President Obama's strategy to protect us from the danger of nuclear war and nuclear terrorism is about to be tested. The precept that good deeds (and fabulous speeches) beget good deeds will face reality at two major international conferences: Obama's Nuclear Security Summit in mid April and the Review Conference of the Parties to the Non-Proliferation Treaty in May.
Obama proffered an attractive vision of a world without nuclear weapons, and a theory--that if Russia and the U.S. reduce their stockpiles, other nations will be inspired either to give up their nuclear arms or refrain from acquiring them. That is the best kind of leadership--setting a good example, serving as a role model, changing the atmosphere.
Well the United States and Russia just did agree to cut their nuclear arsenals by 30%, according to provisions in the new START treaty, which Obama will sign in April. Here is where the effects of this agreement will be tested:
I predict (and it takes very little foresight to make this prediction) that the American and Russian moves toward zero will have no discernible effect on any of these burning issues. The President will have to employ other means to foster the nations involved to make progress in the required directions.
I am not against inspiring the people of the world and their leaders. However, it seems quite evident that the U.S., its allies, and other responsible powers must add strong incentives for nations to deproliferate and strong disincentives for those who do not. Much stronger sanctions, fuller enforcement of the ban against shipping nuclear material from one nation to another, diplomatic pressure on India and Pakistan to settle their differences (rather than providing either with nuclear assets and know-how), and at least leaving military options on the table are all called for.
Nuclear arms are the greatest threat to our security, that of our allies, and to world peace. It is time to treat them accordingly.
Amitai Etzioni is a University Professor at The George Washington University and the author of Security First (Yale 2007). He can be reached at icps@gwu.edu. To learn more about Dr. Etzioni's policy positions, you can follow him on twitter: @amitaietzioni.
1. Will Iran be permitted to have enrich uranium for nuclear power and medical isotopes as required by the NNPT?
2. Will Israel sign the NNPT?
----------------
Their move towards zero is a very very far road to zero. Even after both countries meet the (new) treaty requirements, each will still have many more nuclear weapons that the rest of the world combined. So please do not pass the buck to the rest of the world. Each country, like the former Soviet states will realize that maintaining nuclear weapons is an expensive proposition, yeilding no useful purpose.
America and Russia are still the worlds largest exporters of weapons.
Every decade since 1950 !!!!
Besides despite the end of the Cold War, the single greatest threat to humanity has remained the accidental launch by either the US or Russia followed by counterforce launches.
What does that even mean? Assuming the U.S. and Russia actually both follow through on the new treaty, when we pressure NKorea and others, do you actually believe they'll be more inclined to give up their nukes because we diminished the number of ours?