It's Over. But Let's Just Hope We're Only Talking About the Democratic Nomination

"I'm never giving up, and I'm never giving in." That was the promise delivered Tuesday night by Sen. Hillary Clinton in her victory speech after having won the Kentucky primary in a 35% landslide. But as expected, she lost to Sen. Barack Obama by a solid 16% margin in the Oregon primary. The bottom-line? It's over. Chappaqua or bust. The proverbial fat lady has just sung her final note. While she may indeed fight until the very (no longer bitter) end, which she should for many reasons, the heretofore valiant campaign of Clinton, with this week's contests, unofficially comes to a close. The only thing that could have saved her was an upset in Oregon.

Welcome to 2008, the historic year in which a black candidate will represent one of the two major parties in the general election. Gives you goosebumps, especially when you think just 40-odd years ago blacks were being sprayed in the streets with high-pressure fire hoses, or refused service at "white-only" restaurants, or worse, beaten and killed simply for being black. America, we've come a long way, baby. Or have we?

Obama faces a mountainous uphill battle if he expects to become the 44th president of the Unites States. True, he has won many states, attracted many new voters into the process, and has a unique message of hope and change that's clearly resonated with many. But the simple truth is, America is still quite a racist country, as evidenced by the exit polling in Kentucky, Indiana, West Virginia, Pennsylvania and Ohio...states with large swaths of rural, blue-collar, white working class voters. Half of Kentucky's Democrats say they will not vote for Obama in the general election if he's the nominee. Similar numbers in the other states. About 20% say race is the factor. The other 80% are likely too embarrassed to publicly admit their racial prejudice.

Which is why Obama has a problem. A big problem. Kentucky and West Virginia are not the problem directly. As they did in 2000 and 2004, they are sure to vote red in November. But, what's significant, and can't be ignored, is that these states are a microcosm of key swing states like Pennsylvania and Ohio. States that Obama must win in the general election if he's to become president. Even NBC's Tim Russert, the well-respected pundit who weeks ago declared that it was over and that Obama would be the nominee, said that Tuesday's results "means Senator Obama has a lot of work to do." And the million-dollar question is, can he do it? Can he win over the so-called "Appalachian" voter? Can he pick up the white working class between now and November? Can he convince people who didn't vote for him because he's black to vote for him against the GOP's presumptive nominee, the very white Sen. John McCain, in November? I'm not so sure Obama can overturn centuries of deep-rooted racism, generations of racial intolerance, in just five months. I'm not so sure Obama will "automatically" pick up Clinton's supporters once things "settle down" after he's officially nominated...which is the picture his campaign and his supporters like to paint.

I still fear the scenario I first laid out weeks ago: that voters will give landslide victories to the Dems in the House and Senate, giving them an even greater majority, while putting the 'more experienced, moderate, battle-tested, tough-on-terrorism war-hero' McCain in the White House as a practical balance of power. I hope I'm wrong. I don't think I could stomach another heartbreaking presidential election where the Dems masterfully snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Comments

[peorgietirebiter]

Do you want to win or do you prefer playing the victim? There's nothing admirable about reserving a seat at the "I told you so" table. Why not just get in the fight and live or die like a Democrat.
I assure you, once you've landed your first punch, you'll step outside your head and see the beauty of the brawl.

[zaneblue]

Clinton's NAFTA problem is a helluva lot bigger than Obama's racist problem.

[missjabez]

"The valiant campaign of Clinton"? Where have you been the last couple of months?

[peorgietirebiter]

thank you, it's time for Andy to join the valiant campaign in progress.

[KillTheMessenger]

"...I hope I'm wrong."

Yes, you are. And YES, we can.

[trevor01]

You aren't wrong, neither are you politically correct. To be correct you need to support Obama and be in the forefront of those lemmings leaping. This is no longer about who gets power but about who can claim to be holier than thou. Count me out. On GE day when the map is solidly republican as it will be with Obama as nominee, no one will even be able to remember why we were all so stupid.

[KillTheMessenger]

Now look who is holier than though now... wouldn't that be you?

[mcw123]

Disgusting article. Keep regurgitating Clinton talking points without adding a single new point to the debate. Pray on fear. Don't bother with real journalism, like covering our potential war with Iran.

[AuntSam]

mcw123 - Thank you.

[burnt]

"Obama faces a mountainous uphill battle.."

Yes, but only because a once unified party was intentionally divided and destroyed by a candidate who, using Republican tactics, intentionally inflicted that damage after she realized that the Clinton Party could not possibly win... so very long ago. That mountain to which you refer is one that was manufactured by Clinton... the Republican Party certainly hasn't done much of anything yet.

"Which is why Obama has a problem. A big problem."

An the problem? Spinners like you Andy, who pretend to support Obama now that your delusion has been stripped bare, but who in actual fact continue to sow doubt and show complete disrespect for the campaign that Obama has waged to date. YOU ARE THE PROBLEM. It's not too late to join the Democratic Party. We will take back this country. We CAN play an active and vital role in this effort, but the choice is entirely yours.
Your actions are transparent.

