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Angie Ahmadi

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Khamenei Is Willing to Make Negotiations Succeed

Posted: 03/16/2012 6:05 pm

Last week, President Obama publicly lashed out at "loose talk of war" on Iran and warned of its consequences for the American people. To date, his so-called "carrot and stick" Iran strategy has driven the world closer to military confrontation. That is why Obama's recent stance has emboldened those seeking to resolve Iran's nuclear crisis diplomatically. The key question in the West, however, is whether or not Iran's willingness to pursue diplomacy is in good faith. Washington, London and Paris suspect that Iran's diplomatic outreach is a ploy for buying time.

To that end, the deep-seated mistrust between the West and the Iranian regime is now institutionalized, making it difficult for either side to find face-saving solutions. In Tehran, the ever-increasing sanctions have enhanced the regime's suspiciousness over Western intentions to resolve the crisis diplomatically. This mutual mistrust has impeded prior negotiations, limiting them to monologues and an exchange of ultimatums. However, a closer look at a series of recent developments in Iran should give pause to the rampant suspicion surrounding its intentions in the upcoming negotiations.

This week, Iranian chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili welcomed constructive talks with the P5+1 -- China, Russia, Britain, France and the United States, plus Germany. In a letter to EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, Jalili underlined Iran's interest in resumption of "serious talks without preconditions with the aim of achieving permanent cooperation," and agreed to set a date and venue for the talks. Such direct language regarding Iran's nuclear program is rarely used by the regime - thus demonstrating an increased degree of seriousness in Tehran as the talk of war escalates. Evidently, Iranian decision-makers are perfectly aware of the costs Israel would face if it attacked during negotiations.

In an unprecedented gesture last week, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei briefly praised President Obama for throwing cold water on the rising rhetoric of war, describing Obama's move as "a departure from illusion." As the world tightens the screws on the Islamic Republic, giving praise to an American president is a very rare -- but not incidental -- posture by Khamenei, whose two-decade leadership has been intertwined with demonization of American politicians and policies. The fact that Khamenei -- who wields ultimate authority in Iran -- commented on Obama's remarks with a visibly positive tone tempers the role of his anti-American perceptions in the country's policymaking.

Addressing the Assembly of Experts, Khamenei further that Obama is "in illusion" for thinking that sanctions would bring Iran to its knees. A cursory glance at this comment comment suggests a return to the usual theme of denunciation by Khamenei. However, combined with his earlier praise for Obama, the sum of Khamenei's words must be seen as a hint to western decision-makers that the progress on negotiations would accelerate if the sanctions machine came to a halt.

In addition to hinting at the West, Khamenei is preparing Iran's domestic arena for negotiations. Internal factors have always influenced the Islamic Republic's nuclear policies, and despite the marginalization of pro-reform forces, rifts within the conservative camp are running deeper as factions struggle over political and financial resources. It is clear to both the P5+1 and Khamenei that factional infighting adversely affects nuclear negotiations -- as recent history shows. For this very reason, Khamenei is trying to present an image of a unified Iran vis-à-vis the world.

In a reconciliatory gesture, Khamenei re-appointed former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani to another five-year term as the head of Iran's Expediency Council. Most liberal-minded figures and technocrats in the council -- such as opposition leader Mir-Hossein Mousavi; Rafsanjani's brother Mohammad Hashemi; and former petroleum minister Bijan Namdar-Zanganeh -- have been replaced by figures showing fealty to Khamenei, such as Defence Minister Ahmad Vahidi and his advisor Sadeq Vaezzadeh. While the council's makeup is now more conservative and closer to Khamenei, reinstating a Rafsanjani who lost all of his power bases is an attempt to leave the door ajar for national reconciliation. More importantly, given his reputation of pragmatism, Rafsanjani's re-appointment is a message to the West that the Islamic Republic not opposed to making a deal.

Also noteworthy is President Ahmadinejad's recent appearance before parliament - the first time in the Islamic Republic's history that a president was subjected to interrogation by lawmakers. Ahmadinejad was summoned to explain his economic policies, budget management, cabinet reshuffling, and last year's dispute with the Supreme Leader. While this blatant move by the conservative-dominated parliament epitomizes divisions among the so-called principlists, the interrogation session was far less explosive that many expected. Ahmadinejad responded to questioning in a dismissive manner, leaving many parliamentarians insulted and humiliated -- yet no whistle was blown, and no major controversy erupted. Notwithstanding a handful of outrageous comments made by furious lawmakers regarding possible impeachment scenarios, it remains unlikely that the parliament further escalates its conflict with a lame duck president.

With Khamenei emboldened by both a weakened pro-Ahmadinejad faction and parliamentary elections that went off without a hitch, his efforts have focused on pushing for unity among rival conservative factions. Should these factions unite under the auspices of the Supreme Leader, western diplomats will face a less challenging task in advancing nuclear negotiations forward.

