Yes, Obama is still Commander in Chief, and yes, the U.S. remains the world's sole superpower, but while foreign policy played nary a role in the midterm elections, the foreign policy fallout from the election drubbing is unavoidable. Every foreign journalist, every adversary, and every ally will be reading the tea leaves to make their own assessment how badly Obama was damaged by his party's loss of political and popular support, and either take it in stride, or dangerously miscalculate. Clearly, it's the latter problem that can have adverse consequences.
Any Congress, particularly a hostile Congress, has the power to give any sitting president a major national security migraine and the incoming House GOP leadership has proven their determination to confront the Obama Administration's foreign policies.
The good news for the home team is that we have seen this movie before. President's losing control of either or both houses of Congress is nothing new.
What is new, however, is that it didn't happen when the U.S. faced so many global security challenges at one time. What with two wars, a lethal terror threat, a resurgent China, a nuclear wannabe state sponsor of terror (aka Iran), and, most importantly, the incalculable conclusion by many foreign observers that the U.S. was already constrained by recession, battle fatigue and an impaired capacity to influence global events. America's allies abroad will be particularly nervous because a politically weaker American president may very well translate into more tepid American global leadership.
So what does this new post mid-term Election Day mean for America's national security? Here it is in a nutshell....
Afghanistan: Ironically, President Karzai may mistakenly conclude that the surging Republicans will inoculate him from U.S. pressure to clean up his act. Karzai should realize that Republicans find him as distasteful as do Democrats. Yet, in one of the few areas of bipartisan agreement, the House Republican leadership and the White House largely see eye to eye on Afghanistan, and Obama will be facing less pressure from the House GOP than he would have faced from the House Dems to accelerate a withdrawal timetable. Although the public's patience with the war is wearing thin, Obama's wiggle room may evaporate if Republicans believe the White House is strategically undermining Gen. Petreaus' surge strategy. In fact, Obama's biggest headache is going to come from Senators McCain and Graham if they believe the White House is withholding vital military support from their favorite general. There will also be far more push by GOP members to toughen our stance with Pakistan and to accelerate U.S. special forces and drone attacks on targets inside Pakistan -- something which will cause further friction with Pakistan's shaky leadership.
Iran: Ahmadinejad and the Supreme Leader will grossly miscalculate that their nemesis Obama was badly wounded from the election results. They will assume that Obama will not have the domestic political support to militarily confront Iran and sustain American sanctions. They are very, very wrong.
True, Republicans consider Obama's Iran engagement policy both politically naïve and having yielded nothing but more time for the regime to clamp down on a demoralized democratic opposition and accelerate its nuclear enrichment program. But Republicans strong support a full court press against Iran, yet believe Obama lacks the willpower to confront Iran. They intend to force some anti-ayatollah backbone on him. The danger to the White House is that unless it establishes a coherent approach to Iran Republicans may compel him to go in directions his Administration may not want to go. But Obama cannot escape his own self-imposed deadline on engaging Iran and the Republicans will hold him to it The next six months will set the end game for confronting Iran's nuclear aspirations. In another area of potential bipartisan accommodation, persistent, ongoing consultations with Republicans to jointly develop that end game strategy can yield a lot of domestic and international dividends for Obama.
China: There is no one on the Republican side that has figured out how to deal with China any better than the Obama Administration. Between China's refusal to unshackle its overheated currency and its expansionism throughout the Pacific, talking tougher to China is an unsustainable policy, however inclined may be the GOP. From China's perspective, Obama's political defeat is not particularly great news. Republicans have historically been far more supportive of Taiwan, and eager to confront North Korea's nuclear missile programs and its constant provocations against South Korea. That is not going to make it easier to deal with China.
Middle East: Republicans (and many Democrats) have been livid with Obama for publicly chastising Israel on its West Bank settlement policy and Obama's perceived indifference to Israel's regional security challenges. The House GOP leadership, particularly GOP House Whip Eric Cantor, and incoming House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Ileana Ros-Lehiten have served notice on the White House that they intend to carve out foreign aid to Israel and begin withholding foreign aid to countries that are not supporting U.S. goals in the Middle East, including the Palestinian Authority Obama is going to have to assuage these concerns if he is going to protect his Administration's foreign aid programs. Moreover, a GOP gain is going to be interpreted by Israeli PM Netanyahu as a reaffirmation of Congressional support for his government's approach to negotiations with the Palestinians. This is no time to feel one's way in the Middle East without domestic political support. Message to the White House: with Rahm finally gone it's time to begin investing in the optics and substance of the U.S. - Israel bilateral relationship before being forced to do so at a steep political price with potential adverse foreign policy consequences.
