Pundits scoff at the notion of a viable independent presidential candidate. Normally, they have good reason. Independent candidates face many hurdles, which is why only two in the past 170 years have managed to get even 20 percent of the popular vote. But these are not normal times.
Our two-party system is buckling under the weight of its dysfunction. Exhausted by partisan gridlock, Americans are finally ready to embrace a centrist, pragmatic, independent candidate free from the demands of special interests and ideologues.
Research shows that the electability of an independent candidate primarily depends upon: (1) the degree of voters' alienation; (2) funding; (3) voters' affection for the major party candidates; and (4) the independent candidate's likability.
In 2012, these conditions are aligned in ways that could rocket an independent candidate to new heights.
-- Voters' trust in the federal government has plunged in recent years, with just 10 percent of Americans saying they trust the federal government to do what's right, and Congress' approval rating flirting with single digits.
These expressions of distrust have no precedent in the modern era.
-- The sharp decline in party registrations is another indication of political alienation. More than 2.5 million voters have left the Democratic and Republican parties since the 2008 elections, driving the percentage of registered independents to an all time high -- 40 percent. That's a bigger chunk of the electorate than either party can claim. No wonder sizeable majorities of Americans now say they would be willing to support a third-party or independent presidential candidate.
-- The major parties no longer have a stranglehold over money. The Internet has democratized fundraising and enables independent or previously unknown candidates who capture the public's imagination to raise large sums of money. In recent years, Howard Dean (2004), Jim Webb (2006), Barack Obama (2008), Ron Paul (2008 and 2011) and Rand Paul (2010), among others, have all attracted supporters and quickly raised prodigious amounts of cash on the Internet.
-- In 2008 Obama and John McCain enjoyed broad popularity for much of the election cycle. This year the candidates are likely to be less popular. President Obama's approval ratings have dropped throughout much of his presidency, and they are now low-to-middling; much of the Democratic base has lost enthusiasm for him and most independent voters no longer support him.
-- Meanwhile, the candidates vying for the GOP nomination are considered uniformly unimpressive by most Americans. The "thermometer ratings" of all Republican candidates -- an important measurement of likeability -- are significantly lower than those received by past candidates. The favorability ratings of the remaining GOP presidential candidates are anemic. A CBS News survey found that a full 58 percent of Republican primary voters want more presidential choices, while just 37 percent said they are satisfied with the current field.
Electoral dynamics in 2012 should allow a respected, well-financed independent to perform better than Ross Perot, a deeply-flawed candidate who dropped out of and re-entered the 1992 race, and still received 19 percent of the popular vote. Americans are now more distrustful of the federal government than they were in 1992; they are less partisan now than they were then; the misery index is higher; Congress and the two parties are less popular; and the major parties' candidates will likely be less popular as well.
Ironically, the only factor now preventing a historic independent presidential run is the lack of an actual candidate. But no independent voice has risen to satisfy voters' hunger for alternatives -- yet.
In his recent book, Washington, Ron Chernow depicts our first president as a flawed but fiercely independent leader, who shunned political parties and unified a fledgling nation often at war with itself.
Is there a modern-day Washington now in our midst? If not, we will remain hunkered in our trenches as the noxious fumes of partisan warfare continue to descend upon us. If so, he or she could prevail on the political battlefield, propelling us forward. Conditions have never been better.
This blog is based on a research paper drafted by Mr. Doctoroff, which you can download here.
 |
 |
|
| Obama | Romney | |
|---|---|---|
| Electoral Votes (270 to win) |
332 | 206 |
| Obama | Romney | |
|---|---|---|
| Total | 65,899,660 | 60,932,152 |
| Percent | 51.1% | 47.2% |
| Democrats* | Republicans | |
|---|---|---|
| Current Senate | 53 | 47 |
| Seats gained or lost | +2 | -2 |
| New Total | 55 | 45 |
| Democrats | Republicans | |
|---|---|---|
| Seats won | 201 | 234 |
Bureau of the Public Debt
P.O. Box 2188
Parkersburg , West Virginia
26106-2188
Last year three million dollars were donated to this worthy cause. Aren't political parties interesting?
Sorry, but they don't interest me. I registered as an independent voter the first time I voted back in 1970, I believe.
F&F...
Which leaves third parties already organized and populated and funded to consider. Which of these parties' platforms or candidates have enough name recognition and enough support among the electorate to make a credible run at victory? Me either.
Paul might attempt a (quixotic) third party run, but is more likely to go to the Republican convention and fight for his agenda to become party platform.
Without a credible chance at victory, ALL that remains of a third party run in 2012 is the nuisance factor-- which in some places could take away a significant portion of votes from the Democratic or Republican candidate in the general election, but in ways that may generally reflect the opposite of the electorates' general intent as outcome. See 1992, when the combined vote totals for GHW Bush and Ross Perot, both conservative in their overall political philosophies, dwarfed the total for Clinton, or in 2000, when the combined votes for Gore and Nader were larger than the total votes in the US (and crucial states) for GW Bush.
The only way an independent could defeat the two major parties is with a write-in candidacy that ignores the news media, solicits no contributions, makes no expenditures, and is based on votes instead of on buying influence. As long as Americans give their political contributions to party candidates instead of supporting their government, they will continue to be scammed by party politicians who take them through cycles of speculation followed by depression. The way for Americans to gain economic independence is to send their political contributions directly to
The Bureau of the Public Debt
P.O. Box 2188
Parkersburg, West Virginia
26106-2188
About three million dollars were contributed last year.
The rest of the people in this country send all of the money they can to party politicians, either through the Bureau of Internal Revenue or by direct contributions. I am putting my money on the United States. These two major parties are dead meat. They just don't know it yet.
So you are a Moderate Conservative.
The Ds and Rs (along with the Libertarians and Greens) build a party structure and then along comes a johnny-come-lately who thinks he's smarter, cooler and better than the aligned partisans because, after all, he's not dumb enough to be snookered by a politician and he can make up his own mind.
Trouble is, the solidity of that mind is suspect because it so easily flip flops in the wind.
If indies comprise 40% of the voting public then go and form your own Independent Party and pay for your own apparatus and field your own candidates and lleave the rest of us alone.
Have the courage of your convictions; If you don't like Ds or Rs, then do something about it.
Flip flopping between Ds and Rs is politcal cowardice.
Anyone who blindly votes for whomever their party puts forward is at best guilty of intellectual sloth. Most Independent voters take a look at the various candidates' policies and proposals and go with the one who best fits their own view of what is best given the facts on the ground at the moment.
First, you assume someone who belongs to a party "blindly" votes for whomever the party offers.
Typical high minded elitism of the holier than thou independent voter.
Ever hear of a party primary? Of course not, you don't belong to a party.
The Republican Party, in case no one has noticed, has been in the throes of mitosis since Mike Huckabee and the 2008 election. There is a populist conservative constituency which includes the Tea Party and evangelicals and an establishment group consisting of moderate conservatives.
On the Democratic side you have the more radical liberals and OWS as well as the rational progressives which include Evan Bayh on one end and Barack Obama on the other.
Any coalition which unites two or more of these groups can get something done. When all four go their separate ways we generally get gridlock.