A Message to Republicans: Don't Go Measuring the Drapes Just Yet

09/29/2010 03:07 pm ET | Updated May 25, 2011

If you listen to leading Republican voices like Newt Gingrich, Sarah Palin, Sean Hannity, Rush Limbaugh and Dick Morris you'd hear how the GOP this November is going to pick up anywhere from 39 to 85 House seats and take control of the Senate. That there's gonna be a conservative landslide that'll dwarf Gingrich's 1994 "Republican Revolution." That America is shifting way to the right, with enthusiasm for a power change the highest it's ever been. Unfortunately for these Tea Party hopefuls the polls just don't support their wild predictions. In fact, if the polls are any true indication of what may happen, momentum appears to be shifting back to the Democrats.


In a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll. when it comes to who voters prefer to control Congress, Republicans area ahead 46%-43%, but down from a 9-point lead a month ago. On the critical "enthusiasm" front, a new Zogby poll shows Democrats up by just one point, 44%-43%, but it was the first time since mid-May that Democrats were ahead. Zogby also shows President Obama's popularity climbing as well.

"President Obama's attempts to draw contrasts with the Republicans and raise fears about a Republican takeover of Congress appear to have been successful, especially among Democratic voters," said John Zogby.

The WSJ/NBC poll also showed that 59% of independents do not support the Tea Party, which could be a troubling sign for hard-line conservatives as they seek to move beyond their tiny radical fringe base and appeal to these all-important undecideds.

Also of note is the narrowing gap in the Kentucky Senate race. According to a new Survey USA poll Tea Bagger Rand Paul's lead over Democrat Jack Conway is down to just two points after leading by as much as 15%.

To be sure, the electorate is frustrated, angry and disenchanted with politicians on both sides of the aisle. The economy still faces myriad challenges, and unemployment remains unacceptably high. But the polls still show voters' preference for Democrats when the question is who can better handle the economy and the nation's main problems. With 34 days still to go before the midterm elections, Republicans would be wise not to uncork the champagne just yet.