The Growing Divide: Climate Adaptation vs. Denial

I recently attended my home association's annual meeting, a gentle community affair that focused on reviewing our budget. Only one line item was way up this year -- after a record winter in Connecticut, snow removal fees rose 30 percent. No big surprise.

But I was shocked to learn from the association president that the snow levels and fees would be "back down to normal next year." Apparently, all climate changes would be remedied by December of this year. Phew.

I considered chiming in on the true uncertainty about climate "weirding" and how we could get no snow next winter... or a lot more. But since it's a relatively small part of our budget, I figured I'd just let the chips fall where they may.

In this case, the level of denial about where we're really headed as a planet is of little consequence. But what happens when large cities or countries make investment and planning decisions based on either science or denial?

The New York Times just reported on Chicago's impressive plans for climate adaptation. I spoke last year at an event in Chicago and a climate expert from the Union of Concerned Scientists showed one of the more powerful slides I've ever seen on climate impacts. Over time, Illinois will find itself feeling more like the 2010 version of east Texas. As the Times pointed out, models indicate that Chicago will see 70 or more days per year over 90 degrees (versus 15 each year over the last century).

The Times article is a fascinating look at how one city is grappling with this possible scenario. The city is shifting to more permeable pavement and planting hardier species of trees (over the last 30 years, they've already shifted about one growing zone).

In comparison, witness the sad display of lack of leadership from Texas Gov. Rick Perry last month. Facing record droughts, the governor suggested everyone pray for rain. Faith is fine, but not to the exclusion of actual preparedness.

This divide is starting to play out on the national and global scale. As I've written about many times, the U.S. is falling behind on clean economy spending and investment versus China, Germany, Britian and many others. As Yale Environment 360 (a wonderful publication) reported recently, the U.S. ranks 17th on clean tech spending as a percentage of GDP (Denmark is #1).

The global levels are hard to compare, of course, but preparedness in our communities? That's easy to imagine and the differences are tangible. The unprepared will be struggling with heat, floods, water shortages and much more. Over time, the gap between states and cities that are ready and areas that are in denial could make the country's current blue/red divide seem quaint.

 

 

 

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Comments

[NJP1]

06:24 PM on 05/29/2011

There can be no adaptation. There are too many people chasing too few resources. Politicians of every persuasion use ‘denial’ as words of comfort doled out to voters. They are aware of the lie, but if they tell the stark truth they won’t get re-elected. So they encourage the gullible to go on with a mindless belief that prayer will somehow restore the global status quo. (Sen. Shimkus: God will not allow the Earth to be destroyed) And that growth can go on forever. If you want to be terrified by what ‘growth’ means, check out Professor Albert Bartlett: http://www.energybulletin.net/51515 . Climate change is a side issue, our overheating environment is a result of excess humanity. We are now a plague species, the effects of climate change are the equivalent of a global sneeze to get rid of our excess numbers. There will be much suffering as the climate corrects our profligate breeding habits. We will not ‘adapt’ because adaptation means compromise. You cannot ‘prepare” for a world with 10 billion inhabitants. Altruism is OK when your neighbor needs a helping hand, it doesn’t work on a global scale. So, we burn food while millions go hungry. Real adaptation means a conscious decision to stop using biofuel and feeding hungry people instead. Our leaders cannot lead because they can only offer a future based on our energy fuelled past. It’s going to be very different. http://www.yourmedievalfuture.com/

[realpolitic]

02:30 AM on 05/29/2011

The reality-based community is moving on considering solutions aimed at how to cope with climate change, such as Chicago "shifting to more permeable pavement and planting hardier species of trees." Coastal communities are planning for rises in the ocean and a greater risk of flooding. All of this management is being done while deniers still deny climate change science and basic physics. On the federal level, the EPA will be regulating CO2 and perhaps eventually we will have some kind of cap and trade program. New technologies to conserve energy are being developed and bio-fuels are being explored for their potential. In the meantime, the far right is still denying climate change. Any person of judgment and discernment can see the deniers are being left farther and farther behind in the debate. This "global weirding" that we are experiencing means no one can escape the vagaries of the climate where more energy in the system, in the form of heat, translates to more violent and unpredictable weather. The conservatives are not only losing the debate, (they can not change science by closing their eyes and stomping the feet), but they risk losing a larger political argument of relevancy. Anyway, the country is moving on in its dialogue and deniers increasingly look and sound like the flat-earth society asking us not to believe what we can see with our own eyes.

[eaarth2]

05:59 AM on 05/28/2011

Climate change adaptation will need to be preventive- and be very costly. When disaster strikes- as it has recently, the money for clean up will cost billions. By 2020 climate disasters will be commonplace every season- insurance companies-- will have to readjust- and leave some markets, while raising rates in others- many could go belly up from huge claims- something they are now finding out.

For those still denying a problem exists - a bleak future is ahead. The most compelling reality is that those regions of the country facing the most difficult challenges and ravages of climate change in the future- are doing little or nothing to adapt.

[jkanon]

03:20 PM on 05/27/2011

I have heard that coastal communities and states are looking to move coastal roads inland. This makes a lot of sense, given that the oeceans will rise.