If so, the White House needs to better explain itself.

If all crooked roads lead to Assad, what is the better policy than that being served up by the Obama administration?

First, if anyone inside the administration needed further proof, Assad cannot crush the protesters with brute force -- witness the peaceful demonstration in Hama over the weekend which brought out over 100,000 Syrians into the streets there. That means it's about time to toss out the door the administration's increasingly shopworn view that Assad will prevail through the point of a gun in the long run.

Second, it's time to choke off Syria's oil exports by which it is earning desperately needed foreign currency to finance its crackdown. Syria is a net oil exporter and the U.S. has simply not done enough to contain its exports by jawboning Syria's customers.

Third, perhaps there are other ways to deal with Assad rather than succumbing to possible Saudi dictats without tossing Assad under the bus. Today, Amnesty International declared that Assad is engaged in crimes against humanity and that he and his regime should be referred to the International Criminal Court for atrocities against its own people. The allegations set forth by Amnesty include the use of torture, murder, mass detentions, and the firing on families fleeing over the border into Turkey. Amnesty's report paints a gruesome portrait of the Assad regime's rampage against anyone remotely associated with the protest movement.

In the face of these substantiated facts, the United States cannot in good conscience keep to its "sanctions and, oh by the way you still have time to reform" Syrian policy. Amnesty's report has now called into sharp relief the administration's folly of "Assad-lite" wishful thinking. In the face encirclement by human rights monitors and the UN's Tribunal, it really has no viable alternative left but to get behind European efforts to hold Assad accountable for human rights violations, and worse.

Fourth, the White House should do much more than it has to date to publicly and more forcefully support the increasingly well-organized and well-intentioned Syrian political protest movement and its leadership that recently met in Damascus. The protest movement has constructed a well formulated reform "roadmap" that is quietly circulating among attendees which would slowly but surely ease Assad out of power via a peaceful transition. The meeting and the document is the best evidence to date that despite the violence throughout Syria there are courageous and credible opposition leaders who are easily identifiable and accessible to American officials -- unlike the early days of the Libyan revolt.

The Obama administration is having a hard time finding any more sand to place its head in when it comes to evolving events in Syria. It's time to reconcile policy and values -- something the president promised to do in his speech to the Arab people a few weeks ago.

 
Now that we know who "allegedly" did the actual killing of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, who then ordered the hit job? Was it Hezbollah -- the Iranian-backed terrorist organization's whose c...
Now that we know who "allegedly" did the actual killing of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, who then ordered the hit job? Was it Hezbollah -- the Iranian-backed terrorist organization's whose c...
 
 
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Aikaterina
A Greek-American living in California
12:27 PM on 07/08/2011
The Arab spring is domestic-internal; as it should be, between citizens and their governments.

The people decided to protest, demand the ouster of corrupt-ruthless dictators, and elect new leaders. They should decide their own destiny, settle discords between rival factions. We want leaderships who'll satisfy the special interests (corporate, political or Israeli), but as we've seen before, our intervention makes matters worse for the people, tarnishing our "credibility."

We're involved in Libya to protect BP's $900-billion investment, NOT for the people. We deposed Mozaddeq in Iran at BP's request, to keep their profits. We installed the Shah, trained, armed and supplied the dreaded Savak to suppress dissent, public-political opposition. We didn't object when the UK released al-Magheri (Pan-Am Lockerbie bomber), as part of the deal BP sought with Libya (leases, drilling rights).

We're involved in both Yemen and Somalia, ostensibly to eradicate al-Qaeda. We can not afford or should endure more military-political involvement in other countries. The people of those countries do not want us there, and should be allowed to deal with their own issues.

