The Dear Leader's Used Rug

I've been in China this week after addressing a forum at Beijing University on the new Obama administration's foreign policy. During my visit, North Korea's Supreme People's Assembly, or parliament saw fit to unanimously elect "Dear Leader" Kim Jong-il to a third five year term as head of the country's National Defense Commission (the top post in North Korea). I also traveled to Dalian, China's port of entry to Beijing and major maritime trading route for exports to North Korea's capital of Pyongyang which lies just about 75 miles across the Yellow Sea. In Beijing and in Dalian I spent some time with Chinese officials to discuss Sino-North Korean relations and the future of Kim's spasm-prone regime, and was encouraged with Chinese growing impatience with Dear Leader Kim's antics.

Kim -- ever the caricature of himself, listlessly accepted his anointment late last week on state-controlled television during an appearance before the Assembly -- his first major appearance since his 2008 stroke. To say he looked like he was at death's door is an understatement. Thin, gaunt, and limping, Kim did not utter a single word to express gratitude to his long-suffering people for their vote of confidence in his leadership. However, the streets of Pyongyang were filled by thousands of citizens who were mobilized to celebrate North Korea's coinciding national day.

In the wake of UN approbation of its recent missile launch, North Korea ominously announced in recent days its intention to kick out UN and US nuclear inspectors and restart its nuclear program -- a program that it had agreed to suspend during six-party talks with the U.S., China, Russia, Japan, and South Korea last year. And we thought that would put an end to Kim's blackmail...until now.

The ploy effectively resets the clock on North Korea's nuclear program -- UN/IAEA seals apparently are coming off its Yongbyang nuclear reactor, and Kim undoubtedly intends to use the same ploy with the Obama administration he had used with its predecessors -- a tortuously negotiated suspension of its nuclear program in exchange for even more ransom in the guise of greater amounts of economic assistance.

That North Korean rug has surely been put to good use by Kim.

Chinese officials expressed to me a growing sense of frustration and impatience with Kim, and concern that a dangerous power struggle is brewing beneath the surface because Kim has never designated any of his three sons as a likely successor. A violent grab for power among Kim's inner circle in a country as trigger-happy as North Korea has important ramifications for global security, to say the least.

Those same expressions of Chinese impatience with Kim that I heard have apparently become official government policy as they have found their way into official Chinese government media. A leading provincial newspaper in Shanghai -- China's largest city -- called on Kim to cease international provocations and politely suggested that it was time for China to reign in the regime and force it to live up to its six-party agreement to suspend its nuclear program. Pyongyang carefully monitors Chinese media, and surely North Korea's leadership must be troubled by the sanctioned official Chinese criticism.

Should Kim kick the bucket soon as some observers believe is very possible given the stroke, Chinese authorities told me they fear an influx of refugees from North Korea and, more ominously, a diversionary surprise military provocation by North Korean armed forces against South Korea to "galvanize the people" (more like deflect attention away from the regime's shortcomings), and force the United States to deal directly with the regime to avoid hostilities on the Korean peninsula.

Ironically, the Obama administration, with Chinese approval, offered Pyongyang before its most recent missile launch an olive branch -- normalization of relations, a formal peace treaty to end the Korean War and additional economic aid. An olive branch that Kim apparently considered unworthy from us Running Dogs.

According to Chinese officials, Kim is throwing a tantrum that President Obama is not according him the same attention Washington is according Iran's atomic ayatollahs. So should one conclude that without a personal televised message from President Obama congratulating Kim on his reelection we are doomed to another period of tension on the Korean peninsula and another visit to the rug market? Not necessarily.

The Chinese made clear to me that despite the renewed instability and threats from Pyongyang...and President Obama's highly critical statement against the missile launch, the Obama administration should desist from re-entering Kim's rug market, and that the better policy is for Kim to conclude he cannot reset the clock on his nuclear program's suspension given China's not-so-veiled criticism.

The question remains what will China further do behind the scenes to prevent Kim or his military from acting even more impetuously than it already seems prepared to do? As North Korea's most important ally and trading partner, China has enormous leverage over Pyongyang and obviously we all hope Beijing will make clear to Kim that it could turn its economic screws on his regime if he actually begins to restart his nuclear program.

Fortunately, Chinese authorities appear inclined to work closely with Washington to keep "reasonable" diplomatic pressure on Kim's regime and prevent him from dividing the five nation alliance against his nuclear program -- so long as Kim remains alive.

However, Kim's death would take North Korea and the entire Korean peninsula into dangerously unchartered territory.

The Chinese with whom I spoke are uncertain where Kim's death would take North Korea and China's relationship with any new regime to emerge following his departure from the scene. All the more reason for China and the U.S. to coordinate as closely as possible in order to contain the fallout, so to speak from either the resumption of North Korea's nuclear program or a violent transition in Pyongyang that could destabilize the region.

As a former member of the maligned "Axis of Evil," North Korea's nuclear program and the nation's uncertain future is yet another major foreign policy quagmire waiting in the wings for an Obama Administration not eager to enter Kim's rug market.

Comments

[jackpinesavage]

Wait, wait, wait. There should be some examples to back up the claim that N. Korea is "trigger happy". If the Ambassador is basing that statement on two rocket launches over the last 7 years he's way off base. (And never mind the irony of an American ambassador calling another nation trigger-ha­ppy.)

Also, i'd like to see some evidence to support the claim that the Obama administration offered to sign a peace treaty, normalize relations, etc. I highly doubt that it actually happened, simply because a peace treaty would remove the reason for having such a large military presence on the Korean peninsula. Furthermore, unless those troops were going to be removed, Kim wouldn't agree to a treaty. (And it's hard to blame the crazy-evil­-monkey-bo­y for that.)

[TJCole]

North Korea is not a country, it's a Cult , so proceed from that perspectiv­e...what happens when a Cult leader dies if he doesn't take most of them with him, they find a new leader or they just waste away....

It would be a shame if this administration gives them anything that will help sustain this abomination of North Korea...an­d Kim Jung Il...

[yappnmutt]

the chinese message is clear. they are telling the usa to protect iran from its enemies and nk will be contained. the public face is lip service.

[vinny]

This is INACCURATE. It is widely known that the political/military leadership would never accept one of Kim Jong Il's sons as the next head of state.

And look at what the ambassador is doing. He is trusting China to tell him the lay of the land.

[petphotos]

Sorry, but my money is with the Ambassador.

[mergina]

Is there any doubt in your minds that humanity is going to destroy itself in the not too distant future?

[pourquoi]

Yes, there are doubts in my mind about that.

[dmyron]

Current events do not beg the question of whether it(humanity) will survive...­..the appropriate question is whether it deserves to survive in its so-called "evolved" state.....­.i am beginning to question the wisdom of allowing the "survival trait" to overpower the kinder, gentler instincts we have managed to
evolve along with it. Maybe "survival " was a top priority eons ago, but now?