One Year After Election Day: The Verdict on Obama

As America struggles to recover from an economic meltdown and is engulfed in two long-standing wars, the burning question now is, Has President Barack Obama done a good job in office since his historic election one year ago, or is he destined to suffer the same fate of Jimmy Carter and George H. W. Bush as unmemorable, ineffective, unpopular one-term chief-executives?

I'm not going to get into Iraq and Afghanistan, wars which Obama's inherited and which have raged on for for six and eight years respectively. There's no quick fix, and it's going to take him some time to sort out strategy and future direction. It's simply too early to judge him here.

But let's take a look at the economy. When Obama's predecessor George W. Bush took office in 2001, unemployment was at a respectable 4.2%. When he left office, it had nearly doubled to 7.6%. It stands now at 9.8%. Former president Bill Clinton left Bush with a $281 billion budget surplus, yet Bush left Obama with a $1.2 trillion deficit. The deficit is now $1.4 trillion. The national debt handed to Bush in 2001 was $5.7 trillion, and grew to $10.6 trillion by the time he left in 2008. It's currently $11.9 trillion. What does this all mean? A couple of things: first it says that Obama's economy has not materially worsened since he took office, especially as compared to the bashing it got under Bush. Next, and more importantly, it proves that Obama's $787-billion stimulus plan worked.

What's critical in the analysis of Obama's performance is perspective. Let's not forget where we were last year at this time. The proverbial sky was falling. America's financial system was on the verge of collapse, a crisis not seen since the Great Depression. There was an unprecedented global economic meltdown, and for the first time in 75 years, Americans contemplated withdrawing their money from banks for fear of widespread default. Credit froze, borrowing ceased, and all economic activity stopped. One year later there's appreciable GDP growth, businesses are optimistic, earnings are up, inventories are down, orders are rising, credit is flowing, borrowing has resumed and stock markets have rallied. And, monthly job losses have gone down from an average 750,000 when Bush left office to the low-mid 200's. On the economy, it's pretty safe to say that Obama and his policies have been highly effective.

On another domestic front, health care, Obama has not been so successful, largely due to his own indecisiveness and unwillingness to wage a bloody fight to push through his plan. Also, timing is everything, and with the struggling economy, war and terrorism to contend with, Obama's made a huge miscalculation and error in judgment in taking on the health-care issue so early in his presidency. It's served as a major distraction, and has handed Republicans something they can sink their venomous teeth into; something that, unlike the problems he's inherited, is all his. He has no one to blame here but himself. Exacerbating the struggle is his misguided quest to be bi-partisan despite a Republican minority that has zero desire and intent to help him pass reform on any level. A party that's hell-bent on bringing down his administration at every turn. He's been straddling the fence, trying to make everyone happy, including his enemies across the aisle. Consequently, he's lost control of the issue.

Nine months after taking the oath of office, while it's still way too early to label his presidency a success or failure, it is fair to conclude that he's definitely on the right track, and as far as the economy is concerned, he's brought America back from the dead. For that he deserves credit. On the foreign stage, given all that Bush left him, he also deserves a little more time to intelligently assess strategy for Iraq and Afghanistan. We've already had eight years of catastrophic military ineptitude. It's actually quite refreshing to have a president who's carefully weighing all options before committing troops to battle. But these are definitely now his wars to wage and/or end, and time is running out on his honeymoon. He needs to formulate a plan, and soon.

So, one year after the election, what do you think Candidate Obama would think of President Obama? Tweet your response (our Twitter hashtag is #OneYearLater), or post it in the comments section.

 

Comments

[joebaggadonuts]

Nice pic of it all here:

http://www.salon.com/comics/tomo/2009/10/13/tomo

If he cannot get out of this vignette, we are all lost. It is not just his loss, but our hope, our dreams, our future that is lost.

To put a better spin on it, if it were McSame/Palin in office, things would be worse. But so what? We asked for change.

[TyneCrescent]

President Obama has done an outstanding job in his first 10 months trying to govern and lead. Some of the pitfalls obvious, some, not so much.
The tasks he inherited are many, and their are always going to be cries from those who think theirs is the biggest priority and hasn't received the attention it deserves. It comes with the territory, you can't please all the people, all the time. I think he has tried too much to do so.
No president has inherited the quagmire of issues President Obama has, nor the venomous obstructionism and will to see his administration fail, as exists in politics today. Not only from other politicians, but fragmented, sometimes unhinged, sections of the populace a well. But he has held fast and firm, is moving the country on the best path as the circumstances dictate and will allow. And we are moving forward, in his first 10 months, much more than we were at any time during the last eight years.
As for a grade, its too early to tell, only history will judge that. The future looks much, much brighter.

[joebaggadonuts]

Krugman's view is less optimistic.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/09/opinion/09krugman.html?em

I am trying to get past the sense of his being right, and too late.