These domestic political developments in Iran indicate the regime's serious intentions on breaking the deadlock and making real progress in the coming nuclear talks. For intentions to become results, it is important that the western response to Iran acknowledges the past, avoids its entrapments, and focuses on the future.

Angie Ahmadi is an Associate at the National Iranian American Council.

 
 
 
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Gui Montag
Former Palestinian Supporter
12:40 PM on 04/23/2012
How many members of the National Iranian American Council are bloggers here? I've counted at least two.
D-Driller
my micro-bio is empty
11:23 AM on 03/19/2012
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/edwin-black/obama-national-defense-resources-preparedness_b_1359715.html

Hmmm.... Sounds to me like somebody with the initials BHO doesn't believe them...
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Pod-gers
Jeremy Lin = Game Change
01:36 PM on 03/18/2012
Interesting post. However, the US senate Foreign relationas Committee is bound and determined to destroy Iran, prevent them building the Peace Pipeline, and support building the TAPI thru Afghanistan, no matter how many american troops are lost. I doubt if Obama, or any president can change the direction of the US Military's Full Spectrum Dominance, after all, Obama just took China to the WTO over Rare Earths.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
muck-raker
give me liberty or give me death
09:02 AM on 03/18/2012
Iran Ready to Allow IAEA Access to Parchin Military Facility in Future

TEHRAN (FNA)- Iran's Representative Office at the International Atomic Energy Agency announced on Tuesday that the country will be ready to provide the UN nuclear agency with one-time access to its Parchin military test facility once modalities of Iran-IAEA cooperation have been agreed on, reminding that the facility is a highly sensitive military site already visited by inspectors twice.

"Given the fact that Parchin is a military site and finding access to such a site is a time-consuming process and cannot be done repeatedly, and taking into account that the Agency has been asked (by Iran) to integrate all the related issues, including the hydrodynamic tests, permission will be granted for access" to Parchin (of course, only after the aforementioned demand is materialized), a statement by Iran's Representative Office at the IAEA said.

"Clearly, this process can start only when an agreement is made on the modality plan," it said, and reminded that the two sides have already agreed that the IAEA's demand for accessing Parchin be postponed until after the next meeting of the IAEA Board of Governors currently underway in Vienna.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Bahramerad
04:45 AM on 03/18/2012
... And then everything would be dandy ... and you'll be able to go back to Iran and become vice president !
Zip Zinzel
If a Nation expects to be both Ignorant & Free . .
12:07 AM on 03/18/2012
IMHO Iran should withdraw from the NPT, and declare that it will defend itself.
THIS IS EXACTLY THE SAME POSITION AS ISRAEL

Israel has repeatedly committed unprovoked acts of war against other weaker countries, and just like GWB, claimed that these illegal attacks are self-defense

Iran should not let UN inspectors in,
All that will do in the end, is provide military targeting information for the US & Israel to more efficiently commit the illegal attacks that they have been openly talking about for quite some time.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
muck-raker
give me liberty or give me death
07:45 AM on 03/18/2012
Zip, many excellent post(s) here is what US news will never tell us:
Lebanon to Purchase Iran's Electricity

TEHRAN Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati announced that his country will import power supplies from Iran in near future.

We have no problem with purchasing electricity from Iran and welcome Iranian firms in this regard, Mikati told Islamic republic news agency

Iranian Ambassador to Lebanon Qazanfar Roknabadi has also said that part of electricity the Arab state needs will be supplied to national grid by end of next month (April) after some technical problems are solved

US Exporters to Sell 220,000 tons of Wheat to Iran despite Sanctions

TEHRAN - US sources announced that despite unilateral sanctions imposed by Washington against Tehran, Iran is close to completing purchases of 220,000 tons of wheat from American exporters due to be shipped as early as April.
http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=9012152501
http://english.farsnews.com/NewsV.php?news=all&i=5 gas pipeline
Deputy Minister: Iran, Iraq to Form Teams to Develop Joint Oil Fields

TEHRAN - Iranian Deputy Oil Minister Zeiqami stressed fruitfulness of negotiations between Tehran and Baghdad on cooperation in oil sector, and announced that two neighbors have decided to set up joint teams to study development of their shared oil fields
Iraq has now linked up with Iran to buy their electricity. many countries have come out to support Iran, namely India, Brazil, Afgan, Pakistan, Turkey, Iraq, Lebanon, China and Russia. The USA Military complex must be hopping mad at this prospect.
Zip Zinzel
If a Nation expects to be both Ignorant & Free . .
11:35 PM on 03/17/2012
What a farce !

1) The only real power in Iran rests in a very opaque manner with the Supreme-Leader and the 12-member Guardian Council
SO FOR STARTERS, it's a waste of time talking to any negotiators, ambassadors, or even the President Ahmadinejad

2) What the Supreme-Leader said in regards to Pres Obama, was unusual, but ultimately TRIVIAL, and meaningless

3) All that we know for sure about the Supreme-Leader & the Guardian-Council, collectively is that they are not in favor of free & fair elections, and have no qualms about putting down public protests over stolen elections with brutal, and deadly force.
AND MIND YOU, they won't allow free & fair elections for government positions which cannot exercise any REAL POWER,
AND, also elections where only "APPROVED' candidates are allowed to run in the first place.