Russia: The Russians were already annoyed with Obama that he negotiated a new START nuclear weapons reduction treaty, but lacked the political muscle to push it through the Senate. Senate GOP leaders, notably Sen. John Kyl of Arizona, are demanding concessions, and may soon be in an even more formidable position to force a showdown vote on the Treaty that will not go the President's way. It's hard to tell what would be worse, a languishing treaty or a treaty that was voted down. Moreover, Sen. John McCain will emerge as the de facto GOP national security spokesman, and he has already called for drumming Russia out of the G-8 group of nations. The danger to the U.S. is that the de facto Russian leader Vladimir Putin will construe a weakened Obama as a potential pushover on issues of strategic concern to the U.S., such as Iran, Georgia, and NATO's willpower to act on Russia's western flank. Putin needs some firm reminders that Obama is his best line of defense against a more confrontational Congress.
Foreign Assistance: Between a newly empowered GOP House and an estranged Senate GOP leadership, the Obama Administration's foreign aid program faces a very bleak future. Not only is there an attraction to cut foreign aid to show the American people that the GOP is cutting the deficit, cutting foreign aid selectively will wreak havoc on America's global engagement with international institutions, including the United Nations. The incoming House chair of the appropriations subcommittee that controls the foreign operations budget (Kay Granger (R.TX) is no friend to international organizations and foreign assistance programs. Moreover, the Senate GOP has yet to select the incoming class of foreign aid subcommittee members...none of whom owe any allegiance to any of the Obama Administration's foreign aid programs, which is sitting fairly naked without a FY 2011 budget resolution to set its parameters.
The Obama Administration is going to have to regroup and rewire itself to deal with the new foreign and domestic realities it now faces. The worse thing that the president can do is to listen to anyone who solicitously whispers in his ear that he can maintain his current bearings without some mid-course political and foreign policy accommodations to the new Congress. Better to chart that course than have his political adversaries chart it for him.
J Street countered that over 2/3 of the candidates they backed won, 66% of Jews supported Democratic candidates and that just 7% of Jews considered “Israel decisive in how they vote.” Jewish voters placed Israel eighth on their list, behind the economy, health care and the deficit, similar to the ranking of non-Jewish voters.
On the other hand, Morton Klein, President of The Zionist Organization of America (ZOA), had a different view: ” The American public has been unnerved by …Obama bowing before foreign despots... lots of carrots but no sticks to Iran; wasting of two years before allowing largely ineffective anti-Iran sanctions to pass; the humiliation of repeatedly apologizing abroad for U.S. actions;...his support for civilian...tribunals to deal with foreign terrorists; and, last but not least, his policy towards Israel.”
Is Mort’s (no longer) repressed anti-Obama animus the correct view?
Polling data suggests that foreign policy issues, including Israel, were low on all voters’ lists. Jews still voted Democratic in overwhelming numbers. The Tea Party-backed candidates did not fair as well as Republican candidates as a whole. And, based on all the data, it is illogical to conclude that J Street PAC money hurt the candidates that it supported.
Don’t be surprised if in two years we once again mimic history and swing more Democratic.
(More on this is at "bumpspot.com"
Kyrgyzstan conflict
Right after the uprising, on Wednesday, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir ... in a tug-of-war between the two rival superpowers, namely a weakened Russia with
Sunday's Zaman by Dogu Ergil April 17, 2010 ERGIL
http://www.sundayszaman.com/sunday/yazarDetay.do?haberno=207039
The Dangers of Nuclear Disarmament
By Sergei Karaganov May 4, 2010
Saint Petersburg Times
http://www.times.spb.ru/index.php?action_id=2&story_id=31370
PM's visit underlines rising Indian interest in Ibsa, Bric
Business Standard News; Jyoti Malhotra / New Delhi April 16, 2010
http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/pm%5Cs-visit-underlines-rising-indian-interest-in-ibsa-bric/392092/
Snap Analysis: U.S. and Russia seek boosts from arms pact
Reuters by Paul Taylor; April 8, 2010
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6371ZQ20100408
A Superpower Is Reborn
The New York Times: August 24, 2008
http://georgiandaily.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=6527&Itemid=68&lang=ka
Czech press survey
Russia showed by the Georgian war that it can be a superpower, while the European Union showed during the war that it is not able to be a superpower
September 1, 2008
http://www.ceskenoviny.cz/news/index_view.php?id=331160
Venezuela's Hugo Chavez recognizes independence of breakaway Georgia republics, Russia is a Superpower”
Los Angeles Times by September 11, 2009 editor Megan K. Stack
http://articles.latimes.com/2009/sep/11/world/fg-russia-chavez11
Guam Back to Life?