[emcd]

Imagine if the new president had insisted on the sweeping and immediate changes that many of you are advocating. In addition to the immediate howling from the right, we would probably also hear from a good portion of the moderate center. The backlash would almost guarantee a fairly violent shift of the electorate in the opposite direction as soon as possible (i.e. 2010).

No, better to begin an incremental shift back toward government as beneficial to the people and away from the old Reagan "government is the problem" narrative the Republicans have been so successful in painting.

The majority of the American people do not want the pendulum moving violently from side to side, or stuck at either one extreme or the other. They like it swinging gently in the center third.

[joebaggadonuts]

When the pendulum is falling on our heads, we would prefer it be shifted away to the side, please.

[nexxtep54]

When considering what Obama has accomplished in one year it would be wise to credit his unprecedented campaign , for consider where everyone would be had the Republicans won another term. War, in Iran, ?? making overtures against Venezuela and Cuba,?? war in north Korea ?? missile defences in Poland ?? theocracy over politics ?? no discussion of health care ?? Palin drooling over McCains medical prognosis. etc.etc.

[davidly]

Maybe in the world of political analysis one can make the claim that the "proverbial sky was falling" but isn't anymore, but given the proverbial nature of that sky, I'd say the case is much stronger that it is still falling.

It seems that before all else, the analyst in question has gone to great pains to grade on a curve, based upon what a crappy homework assignment it was. But you can't look the other way and fail to grade the answers on the sheet.

Moreover, if I may continue to do a little grading on this poster: In the second paragraph, you need to swap the order of the countries mentioned, or the year-figures 6 and 8 - or at least remove the word "respectively".

As far as the content of the post goes, redo your analysis with a view towards reality, and I'll consider giving it a grade. If you're gonna post numbers that you claim prove that the stimulus "worked", best not use ones that prove otherwise.

[Andy Ostroy - Huffpost Blogger]

Thanks for the catch in paragraph 2. Change made. As for your other comments, I'm sorry I'm letting facts get in the way of your opinions. See, I always like to work with statistics, and the data I supplied in my piece clearly (and factually) illustrate where the economy was when Bush took office, left office and where it is now. You can spin things however you like to fit your particular political leanings, but the stats speak for themselves. That's what I love about those pesky little stats. You can't argue with 'em. You can spin 'em, but they are what they are.

[davidly]

No, the stats don't speak for themselves; they are subject to analysis, and you don't even bother to analyze them other than quixotically to come to the conclusion that the "economy has not materially worsened" in the last year, and even then you set it against the worst standard possible.

Now, you can spin all you want, hint at my political leanings (what might they be, I wonder), or you can humor those of us who are too obtuse to understand your clear illustration in paragraph three.

[december30]

Please listen to Mr. Ostroy.

[shutterbabe]

I needed some clarity this morning, concrete words, hard facts to assimilate regarding the status of our country. I am guilty of some impatience with Obama especially regarding health care reform. When he pronounced his ownership of this pressing issue, I believed him. Perhaps he did miscalculate how difficult it would be to create and pass a reform. I am so anxious, hungry for something to happen in this realm, that I am losing my perspective.

This article gave me pause, the realization that I have been unfair in some of my expectations of Obama. I hate the wars, some of his Mr. Nice Guy demeanors, and the glitz that surrounds the President's persona.

Andy Ostoy's article was a good one. I intend to wait a little longer, keeping these stats in my head. Let the man do his job without the day to day dissections of character, party lines,
and anger for anger's sake.

[WorldofTomorrow420]

"It's actually quite refreshing to have a president who's carefully weighing all options before committing troops to battle"
It's also not at all refreshing to have a president who's carefully weighed all options before deciding to continue to kidnap and torture detainees in Bagram and foreign countries.

[jsgaetano]

In GHWB's defense, he really had three terms.

[confuseddemocrat]

Finally someone has the guts to say it ...Obama's biggest miscalculation was tackling the healthcare reform first ...... BRAVO

Had Obama put forth aggressive policies to help struggling homeowners and had he pushed an aggressive jobs creation bill, a jobs training bill and a financial reform bill that ensured consumer protections, provided easy credit and capital to small businesses and punished those who destroyed the economy then:

1) he could have called the GOP on their obstructionism by demonstrating that they (GOP) are more willing to allow millions to suffer the indignity of unemployment and financial collapse.....

2) Americans would have viewed Obama as not being a corporate shill and as being more interested in Wall street than mainstreet.....

And only after that, would Americans be more amenable to HC reform because the argument could have been framed that health care reform was/is part of an overall strategy to bolster the American middle and working classes

[gd h]

My concern about the stimulus from the beginning was that there is hardly any mention of "jobs" or "job training". Instead, just some platitudes (creating or saving jobs-absurdly impossible to measure). So now that the money and political capital is gone, he's going to throw us a few bones? Maybe? Please? Just a little stack of breadcrumbs for individuals who need jobs and for small businesses?