We need to focus on own pressing problems in the US: high unemployment, corporate malfeasance (which has created more devastation than Hamas, Hezbollah and al-Qaeda combined), crumbling-outdated infrastructure, dysfunctional-overpriced healthcare, "free" but unfair trade agreements, etc.
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wom122
Primum non nocere
06:37 PM on 07/07/2011
The only thing US intervention would do is add further complexity to the already explosive situation in Syria. Our "liberation" wrecked Iraq and our bombing is prolonging the civil war in Libya to give but 2 examples. If the Syrians want to get rid of their government that's their own business as they simply can follow the Egyptian or the Tunisian script. As it happens Assad has many supporters in Syria as well as many enemies hence the stalemate.
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Aikaterina
A Greek-American living in California
12:27 PM on 07/08/2011
Apparently, so does Qaddafi.
jhNY
Mercy.
03:08 PM on 07/07/2011
What is the Israeli government's position (official and unofficial) on Assad's continuing to hold power in Syria? Perhaps in the answer to that question one may also derive a bit more information as regards the motivations and wishes behind our State Department's utterances on the subject.
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Aikaterina
A Greek-American living in California
01:30 PM on 07/08/2011
Israel's intent is to eradicate any potential rivals, whom they deem "threats." Employing deceptive means (black, false-flag operations) they attack, blame others, using them as a justas pretexts, justifications to gain sympathy, spin public opinion for, and get "allies" to wage war on their behalf.

There's a long list:
King David Hotel bombing (1946) in Jerusalem targetting UK government personnel by the Irgun.
Bombings on Jewish communities in Iraq (1950) to instigate Iraqi Jews' emigration to Israel.
Operation Susanah (1954) bombing US & UK targets to start a war with Egypt.
The Lavon Affair (1954) bombings in Cairo & Alexandria to justify an IDF assault on Egypt.
The USS Liberty (1967) torpedoing a naval vessel in the Mediterranean, intending Egyptians to be blamed.
Black September bombings of airplanes (1970) in Jordan to get the country into a conflict with Palestinians.
Bombing a German nightclub (1986) framing Libya, prompting Reagan to bomb Libya in retaliation.
Attempted bombing of Mexican government (Parliament) building after 9/11 (2001).
The Mossad's motto is: "By way of deception thou shalt make war."

Israeli groups (AIPAC, ADL, lobbyists-journalists, and several US government officials on Israel's behalf) in the US have spied on our government, leaked classified information, in order to "spin" public opinion favoring an all-out assault on Iran.
jhNY
Mercy.
02:04 PM on 07/08/2011
Well, thanks I guess, for not answering my question, in the longest way possible, given the permitted word count. As for what you have listed, the attributions of cause and blame are not, in many cases, as you have them, widely accepted. Which doesn't make them untrue necessarily, but does not make them true either. Regardless, the list is not pertinent to the question.
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Robert McGehee
Your delusions are yours, mine are mine.
09:29 AM on 07/07/2011
Churchill was right: The United States has no permanent enemies or friends, only permanet interests. Syria is of no real interest to us, doesn't export enough oil to give them any importance. Our leaders felt it right and necessary to try to stop Quadify (SP?) from killing his own people, why not take the same stance in Syria?

I don't want to see us involved in more foriegn adventures, and I want us to get out of those we are currently invovled in. Shut it all down. We can't afford it (Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya). I would be much happier if we spent our resources here in our country.
12:58 PM on 07/07/2011
Yes America has permanent interests - almost exclusively short term. They are chasing terrorists all over the world, meanwhile - surprise it turns out the middle east wants democracy after all. The Obama administration was so behind on the Egyptian scene that the people in Tahir Square didn't even want to meet with Hillary Clinton. Now they are focused on Libya while ignoring/supporting suppression in Bahrain, Yemen and Saudi Arabia. It was just a few short years ago that one of their interests was fostering democracy in the middle east.

