New Consensus: Pakistan Is the Hot Spot

What a difference a few weeks--and a few new reports--make in assigning priorities to protect the world from WMDs. Until a few weeks ago, a report by four leading statesmen--Henry Kissinger, Charles Schultz, Sam Nunn, and William Perry--was all the rage. They argued that the place to start making the world safe from nukes was Russia and the United States. If these two superpowers would move toward zero stockpiles, the other nuclear states would follow. When we argued ("Wrong Priority") that the nuclear hot spots are failing states (especially Pakistan) and rogue states (especially Iran), we got little traction.

But this was a few weeks ago. Now we are pleased to report the conclusions of the Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism. It states:

"Were one to map terrorism and weapons of mass destruction today, all roads would intersect in Pakistan." And "Pakistan is an ally, but there is a grave danger it could also be an unwitting source of a terrorist attack on the United States -- possibly with weapons of mass destruction."

Most importantly, we find in the Nuclear Threat Initiative's report, Securing the Bomb 2008, that:

Pakistani security systems face immense threats, from nuclear insiders, some of whom have a demonstrated willingness to sell practically anything to practically anybody, to armed attack, potentially by scores or hundreds of jihadis. In at least two cases, serving Pakistani military officers working with al-Qaeda came within a hair's breadth of assassinating former president Musharraf. If the military officers guarding the President cannot be trusted, how much confidence can the world have in the military officers guarding the nuclear weapons?

[N]uclear stockpiles in Pakistan face immense threats, both from nuclear insiders (some of whom have strong jihadi sympathies and a demonstrated willingness to sell nuclear weapons technology) and from outsider attack. Pakistan is now al-Qaeda's world headquarters, and that in itself makes it a frightening location for nuclear weapons and weapons-usable materials.

One Pakistani nuclear expert estimated that some 10 percent of Pakistan's nuclear scientists were sympathetic to violent Islamic extremists. Serving Pakistani military officers have cooperated with al-Qaeda in at least two assassination attempts on former president Musharraf--raising the possibility that military officers guarding nuclear weapons might do the same.

Finally, we read in Foreign Policy magazine's 2008 Terrorism Index, a poll of top US foreign policy experts, that

"For a majority of the experts...instability is making Pakistan a country fraught with risk. A large majority, 69 percent, of the experts considers Pakistan the country most likely to transfer nuclear technology to terrorists."

If these reports do not convince the new foreign policy crew that Pakistan deserves first priority in the drive to prevent terrorists from getting their hands on WMDs, nothing will.

Amitai Etzioni is Professor of International Relations at The George Washington University and author of Security First (Yale, 2007) www.securityfirstbook.com email: [e-mail]

Comments

[noam4prez]

Since our pet dictator Musharraf has been ousted from power, Pakistan has gone from stalwart ally in the GWOT, to the next target in the GWOT.

[moAb]

Are we surprised? Pakistan is a failed state and has been for quite some time. The Pakistani government has never actually had any real control of significant portions of the country/population.
Some describe Pakistan today as more of an Army rather than a government. As a traditional army it is fairlyl ineffectual when dealing with asymmetric/guerilla warfare as practiced by the Sunni radicals in the region. As Sunni radicals continue to gain ascendancy it is just a matter of time before they, likely with sympathizers in ISI, will heist one or more nukes.

[arvay]

The very best outcome would be to have "terrorists" transfer a few Pakistani nuclear-tipped missiles to Iran. That would and all the nonsense about an attack, and would create checkmate against Israel's nuclear bombs.

[SeanONe]

Pakistan is protected by China so absolutely nothing is gong to happen there.

[rasit]

The current situation in Pakistan has been created by its own govt. by initiating/training/funding organizations like Lashkar to fight the proxy wars in Kashmir, against India, and now they are going rogue. Pakistan, in spite of receiving $10 billion from the US to fight terrorism, by then President Musharaff doesn't seem to have accomplished much in controlling the influence of Taliban or the militants in the tribal areas, as illustrated by the Taliban actions against schools for girls, and its dictates about girl's education, and their social behavior...

Now, with the behavior exhibited by Pakistan towards India, in the matter of the Mumbai terror attack, it is becoming very obvious that the Pakistani govt. doesn't want to or is not in a position to fight these elements, which not only threaten Pakistan's safety and tranquility, but also the countries in the region.
Unless Pakistan is forthcoming In the matter of sale of Nuclear missile/bomb technology, it will be a concern to the entire world...

As long as Pakistan in denial mode, and does not act against terrorist groups effectively, the threat level for the region and the world, especially, the west will be very high...

[Alethia]

Pakistan is the hotspot because it sounds like you want Pakistan to be the hotspot.

The public is no longer as dumb as you think we are. We already have been immunized against demonizing countries such as the "wonderful" experience we have all been treated to these past few years by the invasion of Iraq on trumped-up charges.

[Strategy]

Truth is bitter and sometimes very hard to accept!! Denial has been a consistent official policy of P@kistan (and its sympathizers) . What better example than denial and subsequent admittance of Mumbai's captured gunman's nationality.
Iraq never had WMDs or Jih@dis (at least at the time of invasion) . P@kistan has WMDs as well as Jih@dis.

[1stTsar]

pakistan does not have oil (thank God), if it did it would have been Iraq'd

[ReasonIsMyReligion]

It's been Pakistan for a long time.

Nice of some pros to notice.

Sheesh.