RIA Novostiby Bogdan Tsirdya
August 3, 2010
http://en.rian.ru/international_affairs/20100830/160392437.html
NPR Interviews President Ilves about Russian Bullying and US Accent
Estonia Public Broadcasting ERR News - Sept 24, 2010
http://news.err.ee/politics/49b1921d-afe9-43e5-b740-4df6dc76c9f2
Armenian base part of Russia's quest for 'superpower' status
News.Az By Leyla Tagiyeva
August 30, 2010
http://www.news.az/articles/21890
Syria asks Russia to lean on Israel
Asia Times Online By Sami Moubayed
May 14, 2010
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/LE14Ak03.html
Boost for nonproliferation
The Japan Times April 10, 2010
http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/ed20100417a1.html
Perspective of Karabakh conflict settlement unreal in current conditions
News 1 - June 2010
http://www.news.az/articles/17773
The dangers of nuclear disarmament
TODAY’S ZAMAN News by Sergei KaraganovMay 1, 2010
http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/news-208967-104-opinion-the-dangers-of-nuclear-disarmament.html
Sergei Karaganov: Weapons that save us from ourselves
Scotsman News: 05 May 2010
http://news.scotsman.com/world/Sergei-Karaganov-Weapons-that-save.6272226.jp
Obama restricts America’s use of nuclear arms
April 6, 12:45 PM San Diego Conservative Examiner by Robert Rische
Senator John Kerry declares Russia as a World Superpower
http://www.examiner.com/x-36784-San-Diego-Conservative-Examiner~y2010m4d6-Obama-restricts-Americas-use-of-nuclear-arms
Russian hint to Israel
Op-ed: Ignoring, disrespecting Russia prompts Moscow to sell arms to our enemies
Y Net News By Giora Eiland – Sept 23, 2010
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3958687,00.html
Why isn't anyone taking Kyrgyzstan's calls?
Foreign Policy By Steve LeVine Friday, June 18, 2010
http://oilandglory.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/06/18/why_isnt_anyone_taking_kyrgyzstans_calls
1945 Elbe link-up shining solidarity beacon – Medvedev, Obama
Voice of Russia, April 25, 2010
http://english.ruvr.ru/2010/04/25/6885487.html
Violent Unrest in Kyrgyzstan, The Fergana Valley Powder Keg
Qantara News by Edda Schlager June 18, 2010
http://www.qantara.de/webcom/show_article.php/_c-476/_nr-1345/i.html
Georgia: An Insecure Foothold for the United States
The Globalist - Martin Sieff June 02, 2010
http://www.theglobalist.com/StoryId.aspx?StoryId=8498
Will Russia Be the Superpower That Will Stop Iran from Going Nuclear?
By: A. Savyon
The Middle East Media Research Institute
July 29, 2010
http://www.memri.org/report/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/4487.htm
The Dangers of Nuclear Disarmament
Project-Syndicate News – April 29, 2010
http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/karaganov14/English
Azerbaijanis, Armenians can be good neighbors (Superpower Neighbor Russia)
News Az Tue 02 March 2010
http://www.news.az/articles/10482
Russia’s mission is Eurasian integration
RIA Novosti
Aug 8, 2010
http://en.rian.ru/valdai_op/20100831/160405118.html
The facts:
Netanyahu calls Russia an important Superpower
Voice of America News editor by Robert Berger Feb. 15, 2010
http://www1.voanews.com/english/news/europe/Netanyahu-Heads-to-Russia-with-Call-for-Crippling-Sanctions-on-Iran-84341537.html
Russia, the Best of the BRICs
AG Metal Miner New - Sept 19, 2010
by Stuart Burns
http://agmetalminer.com/2010/09/29/russia-the-best-of-the-brics/comment-page-1/#comment-22796
Transcript: Russia a Superpower in every Aspect
Premier.gov.ru - Feb. 16, 2010
http://premier.gov.ru/eng/events/news/9424/
"Netanyahu: Russia is an important "superpower"
ISRIA.com; Feb. 16, 2010
http://img237.imageshack.us/img237/861/primeministerputinneten.jpg
Whither Russia
Canada Free Press By INSS Zvi Magen - October 4, 2010
http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/28361
Russia is a superpower in every sense of the word – Netanyahu
Russia Today News, Feb 16, 2010
http://freevideo.rt.com/video/1759
Ten out of ten for Medvedev visit’
Cyprus-Mail by Jacqueline Agathocleous, Oct 9, 2010
http://www.cyprus-mail.com/cyprus/ten-out-ten-medvedev-visit/20101009
Spaceport of the 21st century to be built in Russian Far East
The Voice of Russia by Anna Forostenko - Oct 4, 2010
http://english.ruvr.ru/2010/10/04/23975998.html
Russian Defense Minister visits United States: Resetting in progress
REUTERS by Larry Downing August 17, 2010
http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20100917/160629545.html
Russia is a Superpower; it is a state with a leading position in the international system which has the ability to influence events globally and its own interests by projecting its power on a worldwide scale to protect those interests.
