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Amitai Etzioni

Amitai Etzioni

Posted: November 18, 2010 10:18 AM

What Gridlock?

What's Your Reaction:

The most widely predicted course for Washington over the next two years is gridlock. "What we know is that we're going to have gridlock," says NBC's Chuck Todd. "On the big questions, especially federal spending and taxing, confrontation will be the order of the day [...] gridlock is likely to be the dominant theme," predicts Congressional scholar Norm Ornstein. Washington is in for "two years of legislative deadlock," holds Sarah Binder of the Brookings Institution. There will "absolutely" be "more intense" gridlock than there was before the 2010 elections, says Thomas Mann, also of the Brookings Institution.

As I see it, this is true only for liberal policies--not for conservative ones. It is already clear that conservatives will get basically the kind of extension of the Bush tax cuts they want--by far the biggest item for the near future, involving three or four trillion dollars, depending on the small print.

In addition, they will, in one way or another, undermine what they call "Obamacare," although they will not abolish it. And the same holds for the new financial regulations. That is, they will roll back "only" the two main achievements of the first two years of the Obama presidency.

In addition, the conservatives (GOP plus select Democrats) will get to cut the spending of most if not all discretionary federal programs. And, if recent news items are to be trusted, the GOP may even get Obama to lead the trimming of entitlements, all while conservatives hold that they would not go near Medicare and Social Security, even with a children's pair of scissors. In an interview on 60 Minutes shortly after the midterm elections, President Obama observed that "the vast majority of the federal budget are things that people really think are important. Like Social Security and Medicare and defense." He than added, "I mean, we're gonna have to [...] tackle some big issues like entitlements that, you know, when you listen to the Tea Party or you listen to Republican candidates they promise we're not gonna touch." If President Obama follows through and takes a knife to entitlement spending, the GOP is unlikely to oppose him -- and may well outflank him with deeper cuts of the kind seen in Representative Paul Ryan's "roadmap." The FDA, the EPA, funding for scientific research -- and above all, the new consumer protection agency -- are all in for a close haircut.

Even DC gun control regulations will be further trimmed (although there is not much left to cut).

And conservatives are very likely to get their way on key foreign policy issues. Surely they will prevent President Obama from disengaging in Afghanistan, which, as I see it, will be disastrous. They will get a $4 billion increase in funding for nuclear weapons facilities (besides the $10 billion already promised) before they will even consider approving the New START treaty. And Attorney General Holder is likely to find it even harder to try terrorists in civilian courts.

In a few areas, the GOP may even cooperate with the Democrats and the White House -- as long as their goals are compatible with the Republican agenda. More free trade and more charter schools for instance.

If this is gridlock, I do not know what you would call a major sweep.

Amitai Etzioni is a University Professor at the George Washington University and the author of The Moral Dimension: Toward a New Economics.

 
 
 
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
ProudLiberalDan
Standing up an fighting conservatives since 1987
02:42 PM on 11/19/2010
Since the President lacks the courage and strength to stand up to the conservative movement, our best hope of stopping them lies with Senate Democrats filibustering conservative legislation.

This will not be easy as corporations will be showering the Senate Democrats with corporate campaign cash to try and get them not to filibuster even if they vote against the legislation.

To advance progressive legislation in the meantime we need to work with those states where the Democrats still control the legislature and have Democratic governors (California, Washington, Illinois, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Maryland, Vermont, Hawaii) and seek to advance policies there that can be used as national models in the future.

Each of those states could pass a statewide public health insurance option if they so chose.

Stop waiting for the President to "get his mojo" or stand up and do the right thing. He's not a transformational leader. He's a weak leader who has chosen the path of serving corporatists and capitulating to conservatives in the name of "bipartisanship" -- anything to avoid confrontation.

We need to be building progressive movements on the ground and thinking in the long-term electoral realm of a post-Obama era and ensure the Democrats nominate a strong leader instead of a weak one.

