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Amitai Etzioni

Amitai Etzioni

Posted: July 6, 2010 11:46 AM

Return of the Hooverites

What's Your Reaction:

The Republicans are willing to put the brakes on now despite the fact that the economy has not gained enough lift to take off. Indeed, their deficit-mongering is already causing a drag, which is slowing down the economy, and may well make it crash again. It is precisely the policy that Hoover notoriously embraced.

More surprising is that many Democrats do not dare point out the ill effects of this GOP maneuver. Privately they acknowledge that more stimulus is now needed and that deficits will become a problem only later, but they claim this sounds like "political double speak." For that reason they, too, tend to at least make Hooverite noises.

However, when I asked a bunch of primary school kids if they understood that the need for heating in the winter does not deny the need for air conditioning in the summer, sure to follow, they had no difficulties in coping with such a 'complex' thought.

Neither did Ben Bernanke, who testified before a House committee early in June this year that, in the succinct words of The Wall Street Journal, "if Congress pursued more fiscal stimulus to sustain the recovery, it should be accompanied by a concrete plan to bring the deficit back into line in the long run. But he [Bernanke] indicated the economy is too fragile to begin reducing the gap now."

Moreover, only a very untutored reading of public opinion polls will lead one to conclude that the public favors deficit reduction now. Thus, asked if they are concerned about the federal debt, a large majority expressed concern -- but only because this is a so-called "no costs" question. It is like asking if you like to have a free dinner. Much more revealing is that when Americans were asked what they would rather spend money on -- cutting the deficit or creating jobs -- more people favored jobs over deficit reduction (by 50 percent to 42%). Another poll shows only 30 percent willing to make cuts in government spending on health care or education to reduce the deficit, versus 62 percent who are opposed! More are willing to cut the military budget, but not as many as those who would rather not reduce the deficit.

President Truman once remarked that if you run a Republican (meaning a Democrat who acts like a Republican) against a Republican, a Republican will win every time. The same holds here. If Democrats try to compete as to who is the holier deficit cutter, expect the Republicans to win. This is not merely bad news for the Democrats, but for the country. The economy now needs more lift, not more drag.

* * *
The very framing of the debate whether now is the time to focus on generating jobs or reducing deficits plays into the hands of the deficit hawks. Deficits supposedly are going to devastate us all, including our children and grandchildren. Jobs are missing for a minority. Dedicating funds to "them" is a form of transfer payment. This wording makes one lose sight of the fact that when more people work, we all benefit. Let's hence put it in terms of what we do now need - more or less business?

 

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08:13 AM on 08/10/2010
We have structural problems with our economy, and I am unsure as to whether either more stimulus or less is going to be effective. Despite the cheer-leading from the Administration, and the Pollyanna attitude of the so-called financial experts, the US economy is not only not recovering as fast as those of the emerging nations, but is also not recovering as fast as the EU.
Thanks largely to the attempts by Wall Street to suppress the EU economies and to destroy the Euro, the countries of the Euro zone have enacted tough austerity measures that are already starting to pay off. The Euro is back over $1.30 in case you have not noticed, and Germany's exports grew more than 4% in June (Imports also grew).
We need to focus on things that help us produce value and increase the standard of living of all our citizens. We need to fix Social Security, cut defense spending, and invest in our own infrastructure. We can stimulate job growth by enacting an environmentally responsible and sustainable energy policy. There are plenty of opportunities. Will someone kindly step up and LEAD?
04:23 PM on 07/07/2010
The president in keeping with his blue dog view of government has just appointed a deficit commission composed almost entirely of deficit hawks so we can look forward to more attacks on the poor and the middle class and billions more in subsidies to the richest corporations in America.
09:21 AM on 07/07/2010
The American Society of Civil Engineers gave the U.S. infrastructure a D rating. ASCE recommends investing $2.2 trillion investment over five years. In my home state of Pa. alone, 50% of all bridges are deemed structurally deficient or functionally obsolete. So why isn't this issue being discussed ( better yet, screamed about) every day in DC?
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amyen
08:39 AM on 07/07/2010
Yes thank you for this article. I'm tired of people saying we need to cut spending like Europe is. Many EU countries have strong regulations and strong welfare states that blunted the impact of the recession, leaving them the 'luxury' of considering deficit reduction. The US and its wild west lending practices, coupled with a threadbare safety net, have made the recession much much worse here. We have no room to make the kinds of cuts the EU can (except if we cut the military). Also, the EU is spooked by Greece. But the US is not Greece. On the contrary treasury yields are low because investors are flooding that market out of fear. Higher interest rates will come perhaps in the future, but for now, inflation is a distant possibility. On the contrary if people don't have money to spend in an economy that is 2/3 consumption, we're looking at deflation if the government doesn't do something. Or, at the very least, a prolonged period of very slow recovery. Conclusion: Deficit reduction is not an option in the US right now.
08:20 AM on 08/10/2010
The EU was spooked by Greece because of the meddling by Wall Street. The economy of Greece is about the same as that of the German state of Meklenburg-Vorpommern. Never heard of it? For good reason, M-V ranks close to the bottom of the 14 German Bundesländer in terms of GDP.