Russia for fills the criteria of a superpower for its resources measured by its four axes of power: massive military, economic power, political power, and cultural (and the ability to use soft and hard power).Russia has as a massive political community that occupies a continental-sized landmass, has a sizable population (relative at least to other major powers); a super ordinate economic capacity, including ample indigenous supplies of food and natural resources; has a high degree of non-dependence on an international intercourse; and, most importantly has a well-developed nuclear capacity (in fact the worlds largest).
Russia is able to conduct a global strategy as a superpower including of having the ability to destroy the world (in fact more than the United States can); can command vast economic potential and world influence; and to present a universal ideology as Russia can project its power, soft and hard, globally on a world wide scale.
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Really, Mr. Ginsberg? A superpower? And a SOLE superpower,no less! Which planet have you been residing on lately?
Superpower with $2 trillion in trade- and $1 trillion in budget deficit? Superpower which constantly has to beg, steal and/or borrow money from its worst enemy? A superpower that has an (official) level of 10% unemployment (in reality, probably close to 20%) and an inflation of god-knows-what (since official inflation figures are the nation's best-kept secret)?. A superpower that is neck-deep in the quagmire of two bloody, imperialist wars it can't seem to extract itself from? A superpower whose kids regularly sick, cold and undernourished? A superpower that constantly has to make moral compromises with a corrupt 2-bit dictator (Karzai) in order to keep its bases in Central Asia? A superpower that lacks technology to plug in a hole at the bottom of the ocean but is brave enough to kill Afghanis and Pakistanis via remotely operated death drones? A superpower that only produces weapons of mass destruction but imports EVERYTHING (toilet paper included) from China? A superpower with a Grand Canyon-sized potholes on its streets, highways and sidewalks, plus crumbling 18th century infrastructure?
Perhaps, Mr. Ginsberg, we are still a sole superpower viewed from Brooklyn Heights, Wall Street or Upper East Side. Viewed from the heartland, we are more like the new Rwanda.
You are wrong Mr. Ambassador, things will change. Either big money and Israel let their grip on Americas to relax and opt for reforms or we will have a revolt.
One more thing the same people who are responsible for failed foreign policy are also responsible for US economic melt down and current congress have rewarded them handsomely and punished the victims of their risk taking instead.
Rule of few over many cannot last for ever, even if you have the best politician liars, best media propaganda and all the money you want to print.
Why should the US do that? Iran is not a threat to US. Israel is simply a war mongering state that is itching for a war between the US and Iran.
It is all part of a wider Israeli propaganda campaign, with the famous lie "wiped off the map."
http://www.campaigniran.org/casmii/index.php?q=node/10828
LOL
"September 18, 2001: Ordinary Iranians hold candles during a vigil in Terhan to mourn the loss of life in the United States after hijackers crashed airliners into the World Trade Center in New York and the Pentagon in Washington DC. Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei condemned the attacks which have been blamed on Saudi-born Osama bin Laden. Bin Laden is believed to be in hiding in the mountains of neighboring Afghanistan, a country which Iran has no love for.. "
http://www.time.com/time/europe/photoessays/vigil/
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/09/01/AR2006090100511.html
"Although their leaders still call America the "Great Satan," ordinary Iranians' affection for the United States seems to be thriving these days, at least in the bustling capital. This rekindled regard is evident in people's conversations, their insatiable demand for U.S. products and culture, and their fascination with the U.S. presidential campaign. "
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/dn/opinion/points/stories/DN-movaeni_29edi.ART.State.Edition1.4da04bb.html
http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/0119/p09s02-coop.html
Al least finally someone recognizing that Rahm Emanuel was AlPAC's pal in the White House. No one dared to say the truth in US mainstream media.