NH Primary Day: Just Yet Begun...

I spent the day yesterday back in Salem with Mitt Romney and Hillary Clinton -- the two candidates who, most likely, will end up in second place when the votes in New Hampshire have been counted. But rather than seeing two contenders on their last legs, I came away convinced it was far too early to count either Romney or Clinton out.

Much like George W. Bush in 2000 fought back from his New Hampshire loss as a "Reformer with Results," Romney has used his early setback as an opportunity to retool his campaign. His town hall featured a large sign reading "Washington is Broken" to the left of a big American flag. Romney's new stump speech posits him as not as the defender of the Republican establishment he was running as for all of 2007 but as what you might well call "an agent of change." He pitches himself as someone who is coming from outside the Beltway to transform Washington and explicitly defines John McCain as a veteran Senator who has been a decades long fixture of the status quo.

To the right of that big American flag, Romney has another sign: a numbered "To Do" list that he uses almost as a Power Point slide to guide him through the policy elements of his speech. It is Harvard MBA hokey, but -- for him -- it works.

Hillary Clinton is likely to lose big tonight. But the talk that she is out of this race is silly. In the past couple of days, she has shown more of her winning personality - and that is all for the good. She has also begun to grope toward something that she did not demonstrate for most of 2007: a rationale for her candidacy. Her campaign has allowed her -- someone who helped begin the Children's Defense Fund and the Legal Services corporation in the 1970s -- to be pigeonholed by the media as a part of the Washington establishment. Now, rather than vaguely professing her "experience," she is beginning to offer up her effectiveness in bringing change. With another loss in the space of a week, her road forward would be difficult. But at least in New Hampshire, she has begun to find her way to that path.

Comments

[Openeyes]

Pipedreams!
Just a couple of days ago, you were writing here that Edwards was basically out of the race for finishing second in Iowa, that only she and Obama were left. But Edwards finished ahead of her in that race. She was suppossed to clobber everyone, but hasn't. If she loses the next 4 races, and it is very possible she will, she may be out of money to effectively continue into or past Feb 5. But what about Edwards? He may have enough staying power to survive Feb 5, because he's not expected to be the frontrunner in those races. He might outlast Hillary. If she comes into Feb 5 without a first place finish, she's toast, Edwards may not be.

And none of this "her staff allowed her to be pigeonholed" as part of the Washington establishment. She chose to run as the "experienced" candidate - and that was her only experience.

Start being objective. Edwards fails to come in first in Iowa and he's "out." Hillary can lose 4 races in a row and she's not? Explain again why that won't be too early to count her out?

[paixa3]

*****and that is all for the good. She has also begun to grope toward something that she did not demonstrate for most of 2007: a rationale for her candidacy.*****

Based upon her voting record in congress, I DO NOT WANT OR NEED Billary to be president (nor Obama actually).....

[LittleBrother]

Even if this is true, it doesn't say much for Hillary if she's only now becoming a Wonk in Progress.

[daveny]

It's the judgement thing, stupid.

I think Hillary is a wonderful woman, and is incredibly smart, and deep down probably more progressive than we'd know.

But she's made horrendous errors in judgement in trying to climb to power. Maybe you could put her down as a great woman ruined by a lousy man, but ultimately, the choice was hers -- following in Bill's footsteps, and following in Bill's tired triangulation politics, surrounded by the scuzzy DC insiders the country has turned against.

If that's the judgement she's shown in running for president, what's to say she'll miraculously reveal the "real Hillary" if only we give her the keys to the white house?

[kushykush]

"Find her way to that path?" Which path? Firing Mark Penn? Getting fresh consultants? Re-packaging herself? Why is the question, "she is almost finished," silly?

Should't Hillary have found the rationale for her candidacy before she started? You fail to tell us what is making her change so quickly, midway? Is it not the Obama factor? If Obama continues to inspire, and Hillary continues to mutter her scripted talking points, no matter what rationale she comes up with, she is toast. That, btw, is not a silly assumption.

If Hillary wants to come back then let her get in touch with her own humanity, and not forget where she came from. Hillary is too much impressed by money and what money can do. The same problem which Bill has and which made him run to the monied "center."

Thankfully, a whole bunch of voters, both old and new, are not impressed by money and the slick consultant-driven campaign machines.

The question is not whether Hillary can find a rationale for her candidacy. (Obviously, she is very bright to easily find a rationale.) The question is where is this rationale going to come from? From the true convictions of her heart or the golden pen of media consultants like Mr. Penn?

Kush K

[estabon32]

Beg pardon, but if she loses N.H., Nevada, and South Carolina she is probably 'toasty' if not downright 'toasted'. I predict that she will still continue to campaign tirelessly, relentlessly and nastily until early March when she will drop out to spend more time either 'with her family' or Amelia Earhart.

Bon