West Virginia? Take Me Home, Country Roads...

In a year full of surprises to the conventional political wisdom, the greatest story yet may be unfolding in West Virginia, where Senator Obama's campaign is rocketing to competitiveness in a nearly all-white state that went comfortably for George W. Bush in the last two elections. Despite consistent polling showing Senator McCain with a comfortable lead among registered voters, a recent ARG telephone poll of 600 such voters showed Obama with a shocking 8 point lead. Although this might be easily dismissed as an outlier, internal McCain polls (that remain closely held within the campaign) show McCain with a narrow 3-5 point lead - down from a 15 point cushion three weeks ago. On top of that, McCain's numbers have fallen below 50% in the Mountain State for the first time since his campaign began to poll there. RealClearPolitics.com has moved West Virginia from "Strong McCain" to "Toss Up".

If accurate, this could be the biggest shocker on an electoral map that has held reasonably close to expectation -- one that has featured fairly predictable battleground states, with a few new ones sprinkled in due to demographic shifts and a plummeting economy.

But West Virginia was never supposed to be in reach for Obama -- even with the enthusiastic support of its living political legend, Robert C. Byrd. Obama got absolutely spanked by Hillary Clinton long after their primary had been all but decided and has had trouble winning the support of so-called blue-collar, white rural voters all across Appalachia. Despite West Virginia's historic swing state role, the Obama campaign has invested in only four staff and put no money into paid media, figuring the state too great a challenge and the reward too slim (five Electoral College votes) to merit the effort.

However, an interesting and totally unexpected phenomenon is taking place on the ground in West Virginia. Perhaps in retaliation against an omnipresent and loosely coordinated disinformation campaign featuring vital attacks on Obama's religion, his "associations" with Wright, Ayers and Rezko, and the repeated charges that Obama will personally disarm the gun-loving Mountaineers, State Democratic activists and labor leaders have fought back with an energy unforeseeable as recently as a month ago. Although many in the West Virginia party leadership were heavily invested in Hillary Clinton's campaign, they have swung surprisingly and swiftly into action for Obama.

Obama campaign officials have privately expressed surprise and delight at noting that the labor unions in particular, perhaps in repugnance toward Republican economic policies, have taken the fight to McCain with twice the vigor they showed four years ago for John Kerry. Recently, United Mine Workers President Cecil Roberts expressed deep concern over the NRA spreading disinformation among union members about Obama's position on the Second Amendment. UMWA also took to the airwaves to denounce the NRA's effort and draw attention to their support for Obama along with their repudiation of the NRA's tactics.

And it looks as though the groundswell may be catching the attention of the candidates as well. On Thursday morning, Obama had a ten minute radio interview with WDGG, Huntington, WV, and Portsmouth, OH's, #1 morning show. Today, Senator Clinton held a rally in Charleston, WV, and sources indicate that larger campaign events may be in the works. CNN even reported today that Governor Palin was going to take a bus tour across the state to try to lock it down. The report proved false (Palin is landing in Huntington on Sunday to go to an Ohio event and spending the night in WV), but the fact that CNN took the possibility seriously speaks volumes -- West Virginia is officially, and surprisingly, in play.

Comments

[SENATORCALLENBOWE]

THE CLASS OF THE NEW GENERATION IS LISTENING TO FREEBIRD ALL THE WAY TO THE TOP :)

[jealousmonk]

Why is the sub-text of McCain's anger and his campaign's attacks?

Heh, heh, he's black.
We're white. He's black.
Folks, He's black!
Are you blind? He's BLACK!
WE'RE WHITE! HE'S BLACK!
Who are these people? Aren't they white like us?
"He's, uh, black, isn't he?" No, no, he's a decent family man (but he's black!).

[wanttruth]

LMAO!!! I loved this funny post! Good job, jealousmonk.

[IndependenceDame]

I'm originally from WV. When WV went for "W" in 2000, I thought someone had spiked the water. When it went for "W" again in 2004, I was convinced the water had been nuked. Gore and Kerry had blown off WV as insignificant. Regrets? Sanity has returned or the water has cleared. If Obama would go to WV or send Bill Clinton on his behalf to campaign with Gov. Manchin, III, he will carry WV. My home county, according to Mom who's campaigning hard there for Obama, says it is solidly blue, and it's about time.

[davidnwpa09]

Senators Obama and Biden have an excellent chance of taking a surprising upset and winning in West Virginia. Cities such as Charleston, Morgantown, Beckley, and Wheeling are all in play. As long as the major cities go to Obama, he will take the state. My wife is from WV and we do visit as often as we can.

I read with considerable interest today an article on CNN.com that suggests Pennsylvania (my state) must garner 75 percent of the vote in Philadelphia to keep PA blue. Governor Rendell was the one who put forth this observation. With due respect to the Governor, Pennsylvania has considerably more territory than just Philadelphia. For a decisive victory in PA, Obama/Biden need to win counties such as Erie and Allegany too.