We've already wasted too much of our time and energy on a President who is leading the Democratic Party and the progressive side of politics over the cliff in the name of "bipartisanship".
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
BARRISTER
05:05 AM on 11/19/2010
Were any of these these predictions to materialize I will be voting 3rd Party across the Ballot next time.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Tom S Cedar Mill
This ain't no party, this ain't no disco.
11:11 AM on 11/19/2010
Which is exactly the same as not voting. Unless you want to deliberately split votes to bring a particular candidate/party down.
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ProudLiberalDan
Standing up an fighting conservatives since 1987
02:44 PM on 11/19/2010
No, it's building a new party. The Republicans were once a third-party.
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thinklib
I will not mince words.
11:51 PM on 11/18/2010
You mean there isn't going to be "hope" and "change"?

Obama is not only just another politician, he's an inept one at that.
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ProudLiberalDan
Standing up an fighting conservatives since 1987
02:44 PM on 11/19/2010
He's so weak he makes Jimmy Carter look like LBJ.
03:55 PM on 11/18/2010
If you aren't personally acquainted with several unemployed people who are in real trouble, you must not know anyone. The statistics we are fed are far from the truth--true unemployment is close to 20%, and we've been losing net jobs for years now. There's no prospect for improvement. And we have virtually no social safety net. More and more folks are going to be without even the sketchy unemployment benefits they dish out. Lots and lots of people have no health care. And now they're talking about cutting social security and Medicare.

The government is tackling this by having the Fed buy up close to a trillion dollars in outstanding US bonds. That's right--that's their big program. It seems to be having almost no effect.

Meanwhile, we have a military that's as costly as the rest of the world combined. Much of it is completely useless, unless we continue to invade and occupy innocent nations. And they're talking about massive tax breaks for the rich.

This country's politics are a mess, people, and I look forward to the day when enough of us are fed up with it and hit the streets. A million people on the mall might start to wake these people up. Until then, our people will suffer terribly, and the politicians will go on serving the richest .01%.
Genders
Love, Tolerance, Enlightenment
07:37 PM on 11/18/2010
Trickle down, give the super rich banker crooks enough money, and they might buy some stuff....
PaulArt
Under 50 and Screwed by the 65+
02:50 PM on 11/18/2010
Yes, totally agreed. The Obama Presidency in fact begins in 2011 with the new GOP led Congress. 'Chief Surrender Now' in the White House will strike spectacular George Costanza type deals where he will hold out for less as the Issa witch hunts gather steam. He will do all this in the rock solid belief that this will bring home the 'independent' vote in 2012. Over Thanksgiving and Christmas the Senate Blue Dogs will caucus with the GOP monarchs of the House to plot the long reign of the knives that will be the 2011-12 legislative terms.
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HUFFPOST PUNDIT
den1953
The best politicians are for free!
02:33 PM on 11/18/2010
Short of the Senator changing that 60 vote rule i see all kinds of gridlock and if it is done correctly it will frustrate the Republicans more so the Democrats!
02:02 PM on 11/18/2010
Yeah. Doesn't that all sound just peachy?
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
William50
01:23 PM on 11/18/2010
Liberal, conservative policies, a better way would be to say Democrat or republican policies, would it not. This is the corner stone of both parties. The very bedrock they have built their high and might castles upon, this is the party at it core and they will fight to protect their interests. But they will both fight for what is best for America today and that will be the undermining of both parties.
The American party, the future of American politics as the Democrats and Republicans are the past, understands that liberal and conservative are words not people who are being hurt. It understands that both camps used these terms to harm America.
In the middle, not as a referee but as an equal, talking over what is best for this nation is what the American party stands for. The people, the government, workers, main street are now on the table. There are seats for discussion on every topic and ice baths, yes throwing each other in an icy lake to cool off, baths. We are willing to allow each of the hundred sides to express themselves. No, neither party will be happy with the final outcome but it will be what is best for America.
Great education, fair taxes, a strong military, health care reform, more jobs that are full time and allow you to live the American dream, controls on insurance, financial, rebuilding, retooling and educating America. American party,!
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
mommadona
I paint. I blog. Therefore, I am.
12:15 PM on 11/18/2010
So, when's the Purple Revolution?
jhNY
Mercy.
12:48 PM on 11/18/2010
Is The Artist formerly Known As Prince seeking to overthrow our government?
HUFFPOST PUNDIT
JShankel
I want my country forward
03:59 PM on 11/18/2010
He's been back to The Artist Currently Known As Prince since 2000.
12:12 PM on 11/18/2010
At one point, Obama said he would rather be a good one-term president rather than a mediocre two-term president. However, because of his failure to challenge the Republicans, it now appears that he will end up being a mediocre (or worse) one-term president.
bmumfie1
The Right is always wrong!
05:35 PM on 11/18/2010
I wouldn't bet on that. It is way to early to make predictions.
10:24 PM on 11/18/2010
He lost my vote right after he said we're not looking backwards at the Bush administration illegalities, immediately followed by installing Geitner and Summers.
11:48 AM on 11/18/2010
I told my nephew... "it looks like you'll have to join the military or homeland security, everything else is going away". He doesn't believe me, of course.