It may be better if the US had permanent principles instead of interests. Churchill presided over the demise of an empire, an interest-based one at that. The US should stop taking his advice.
06:49 PM on 07/07/2011
Robert you may want to be careful when using Churchill as an example. He presided over the demise of an interest-based empire. American 'interests' have led it into military excursions and shady deals all over the world. Maybe America should look into principal-based foreign policy?
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
den1953
The best politicians are for free!
09:27 AM on 07/07/2011
Sure Syria as long as the US Congress approves it then start some action, let the Republicans stick their own necks out on this one!
09:00 AM on 07/07/2011
Mr former Ambassador . . . there are many who say Mossad was responsible for the assassination of Prime Minister Rafik Hariri . . . .

I don't understand what you want Obama to do . . . .

about Syria . . . there isn't much the US can do . . .or the EU -- I think you should be speaking to Russia and China
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09:39 AM on 07/07/2011
Yes, there are many that blame the Mossad.
But the UN has never been pro-israel or pro-Mossad (at least not since the 70s), and so it becomes most LIKELY that Hezboallah was behind it.
If you disagree, it would require objective imipartial evidence.
11:10 AM on 07/07/2011
I don't understand your logic . . it seems based on some kind of venom against the UN . . .
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Aikaterina
A Greek-American living in California
01:37 PM on 07/08/2011
Who needs to be Pro-Israeli, Pro-Mossad, Pro-IDF, when we have US government officials, journalists, lobbyists all acting on behalf of Israel's interests (often to the detrement of our own)?

Mossad's motto: "By deception thou shalt wage war." Mossad and the Irgun have a long record of false-flag operations, intended to cast blame on their enemies (Palestinians, Libyans, Egyptians, etc.), using their own crimes as a justification for waging wars (on their own), to spin public opinion and sympathy for Israel, or to get the US involved in doing their dirty work for them.

Do the USS Liberty (1967), King David Hotel (1946), Lavon Affair (1954) sound familiar?
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yonatan c
12:39 PM on 07/07/2011
There are many who blame the Mossad for anything which happens in the world. Have you noticed throughout Arab history and recently the Arab Spring; Israel has been blamed for basically anything which they didn't agree with. Notice a pattern? again Jews as scapegoats.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Torus34
A poor old country mouse.
08:18 AM on 07/07/2011
In winkling out the criteria behind US foreign policy, one must look at several variables. Chief amongst these are the size of the country's military and its oil output. [Also of importance, but ignored here in the interest of clarity, is the willingness of a government to accede to US wishes or to purchase large quantities of US goods, most notably military weapons.]

Consider the following attenuated list:

Iran: Military: small. Oil: 4.2M bbl/d
Iraq: Military: small. Oil: 2.4M bbl/d
Libya: Military: small. Oil: 1.8M bbl/d
Syria: Military: small. Oil: 0.4M bbl/d
N. Korea. Military: large. Oil: 0.