I mention all this about PA because a larger lesson can be learned here. Not only is Robert Byrd an immensely popular Senator, but Joe Manchin is a popular Governor who could spend some of his political clout to turn WV as blue as PA has been for a few elections now. The key is to win in the major cities, and between the Clintons, Byrd, and Joe Manchin, WV can do it.

[JNail]

Georgia is in play as well. We are only down 3 here now. The Same poll had us down 18 after the RNCC...so if WV and GA are in play so could SC, AR, MS and a few others,,,,even MT...

Yes We Will!!

[redsongia]

Is that because the Governor went on vacation for nearly a month while you all had to suck it up and deal with the gas shortage?

Red states have to go blue every now and then, regardless of beliefs, (and vice versa) other wise, these bums get pretty comfy earning 160k as our "do nothing" government. That's a pretty high ticket price for laissez-faire.

[f4skyhawk]

I read where a man driving a truck and wearing camo outfit with a shotgun rack remarkes, "I like McCain but I like my job more"!! This is the sentiment driving this election that has the capacity to trupm race, negative attacks, and all of the fear mongering. I ray that people stop voting their fears but instead their interests.....

[jeannie35]

If Byrd is able to get out and campaign for Obama, he should. Obama needs his help. Hillary and Bill should also take a WVA tour for Obama.

[UCSD101]

At this point - laughable = Bill and HILLARY.

We - the “insurgents” for Obama-Biden against McCain and the “pain” Palin will get the job done.

[MissCupcake]

Hillary was here Friday.

[jeannie35]

As a native West Virginian, nothing could make me prouder than WVA going for Obama. WV's people are used by politicians. How's about "bitter" and "clinging to their guns" - completely blown out of proportion in hopes of swaying WV's voters. I would love to be able to believe their cheap shots did not work.

[kirsch59]

Obama would rock the world and put pressure on McCain's campaign by having Obama/Biden, Robert C. Byrd and the Clintons spend a day campaigning together in the reddest parts of WV.

Get fired up!

[MissCupcake]

We don't live in caves here. We have TV, fancy 'lectric lights, we wear shoes, and we have the internets and use the Google. Most importantly we vote.
So, instead of the smarmy comments about the people of WV, why not just say thanks to us. We all play for the same team. Some of you folks sound like you belong at a McCain rally, and that's sad!
It will be much easier for a Nov victory if we all band together.
I bet my 72 year old mother has spent more time registering new voters for Obama than some of you!


http://www.pollster.com/polls/wv/08-wv-pres-ge-mvo.php

[JerseyGirl4Obama]

And, she is doing a beautiful thing! You are correct in that we ALL need to ban together to further the cause of the American people. We need change and we must have change now. Positive change. It doesn't matter whether it's New York, New Jersey, West Virginia or North Carolina.

It's who you think will be better to help heal our nation and our international relationships and get us on a better path to the future. I am not fooled into thinking it will be easy because the present administration is leaving one heck of a mess for us to deal with.

Obama-Biden
2008-2016 (they will need two terms)

[Colmore]

Please thank your mother, and all the other volunteers. It is going to pay off come November.

[f4skyhawk]

yes indeed please do

[pumpkin]

I'm proud of West Virginia, just as I'm proud of my former home, North Carolina.

And, hey, my new home of Colorado is doing pretty well, too.

[UCSD101]

You are so right and every time I see and read a post like yours; it makes me smile and I do say thank you.

I'm glad I read your message: it was meant to be, I suppose. :))

Hugs and thank you.............

We - the “insurgents” for Obama-Biden against McCain and the “pain” Palin will get the job done.

[KiwisCanFly]

Thanks MissCupcake, all the WV folk and your mum too!

[grumpygranny66]

Congratulation!! West Virginia, keep up the good work, there are a lot of states watching you.

I live in Georgia, and we are fighting like h ell to make this a blue state, and we are almost there. Because, we were/are also, known as a racist state, we have to fight even harder. Hope we can both celebrate turning blue on 11/04/08.

Let's fight like there is no tomorrow. Ain't no stopping us now!!!

[AceInTheHole]

I'm just waiting to see a pickup truck with two riffles and a shotgun in the rear window rack ,and a bumper sticker that reads HILLBILLIES FOR OBAMA or RENECKS FOR OBAMA .

[UCSD101]

I saw a blog somewhere on this; from some people in Nebraska had signs up saying, "REDNECKS for OBAMA".

I love it............. LOL

We - the “insurgents” for Obama-Biden against McCain and the “pain” Palin will get the job done.

[pumpkin]

I couldn't believe it when Georgia turned pink on the electoral college map.

Congratulations! Keep fighting the good fight. The world is watching.

[kyria]

Even if the Republicans are willing to risk riots in the streets to steal another election on their no-paper-trail e-voting machines, I'm still proud that the majority of American voters are willing to look past their prejudices., even in West Virginia.

[Phylmom]

Even in WV?? Somehow I don't think that's a compliment.

[Whatashame]

WV you are voting for your jobs and your future. McCain is a WAR MONGER. All he wants to do is win so he can go to war with IRAN. We can't afford another war.