[Jimbo62]

The key is going to be registration. We need to overwhelm the racists with new, young, progressive voters. Start the registration drives now.

[dadumdee]

Black people have made it through slavery, Jim Crow, and continual oppression. My bet is that they will be fine. White people, on the other hand, lost their motherf*cking minds during the Great Depression, 70's Oil Crisis, and most recently, 9/11. They don't respond well to crisis situations because their privileges have largely protected them. The White folks who will do the best under a John McCain lead crisis (war, famine, natural disaster, poverty - take your pick ) are the poor, undereducated, racist White folks being coddled currently and being misidentified as 'working class'. They aren't working, they are welfare class. It's difficult for true working class White people to be racist because guess who they have to interact with and end up befriending at work...you got it, people of all races. Working class Whites are the ones with the most to lose. They have the most to lose, starting with their jobs. The racist White welfare receipients are going to cost the real working class Whites their futures.

[JimR]

I was going to respond to your comment in detail, but I am too busy FREAKING OUT over gas prices!!!!

[dadumdee]

If the majority of voters are that stupid, then thats what we get in our democracy. I'm tired of Democrats trying to play this presumptuous election strategy. Our candidates were superior to Bush in 2000 and 2004 and we lost because people were tricked by 'compassion conservatism' in 2000 and scared to f*cking death in 2004. Our candidates are not the issue. It's our knowledge of history, debate formats, political coverage, and insufficient voting system that is the problem. Let's try better educating our electorate at every level instead of shamelessly appealing to ignorance, racism, sexism, regionalism, religious seperatism, etc. If we live in a country that bankrupts itself (but enriches the war whores ) in a decades long foreign occupation because a majority of Americans are racist, well then, blame and confront your racist neighbors. Confront this racist primary coverage. Confront yourselves. It's going to happen sooner or later. I think that once 'working class' Whites realize that they just as finacially oppressed as racial minorities, we'll see some change. We're almost there with the lowly dollar, housing crisis, and exponentially rising oil prices, but obviously we're not quite there. Blacks and Whites are now uniting in the fact that we're now almost equally as far from the 'American Dream', and it's not because Black people have made economic gains either. If White people want to be foolish enough to throw away their futures because of racism, then the joke will be on them.

[peorgietirebiter]

exactly, I don't want to move to mediocrity for the sake of a few crumbs.

[KillTheMessenger]

The man who gives in to racists is a racist himself. If you are suggesting that we need not upset our racist friends in this country by sending a black man to the White House, you can just go and join them. You are not on our team.

[Bill3rdterm]

I have a question about racism and politics. Let's say a voter, thinks both candidate are equal on policy and stances etc. Basically they think it's a toss up, and they decide to vote for the person who looks more like them. Would you consider that racism? I'm just curious to see how some people think in these terms.

Hell I've been guilty of it, in hiring employees. Not based on skin color, but on backround or where they were from etc. Just a couple of months ago, I had two applicants who had the same qualifications, I rated both pretty equal in the interview but I choose the guy who grew up in the same state that I did. Granted that isn't the same as skin color, but I can assume that some white people would vote for the white candidate given the choose between two equal candidates One black and white, because they are more used to white people. I think the same can be said for a black voter, choosing betweent two equal candidates ONE white and One black. Again this is based on the voters perspective that both candidate are equal in there minds in terms of policies etc.

[trevor01]

Rare honesty and insight. Thank you.

[bajanyvie]

Absolutely agree. I am a black woman and I think that what you describe is a natural reaction. I use a similar analogy to explain difference between racism and this natural reaction to my daughter. That all things being equal people usually choose the person who is more relatable to them. So to break it down even further, an Italian American may chose another Italian American over a German American, all things being equal. So often what manifests itself as racism is not. It's just that a majority of people in positions of power are white so the effects may be felt more in the black community.

On the other hand, if all things are not equal and you go against your better interests, to choose someone who looks like you simply for that fact alone, then I think that is racism. Hillary and Barack have similar policies that are fundamentally different from Mccain's. I think there are definitely elements of racism if Hillary supporters decide to vote for McCain over Obama.

[dadumdee]

Thank you for your honesty. What you did is called the 'like me' error, and if it was based on race it would be called 'discrimination' (I work in HR). However, since you are mature and introspective and brave enough to challenge yourself, in other words, a mature adult, I would like to continue this impressive growth by recommending that you take Harvard's implicit bias study. What you just described is natural, if not innate, but what you challenged yourself to realize is what separates humans from animals. Thank you for valuing logic over emotions and reminding of why I love America so much! God Bless!!!

https://implicit.harvard.edu/implicit/demo/takeatest.html

[patrice37]

Good lord, another post about how we must win over the knuckle-dragging racists. Thanks, Andrew, for your concern about Pennsylvania. But the demographics you wish on us simply aren't there. Obama is polling consistently higher than McCain, mostly because of his whopping lead in Philly and suburbs. That's the growing part of the state. Our Appalachian corners are shrinking. So cut it out with the worries about widows of retired miners who believe that Obama is a Muslim. Nothing we say is gonna dissuade them from voting for the white guy. Let's focus on the young and the living, and getting them to the polls.