[joebaggadonuts]

That might have been what JFK might have done. He's no JFK. And he's no FDR either.

I just hope he knows how to steer well enough to keep us off the edge of the cliff(s) as we go careening down the winding mountain road with no brakes.

[WilliamL]

Your decision to side step his approach/handling of both Iraq/Afghanistan- is surprising. I believed prior to his taking the oath that his handling of the wars would directly impact his ability to govern, advance a domestic agenda and define his presidency.

I did not, do not, expect him to wave a wand and make it all better when it comes to our Foreign Policy directly related to wars in the region. I expected a greater sense of urgency and presence as a Commander. I would have been impressed had he called immediate meetings of both houses regarding both wars, brought together leadership of both houses as he did recently instead of nine/ten months into his administration. He may have inherited both wars but knew both wars were underway when he announced his Presidency and needed to be prepared to immediately confront Congress, the American people, and to define the entire situation, instead of carry over.

The over emphases on his personal life has been offensive and irrelevant in respect to those in the military and their families. For men and women on their second, third, fourth tour of both theaters, personal activities of the CIC are of no concern and/or consequence esp. to Dependents-esp. children who no longer have parents and/or have parents that have been gone so long they no longer remember their face.

His legacy will be a direct result of his perfomance on both fronts-Ira­q/Afghanis­tan-domest­ic/foriegn­.

[mj2930]

I believe that without a forward movement of progressive ideas, we are all at risk of being plunged into another Dark Age. The fact that someone like GWB was re-elected shows the small minds of many Americans. The country has shown hope and promise and Obama is not getting fair treatment from the Wing Nut Brigade. Please give Obama the time to correct the many failures of GWB and Republican ideology. We do not exist in a vacuum. All Americans have to think of our future. The tea baggers are insane to think that taxes are going to go away. The conservatives certainly like using public roads, bridges, etc. The conservative midwest, south are the first to scream for federal aid when floods hit. Yet they cannot grasp that the reason there is federal disaster aid is because of a progressive idea. Wake up progressives and fight back!!!

[elmoor]

Second that...
No matter if you think change has been fast enough, Obama has been the new direction we needed. I think we just failed to see, as screwed up as we thought we were, it was actually much worse than we thought. Obama's load was much larger than any of us anticipated....

[Easyrollins]

Your use of the term "dark Age" aptly describes the moment of time we are trying to emerge from. Will we plummet back, I hope not, and I don't see how we can, given the mess we are trying to climb out of. But in any age of enlightenment, new ideas and people must emerge. There a too many of the old guard now within the halls of power.

[longtalldrink]

"Old guards"...like Lieberman. Ugh.

[Easyrollins]

The President has shown a mastery of political moves, even if opponents find it hard to fathom. He has done more in nine months than the last three Republican administrations with more political adversaries, on both sides of the aisle. Most of it goes unreported or under reported. Any thinking and not bias individual can see that he has reduced the republicans to a mess politically, moved health care further than it has ever gone before, passed bills that the Republicans are to distracted and disorganize to oppose. His moves are delft in that they must be done in a manner that leaves the oppositions name calling but not focus and offering no real alternative. Anyone calling them self a able to political analyst should be able to see and should admire where politically Obama has left his opponents. In a untenable political position.

[emcd]

Imagine if the new president had insisted on the sweeping and immediate changes that many of you are advocating. In addition to the immediate howling from the right, we would probably also hear from a good portion of the moderate center. The backlash would almost guarantee a fairly violent shift of the electorate in the opposite direction as soon as possible (i.e. 2010).

No, better to begin an incremental shift back toward government as beneficial to the people and away from the old Reagan "government is the problem" narrative the Republicans have been so successful in painting.

The majority of the American people do not want the pendulum moving violently from side to side, or stuck at either one extreme or the other. They like it swinging gently in the center third.

[Flavor]

My overall grade for this president won't be given until the end of the year, and some may think because of reading my blogg on huffpost that flavor is going to give him all A's. Not one president in my forty years of being able to vote did one president get that and probably never will. I want to put out this though he will get a high grade from flavor as for as trying to mend the gap with foreign countries. We were hated around the world, and they did not mind displaying the burning of the American flag freely. You were accurate as for as saying there is no quick fix as for as the wars he inheirted, because my belief at this time is there is no easy solution to any war, people think different in those other countries and they feel that this is the only way they can get their point across, and that is to blow up everybody and that includes themselves. Thanks for the article.

[jasper48]

If he were to cauterize the money bleed of the wars,
the collateral effect on the economy would far outweigh any
bashing he might take from the Rethuglicans.

Just sayin'.