[Phylmom]

I keep trying to point out that West Virginians are no more racist than any place else. Look at the comments being made at McCain and Palin rallies. Those aren't West Virginians saying those things. So why aren't those people being called hillbillies? The main reason West Virginia was so strong for Clinton in the primary is because Bill Clinton is extremely popular. He is the closest to an Appalachian president there has been. Hillary would have done well no matter who was running. And West Virginia has traditionally been a Democratic state. Most of my liberal friends voted for Hillary and are now supporting Obama. My Obama sign used to be the only one I saw in a yard. Now they are all over.

[grata2ude]

People that use labels for other people are either misinformed or just plain ignorant. I'm from Pa and the videos of that hate spewed is by no means a reflection of myself or most people from Pa.

I think Obama will win Pa. It will be close but I am pretty sure he will win.

We are all in this together.

[UCSD101]

Love your post and thank you for writing it.

OBAMA for President – BIDEN for VP.

As it is we must remain the “insurgents” for Obama-Biden against McCain and the “pain” Palin.

[livingontop]

Just remember: not all conservatives are stupid - but most stupid people are conservative...

[Waltb31]

Most stupid conservatives are neocons.

[WAstateliberal]

Phylmom, you're back!! Keep up the work out there. If WV goes for Obama, a lot of people in this country, including those in the media, will have a lot to apologize for.

[crossoverwriter]

Heck, ya!
Rednecks for Obama! Appalachia for Obama! Let's see your spit and fire! Won't it be a supreme pleasure to show the world that you've exorcised the ghosts of racism and have stepped into the 21st century?
Go, West VA!!!!!
Obama set to heal the economy and develop green jobs for you!

[Phylmom]

Yes, I always read Huffpost but the only thing that gets me riled enough to post are disparaging comments from people who clearly don't know the first thing about West Virginia and just like to air their prejudice against people from Appalachia.

[amoment]

I am a proud woman of color raised in the great state of West Virginia. I love the state and have great memories of growing up there. One of my best memories is that of a 12 year old seeing John F. Kennedy campaign in Keystone, West Virginia.

It is laughable that many describe W.Va as racist when my experience has been the exact opposite. As a resident of Philadelphia for sometime, now, PA seems to be more racist than W.Va. As a visitor to my home state, I meet people who are warm and genuine. Remember folks, having speech that includes a "twang" does not mean you are talking to or listening to a racist.

[greeniefromOH]

Does Mac's internal polling call cell phones?

Because if they do not.... then O is winning West Virginia for sure. Maybe by a slim margin, but winning nonetheless.

[WAstateliberal]

What's it looking like out there in the Buckeye State? Will Obama take it?

[Colmore]

I sincerely believe the racists at the McCain rallies are paid to yell their hateful remarks. I saw McCain smirk at one particularly vile comment.

[WorkingClass]

McCain isn't safe anywhere. I live in Louisiana where a lot of white folks think a black president would mean that white people would become second class citizens. My working class friends (the white ones) are reluctant to say who they will vote for. I think a lot of them will stay home. And others will vote Obama but say they voted McCain. Sort of a reverse Bradley affect. Only the most overt red-neck racists (and of course the rich people) are still supporting George Bush. McCain is seen as a continuation of Bush policy. Money trumps everything in this country and the Republicans are seen the party that bankrupted the country. If we are allowed to hold elections, I believe that Obama will win so big that the Republicans wont be able to steal it. I hope I'm right. I would love to see the Republicans totally humiliated on election day.

[grata2ude]

I seriously hope you are right. Anyone who lived in your state and saw how Bush and his administration was absent and slow in coming after Katrina how they could vote Republican this year I'll never understand.

[Cookie100]

Having been raised in Santa Monica, California, I was never exposed to racism, to any extent, really.

It's so odd hearing these comments. I'm still on the west coast in Portland, after a few years in Denver, which I had to leave, too red. I pray it's as blue now, as my friends say.

I read there are 83 million people in this country born since 1980. These people (for the most part) don't see the color of skin, this is a multi-racial country, especially in cities where most people live, and their suburbs.

I was 11 years old before black people could vote in this country! Reverend Wright could be a marine and fight for this country, BUT he WASN'T ALLOWED TO VOTE, until he was 28 yrs old!!

Makes me wonder when I hear people complaining about blacks ALL voting for Obama. In the 44 yrs that blacks have been able to vote, they've never had anyone but crusty old white as*holes to vote for!

Yuk, if my 401K were worth spit, I'd move to Canada

[BlueSky4]

Yea! Someone from Louisiana! Thank God! I have never posted a comment, but was so glad to hear that there are more of us "red-necks" voting for Obama! These are absolutely the most positive, uplifting and TRULY American comments I have ever read. Thank you all so much. I used to teach in Kentucky, and I am hoping they are coming aboard, too. Not many people I feel safe talking to around here, but just maybe they feel the same and are keeping quiet, too. Too many KKK very active here.