Among all the difficult choices and severe challenges President Obama will face on January 20th and in the months and years to follow, there is one very attractive change that is relatively easy to bring about. The major reason I am wildly optimistic about a US/Russia deal is that it can be based on a principle that underlies many, if not all, great deals: There are concessions that Russia can make for us that we care about deeply--and that they do not. And there are concessions Russia dearly wants--but about which we do not care nearly as much.
Before I quickly list the main elements of such a master deal I should note that it requires dropping the remaining vestiges of the neocon fantasy (a) that we can democratize the world and that only countries that embrace our kind of regime are reliable partners in peace, and (b) that we are a superpower which is so rich and omnipotent that we do not need to set priorities and we can gain even things that are low on our wish list.
What does the United States want most from Russia? That it stop supplying Iran with nuclear plants and uranium and that it join us and the Europeans in a joint drive to convince Iran to come clean with regard to its nuclear military program. And--that Russia accelerate the Cooperative Threat Reduction Initiative, our joint project to ensure that the small nuclear bombs Russia has in great numbers (the bombs most suitable for terrorists) and the materials from which such bombs can be made will be better protected or rendered inoperative, and that their contents will be blended down. Russia has no profound reason to refuse to help us on these two fronts. Indeed, it has its own misgivings about facing a Muslim nation armed with nukes or terrorists with such weapons--only it does not feel nearly as threatened by these prospects as we are.
What does Russia most want from the United States? That we not put the instruments of "Star Wars" (our missile defense system) close to its borders and that we not surround it with NATO allies. Putting missile defense in Poland and the Czech Republic is one of those far out ideas of the Bush Administration that we cannot pay for anyhow, it is unlikely to work, and it can be located in other areas. And although we may wish to see Georgia and the Ukraine in NATO (some even want to make Russia a member!), we can defer this invitation, say, for ten years without breaking out in sweat or tears or feeling any other great sense of loss.
No Drama Obama has shown so far a keen sense for making moves that keep the voters in rapture. See his rapid fire cabinet appointments, which have stretched out over a fair number of news cycles. See the way he plans to introduce a grand stimulus package on his first day in office, and has invited the Pentagon to prepare an Iraqi pullout, all before the first week of his presidency is completed. Striking a major deal with Russia, a country which following 1990 had worked quite well with the United States but has recently turned into an obstructionist opponent to our foreign policy, would fit well into Obama's first 100 days. Indeed, there is little that would make the much more difficult moves in the Middle East easier than first taking care of Iran's nuclear program. This in turn requires finding a way to work with Russia.
Hillary: Get your heavy coat ready. It is freezing in Moscow in January, but you can bring Russia in from the cold.
Amitai Etzioni is Professor of International Relations at The George Washington University and author of Security First (Yale, 2007) www.securityfirstbook.com email: comnet@gwu.edu
What does Russia most want from the United States?
That we do not put the instruments of "Star Wars" (our missile defense system) close to its borders ... OK
What does the United States want most from Russia? That it stop supplying Iran ..
well - not quite.
The posturing of neocons (of Bush pretending that he makes the 'laws of the planet' ) did not work and will not work, it should be abandoned.
In the meantime - the Bulgarians are freezing to death since Ukraine is blocking deliveries of the Natural Gas, and Palestinians are being killed in Gaza.
Both problems are solvable, but we (the world) need solution NOW,
Czechs have presidency of the EU - and that is a problem, current Minister of foreign affairs. certain von Schwarnzeberg has zero leverage with Russian
This is the solution: Obama can via informal channels recommend to the Czech parlament to express lack of confidence to Topolanek government. It will take just few of the votes.
New (Paroubek's) government can negotiate with Russians. They persuade Yušcenko to resign, allowing Tymoščenko to mend fences wit Russia. They (and EU) will recognize independent Osetia.
Russia WILL GIVE to Ukraine DISCOUNT ON GAS. Gas flow will resume.
US and Russia (brokered by EU) will guarantee security of Iran and Israel.
AND of India and Pakistan -- paving the road to new era, in which the international law will have teeth.
they find some
.". and love will steer the stars"
Obama must announce in a complete agreement with Iran and the 23 Arab states that Israel will abide with the updated 1982 Saudi proposal of Israel giving over to Palestine all of the settlements, the return to Israel of colonials who do not wish to become citizens of Palestine and resettling the Palestinians now in forced exile in Lebanon, Syria into the vacated settlements as a start of reparations. In return for Iran forsaking a nuclear weapon Israel would give up theirs. This could set a framework for Pakistan and India, which in turn would force the rest of the nuclear club to give up all nuclear weapons.
The hundreds of billions saved from a non-nuclear military across the world could be used for a supranational agency to reduce global warming.
Thanks for your well-informed and thoughtful comments. I agree with all that you have stated.
professor Etzioni has for many years been an advocate of Israeli position. As a colleague of his, I have no respect for his opinions.
The Asian nations all have one thing in common; they have all suffered in one form or anther by USA, Russia, France, and England over the last 250 years. Professor Etzioni reasons horse trade"... concessions that Russia can make for us that we care about deeply...concessions Russia dearly wants..." In 1907, Britain and Russia prepared to divide Iran into "spheres of influence", for exploitation of her oil and other national resources
Modern history has many illustrations similar to Professor Etzioni's suggestions; he wants to turn back the colonial dial back some 150 years. We can not solve the problem of the Middle East by our horse trading attitude. The nature of the problems between Arabs and Jews, and Arabs and Iranians (Persians) has historical roots that spans several thousand years. They can not be solved by neocolonialism.
Iran and Nuclear Fuel Production is not the source of problem:
http://straveler-myamerica.blogspot.com/2008/09/iran-and-nuclear-fuel-production.html
Let us take the first step by eliminating all nuclear bombs from the Middle East and providing an international umbrella of protection for each nation in the Middle East.
Thanks for comment here and the blogpost you have in Myamerica. Americans need many more well-informed persons like you to post.