Maybe instead of criticizing the social support system in Europe, we should learn from it. I know, I know, it wasn't invented here; we cannot possibly accept any ideas coming from outside sources. That would be, well, un-American.
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Imo Verit
07:50 AM on 07/07/2010
How about a little stimulus down here in Hooverville?
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John Ison
Marketing and Merchandising Expert
07:05 AM on 07/07/2010
it's a fact - we're not out of the woods yet concerning this severe recession - the first stimulus helped but simply wasn't enough and I doubt it ever could have been given the GOP obstruction and fixation on tax cuts rather than direct stimulus. Now the economy is starting to grow again - jobs always come much slower than GDP growth - always - now we need to help the most severely impacted as well as the states. The debt will be addressed and as a nation with a sovereign currency we have the ability to manage our approach to our debt in a rational way that the nations of the EU lack because of their adoption of the Euro. We are uniquely positioned in our economy to make the investments in our future in infrastucture - renewable energy etc. - create sustainable growth - and then - without the fear mongering currently filling the media - rationally and systematically address the issue of debt. Knee jerk - short term political motivated reactionary cuts will stall or destroy the recovery at this fragile point - as it always has in the past.
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John Robert
current actor, producer, director
03:16 AM on 07/07/2010
The stimilus worked. No teacher,cop or fireman lost their job.
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amyen
08:51 AM on 07/07/2010
A rather simplistic argument. Please elaborate.
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Eagle Bill
10:52 PM on 07/06/2010
You have to be an idiot to vote Republican. They crashed the economy and started two useless agressive wars. The Democrats are so afraid of the Republicans that they are useless. Obama is nothing but a Wall Street tool, some brains but no guts. Third party is the only way to go.
11:39 PM on 07/06/2010
Maybe if people like Eagle Bill organized and told Republicans what they thought then obama wouldn't run up against a solid wall of Republicans. If Obama was for coffee breaks Republicans would vote against them. For all the huffing and puffingabout being such a great democracy, Americans are too lazy to vote and don't know enough to vote intelligently. A lot of the can't even name the prsident. Its really sad. A country with so many brilliant people and a country with so many more ignoramuses.
07:04 PM on 07/06/2010
Is it possible austerity or spending could work? I pose this question, not based upon macro economics theory, but upon my own observations of people who are the most secure financially. The first group accumulate wealth using the philosophy that one must invest and spend to get back rewards. The second group accumulate wealth using the philosophy that a penny saved is a penny earned. Generally, these are the two wealthiest and financially secure groups in my little world. I don't know that I can extrapolate that to governments and nations, but I also don't know that I can't.

If you rely upon the arguments presented in the comments on this topic one could easily conclude that neither would work and we are doomed. Could it be that either pursued with confidence and consistency, along with cleaning up some other systemic problems with our system, and taking a long term view could lead to prosperity for our citizens and nation? Just some food for thought.

Is it the constant wrangling and debate that is the problem? Maybe we just need leadership to provide leadership. We need to set consistent (to the wealth building philosophy), achievable goals and pursue them. I don't think it is possible without some pain and suffering, no matter what path we take, but maybe it is possible. Wishy washy, flip flopping, mud slinging, blame throwing, leaders may be the largest hindrance of all!
09:35 PM on 07/06/2010
Of course they are!! They are Politicians.
11:35 PM on 07/06/2010
What you are describing is the difference between micro and macro economics, except that investment is important for the government, and it comes in the form of roads, power grid, schools, etc.
06:19 PM on 07/06/2010
Spending money for the sake of spending money doesn't help the economy. If the US increases the budget deficit further while not addressing the fundamental problems of the economy then the extra spending will make us all considerably worse off after the money is spent. This administration needs to focus on increasing investment in wealth creating industries in the US and reducing dependence on foreign oil. Thus far he hasn't addressed those issues whatsoever.
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Snowball
08:19 PM on 07/06/2010
It's no "for the sake of spending money," but to create consumer demand by investing in infrastructure and services. This puts money in the hands of people who will spend it immediately on goods and services. Not to mention the long term benefits for business from improved infrastructure.
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super
09:17 PM on 07/06/2010
Oil is oil; reducing dependence on foreign oil achieves nothing. We need to reduce dependence on fossil fuels and transition out of this twilight industry into a renewable energy future by investing in green jobs and infrastructure now.
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MrBadger
05:27 PM on 07/06/2010
The thing is, the conservatives have done a very good job of messaging and their ability to march in lock step while squashing all dissent has given them muscle beyond their numbers or any compelling nature of their ideology. So the politicians are hesitant to take them on, even if their non-ideas make no sense. What progressives need to do is make a more compelling message of why the conservatives have exactly the wrong medicine for the economy and for the American people right now. What we need is someone at the top who can and will take on the task of educating the public. Obama can... but will he? The evidence is that for whatever reason, he does not see that as his role. Who's role he thinks that is puzzles me.
04:38 PM on 07/06/2010
All the apoplexy over deficits from the people who said “Reagan proved deficits don’t matter”? What a joke. They flushed hundreds of billions away “off budget” invading Iraq, and destroyed our economy, now that we have to spend money to rebuild the house they burned down they’re complaining about deficits?

This is the wife beater complaining his knuckles hurt (after punching his wife out).
04:32 PM on 07/06/2010
If a Republican says he believes in cutting the deficit, what shred of evidence can he offer to back up his claim? Tax cuts for the wealthy?
04:44 PM on 07/06/2010
He voted for Eisenhower?
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amyen
08:54 AM on 07/07/2010
The highest tax rate was something like 80 under during Eisenhower. So that wouldn't work.
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super
09:18 PM on 07/06/2010
and starting new wars.
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Yikes11
04:24 PM on 07/06/2010
Why would this comment be pending approval? I mean really, HP. Come on.

You're preaching to the choir, write your congress person
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Yikes11
04:24 PM on 07/06/2010
You're preaching to the choir, write your congress person.