I went to a number of universities recently and asked the engineering faculty if they were seeing any more funding "to bring production back to the U.S.". They laughed at me, "No".

Bottom line... this country has been hijacked by mean, nasty, ignorant, rich children. It's now becoming so obvious what happened in Germany in the 1930s.

Time to jump off this train?
12:18 PM on 11/18/2010
Seriously, I'm done talking about where this train is going. Time to start talking about where another train is going. What train would that be, and where is it going? Any ideas? Is there some place that we Ameicans (myself a mechanical engineer with an MS degree and 20 years of experience) can go? Where's a good place that will both welcome us and make use of us?
01:31 PM on 11/18/2010
Well, as the TeaBaggers are so fond of reminding us ... there is always the "2nd Amendment" solution. They seem to think they are the only ones who are allowed to exercise that amendment, however.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Tom Nesbitt
03:03 AM on 11/19/2010
Canada. And you get one the very best health care systems in the world.
Go ahead.ask any Canadian if they would like to replace it with a U.S. style system.
That low key nature they are known for will soon fade. Gun laws as well.
Very civilized.
blogisti
Approved Knowledge Only
11:29 AM on 11/18/2010
The two major accomplishments of the Democrats, Health Care and Financial Regulation are both pale imitations of what they should have been.
Health Care will not be affected because, as limp as it is in controlling costs, it does prevent Health Insurance companies from cutting people with pre-existing conditions and it does cover children and youth. It would be hard to roll those back. Even a Republican supporter would see those as positive, although they wouldn't actually be able to speak the words.
The Finance Reform was full of holes to begin with and , in the end, would not prevent another bubble. It would be interesting to see how the Republicans justify deregulation though. Unless they can sell the idea of speeding up the arrival of the next bubble as being a good thing, just cancelling what already exists would a hard sell indeed.
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HeevenSteven
20 Minutes into the future.
11:03 AM on 11/18/2010
I agree!
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AvgJoeBlow
We are smarter than any of us.
11:02 AM on 11/18/2010
Eight more years and they will have our Social Security money, whats left of our 401K's, Rich people and Corporations will pay ZERO taxes. You and I will be working for minimum wage with no benifits, or chatting in the Soup Line. And Fox News will be proclaming 24/7 the wonders of the New Capitalist Conservative Age. -AJB
jhNY
Mercy.
12:53 PM on 11/18/2010
Although I generally agree, there;s no real reason to believe there will be soup lines. I predict coupons redeemable at national restaurant chains with drive-by windows, though by that time, many who hold the coupons will have to walk. And if any of the employees within walk off unexpectedly, the new hire will be outside already-- just a matter of moving from one line to the other....
10:42 AM on 11/19/2010
There will be no soup lines or redeemable coupons. All that will be left after all wealth is re-distributed to the already wealthy is your own bootstraps. And no hope of pulling them up.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
yogfthagen
01:27 PM on 11/18/2010
You've read Paul Ryan's Roadmap, have you?
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Russell Masingale
weary I am of the Astroturf.
07:47 AM on 11/19/2010
yeah it is the primrose path straight to hell.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
wesleypresley
Marxist since 1968
10:53 AM on 11/18/2010
Sad but true. Democrats just can not beat the Republicans at their own game. There really is only one political party in the USA, Republican and Republican Lite.
jhNY
Mercy.
12:57 PM on 11/18/2010
I would have lost a lot of money years ago betting on the Washington Generals, if I hadn't been told that they were a wholly owned component of the Globetrotters' franchise, who were following a 'Trotter-written script that precluded victory. Even after I was made aware of these facvts, I was still tempted to bet, although not so much-- the odds were so attractive that for a dollar, had the Generals won, I would have been several hundreds of dollars richer! If the Generals had won....