Any questions?
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09:37 AM on 07/07/2011
Vietnam?
Somalia?
Yemen?
Afghanistan (I'm actually not sure if they have oil, I don't think so because no one has been talking about it)?
Pick and choose, pick and choose, and all of a sudden the statistics match! What a surprise.
11:37 AM on 07/07/2011
I believe the Afghanistan sits on huge earth resources other than oil.
12:55 PM on 07/07/2011
S. Korea?
Croatia?
Bosnia?
Pakistan?
Egypt?
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
vippy
Carpe Diem!
07:43 AM on 07/07/2011
I am thinking, looking at the whole picture in the ME, that our intel forces are busy creating havoc and sooner or later we will take over the ME and put our puppets in place. My take on this whole thing.
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09:39 AM on 07/07/2011
Your intel forces have been doing nothing, when was the last time they created any situation (other than Iraq, but than the army went in).
You want to take credit for Egypt?
For the Lybian rebels?
For the Lebanese assasination?
For the Shia uprisings?
What exactly have you been doing???
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
TheBurdicks
Whatever happened to my yellow bus?
07:30 AM on 07/07/2011
The situation in Syria, as in more of the Middle East and in the "Arab Spring", is far more complex than a biased Marc Ginsberg presents.
Hafez Assad dominated the Syrian rule and groomed his son, Basil, as his replacement. When Basil was killed in an auto accident (controversially) in 1994 Basher withdrew from British Ophthalmology training and returned, but never built a base among the Syrian power elite. His brother, Maher rose through the military ranks to become a threat.
When Hafez died in 2000, Basher succeeded him as President, in spite of military support for Maher. Basher immediately began cautious modernization in the "Damascus Spring".
Maher continues to exert influence over the military and may be excessively violent and unstable. A brother-in-law, General Shawkat, has clashed (violently?) with Maher, and has been ruthless in his control of intelligence services. Maher and Shawkat have been implicated in the Hariri assassination. In business, Rami Makhlouf has been an allegedly corrupt force. Each of these three, supported by numerous relatives and cronies, has frequently operated outside of control by Basher.
Basher Assad may not be behind violence against civilians, and arguably may be a part of the solution rather than the problem. Dennis Kucinich investigated this possibility in his recent visit, verified the complexity of the Syrian situation, and found support from Basher in directly moderating violence.
The U.S. should move cautiously and with restraint in its dealings with Basher Assad. The alternative could be far worse.
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Norma Ward
07:12 AM on 07/07/2011
Syria is among the least free nations in the world when measured in terms of both civil and political freedoms according to Freedom House, an American think-tank. Freedom House states that "...there is a growing chasm between the Islamic community and the rest of world. While most Western and non-western countries are moving towards greater levels of freedom, the Islamic world is lagging behind."

Here's the rest of what Freedom House had to say about freedom in the Middle East in comparison to the rest of the world:

http://viableopposition.blogspot.com/2011/02/defining-and-quantifying-freedom-in.html
12:32 PM on 07/07/2011
yes but syria right now is secular just like Iran was during the shah. What comes next could be much worst. The enemy you know is better than the enemy you don't know.
03:30 AM on 07/07/2011
Why is anyone advocating for another un-Constitutional War?

We already have on in Libya.

When does MIC stop?
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09:41 AM on 07/07/2011
A war is not unconstitutional unless it is unconsitutional (A=A)
Essentially, if Congress would agree on it than it beomes legitimate.
Other than Lybia, what other "unconstituional wars" are you talking about?
Maybe the paltry help Americans are giving Yemen I guess.
03:20 AM on 07/07/2011
Good article.  Finally someone with knowledge and experience in the region.  The rumors in Syria and among protestors claim Assad is a CIA agent or has a secret deal with the US.  Yes, these are absurd rumors.  However, by remaining soft and confused about Syria, the US will have zero influence after the removal of Assad.  Obama and his administration are heavily relying on the outdated textbook: "How to make enemies and and disappoint friends".
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02:53 AM on 07/07/2011
The usual BS, former ambassador. Do you really want to talk about plots thickening? Seems like the tenth anniversary of 9/11 is coming up. Could you survive a frank discussion about that one?

I think not.
08:54 AM on 07/07/2011
x2
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09:42 AM on 07/07/2011
Excuse me?
Why do Americans have truthers on one side and birthers on the other and than are SURPRISED that their country is going to the dogs?
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Boduognat
Lasciate ogne speranza, voi ch'entrate.
02:23 AM on 07/07/2011
Mr. Ginsberg,

As you know, Rafik Hariri is not the only politician who saw had life abruptly ended ny a hit team.

Would you also be so courageous as to call for a complete inquiry into the death of that other Lebanese politician, from the Waad Party?

You may have heard of him, his name is Elie Hobeika, and he was assassinated by means of a car bomb in 2002.
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charlietuna11
02:13 AM on 07/07/2011
all one needs to do is to remember churchills chilling observation. AMERICA HAS NO PERMANENT FRIENDS OR ENEMIES, JUST PERMANENT INTERESTS.