[BigMike75]

Andy makes many valid arguments, but also implies that we should just accept this notion as fact, or that Hillary would have an easier time. I have to laugh at people that try to handicap the general election, based on primary results. Firstly, Obama doesn't have a problem with "working class whites", he has a problem with a pocket of working class whites in the Appalachians and rust belt parts of this country. Obama doesn't have to "win" that vote, Democrats never do. He just has to make enough inroads, and get enough of that vote to be successful. What Andy also fails to mention is that Obama will have a 50 state infrastructure never seen before. He will bring millions of new voters and record turnout across a swath of demographics to the fold. I live in Brooklyn NY, and speaking with community leaders and those expeirenced with political campaigns, they believe as do I, that this election will generate the largest African American turnout in American political history. There are racists that Obama will never convince to vote for him, just like there are sexists that Hillary will never convince to vote for her. The key is to offset that by geting record turnout across other demographics.

[MSaldana]

"The key is to offset that by geting record turnout across other demographics."


BigMike75: In the context of the electoral college deciding who wins in November, it doesn't matter HOW many Utahs, and Idahos, and Montanas Obama has won: you know he won't win those states and many others in the general election.

I also live in Brooklyn, NY and I have been a consistent supporter of Senator Clinton. I have neither liked nor trusted Barack and the hoopla surrounding his candidacy. But I know that no protest vote on my part will have the slightest effect. Just as Barack ain't gonna' win all those western and southern red states, in the context again of the electoral college, he ain't gonna' lose New York.

Oh, and I'm no racist -- I just prefer Senator Clinton, and do not trust Obama. All you supporters can cry until the cows come home about continuing support for Senator Clinton. But, it'd be a lot more mature to come to terms with the fact that many of us, for what we consider good and sufficient reason, prefer Senator Clinton and have no desire to see her candidacy end until she is mathematically eliminated. Try and accept that not everyone is "blinded by the light."

-MS

[thetruthbringer]

Sure...good for you. Just remember that in every poll, Clinton is considered significantly less trust worthy than Obama. With Clinton, we have an example of a blatant lie about Bosnia. With Obama, you have innuendos and guilt by association tactics which do not prove anything. If you can't trust Obama, the problem is with you, not him.

You shouldn't talk about trust. Just stick to "experience" in your arguments, because Hillary Clinton is a pathological liar.

[MSaldana]

Look, I live in a VERY Liberal community in Brooklyn -- wouldn't have it any other way! And, I've voted for African Americans - David Dinkins (twice for NYC mayor) and Yvette Clarke for congresswoman (characterized as the MOST liberal member of the House of Representatives). So I don't need to prove my credentials.

I just don't care for Barack Hussein Obama. And I - and many others, I'm sure - are just getting a little tired of being called racist just because we have NO INTEREST in hopping on the Barack bandwagon! You don't hear us calling you sexist for not supporting Senator Clinton, do youo?

-MS

[mcw123]

Even if I were to buy your inane argument from Brooklyn about the pulse of America, how exactly does Clinton plan to win the general? So she steals the nomination, riding on a wave of racist fear. Will her natural charm win over the young, the educated, the black and everyone else who makes more than $50K a year? Every day, she tells us we don't matter and neither do our votes.

I am an independent who leans democrat. I live in NC, a purple state that leans red. I am female. I would sooner chew off my own hand than cast a vote for her.

WTF, I don't plan to have an abortion any time soon. I make a good salary and can easily afford my home. I don't have kids and my husband is too old to go to war. I can ride out McCain. He at least has some semblence of authenticity, and unlike her, he actually has experience.

[desertdweller]

Of the many Democrats in Kentucky and elsewhere that won't vote for Obama, most will probably stay home on election day. While many are too embarrassed to publicly admit their racial prejudice, there will be significant numbers that tilt towards Obama at the last minute, but are too embarrassed to tell their friends. I live in a very conservative community that went 2:1 for Bush in both 2000 and 2004. I know of many that voted Bush in 2000 and very privately for Kerry in 2004. Embarrassment cuts both ways, I guess.

[PixelMarx]

"... what's significant, and can't be ignored, is that these states are a microcosm of key swing states like Pennsylvania, Ohio and Indiana." Hmmm... how in the heck can these states be a microcosm of swing states? They might be a viral legion that's spread from the rural areas of these swing states, but they're not in a whole, an indicator of Pennsylvania, Ohio and Indiana. If they were, then Hillary would have taken those states by huge margins. Instead, these are the states that when a poll comes out saying 20% of American's would never vote for a black man, they live in these states.

[SaltySaltillo]

Nonsense, PixelMarx - Obama will win PA. He will win the urban centers of OH like Cincinatti, Columbus and Cleveland. He will win the urban centers of IN. And he will have to work hard to make significant inroads in the other areas. That is all. The Clinton Republicans (let's call them what they are... they haven't voted Democrat for anyone not named "Clinton" in decades) are only the dominant demographic when you get into states with no major cities to speak of, like WV and KY. Dems don't need WV to win any more. Its electoral college stature has been shrinking for 40 years.