4) Unless you are sitting down with the Supreme-Leader AND the Guardian-Council together, you cannot make a deal that is worth the paper it is printed on.
SIMILARLY, in North Korea, unless you make a deal directly with the guy who's first name is Kim, then you're just whistling dixie.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
JudgeMoonbox
11:34 PM on 03/17/2012
I suspect that some of the saber rattling was intended to get the Iranian people behind Khamenei for the recent election--they wanted an external enemy to get voters to rally 'round the flag, and they provoked a crisis for that purpose. Now that the election's over, it'll be interesting to see them trying to unplug the crisis.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
NAMI
The Divine Socialist
11:14 PM on 03/17/2012
Ms Ahmadi
This is a timely and serious post . I hope the Ayatollah Khamenei who has declared Nuclear Bombs as HARAAM , and since the Islamic constitution forbids Iran from Starting a WAR, it would really make him lose any MORAL AUTHORITY if he allows the Gov to do otherwise.
It is indeed a good sign that he has finally praised our President Obama who is definitely a person of GOOD WILL.
Let us hope that Decency will prevail over evil WAR MONGERING.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
muck-raker
give me liberty or give me death
07:48 AM on 03/18/2012
thank you for your inciteful post FF, the truth will win out in the end
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
07:51 AM on 03/18/2012
...and prevail over the profiteers of the M-I complex in the US.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
NAMI
The Divine Socialist
03:31 PM on 03/18/2012
Yes of course............Do you think there would be wars now if there was NO Profeteeting ???
iridium53
Semper Fi
11:12 PM on 03/17/2012
It's wonderful that you have such amazing insight into the mind and intentions of Khamenei that others do not have.

How do accomplish this magical divination of what is in other's minds?
hagenjr
Shovel ready freeborn son of the Republic
09:29 PM on 03/17/2012
it would be awesome if the two supreme leaders would fight it out highlander style.


there can be only one.
09:06 PM on 03/17/2012
Iran is the one playing chicken. All they need to do is to accept supplies of enriched uranium from Russia and France to supply their nuclear reactors, and end their enrichment program. It is the enrichment program that is the central issue. This is where the movement from civilian nuclear use can be moved towards military use. If their ultimate goal is strictly to generate electricity, which they have every right to do, then why not take up the offer? If Iran is truly interested in the peaceful use of nuclear power, then it should end the ambiguities that it has wrapped around it's program.
Furthermore, it's not just Israel which would be threatened by a nuclear armed Iran...so would the entire region. The world needs to unite and first, prevent any more states from acquiring nuclear weapons, and second, pressure those that have nuclear weapons to disarm.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Ukridge
“If there’s a bustle in your hedgerow, don’t
09:47 PM on 03/17/2012
I can't picture the scenario in which Iran could use a nuclear device to threaten someone. Pakistan and Iran or Russia don't.
10:53 PM on 03/17/2012
They don't need to actually make a specific threat. Just having the weapons is the threat. One can use the Iranian situation to argue that even being ambiguous about the acquisiton of nuclear weapons is a threat. The response to it by those that feel threatened is to develop same capabilities. The world has been lucky that these weapons haven't been used since 1945, which is probably due to the monopoly of them by the five powers, all of which were stable regimes. It's known that Israel went on nuclear alert in it's dark days of the 1973 war, which was the second closest time of possible use after the October Missile Crisis. I don't see anything good coming out of Iran, or any other states, acquiring nuclear weapons. The world needs to act to prevent it.
thankgodimanatheist8
The answer to fools is silence
10:26 PM on 03/17/2012
It is the right of Iran under NPT to enrich uranium. If foreigners supply the enriched uranium they could cut off the supplies at any time. Let Russia nd France buy enriched uranium from Iran.
11:21 PM on 03/17/2012
Yet it's not their right to develop nuclear weapons, nor their right to block access to the IAEA to inspect facilities under the same treaty. States have a right to enrich unless they have been sanctioned by the IAEA for possible weapons programs, which Iran was for failing to report it's enrichment program. It's this ambiguity that Iran is operating under that is the root of the issue. Check your facts.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Phil Lunney
The Moderate Man, iEnvisioneer
07:39 PM on 03/17/2012
The Arab Spring may now be morphing into a new variation. Assad in Syria may be unintentionally be providing a "scary" model for resisting change from the populace. Rational discussions in any format with the Supreme Leader has to be a more hopeful outcome rather than a contentious debate with Ahmadinejad. The Rafsanjani appointment is also a sign of moderation.
I welcome any positive and peaceful approach to resolve issues between countries.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Ukridge
“If there’s a bustle in your hedgerow, don’t
09:52 PM on 03/17/2012
Saudi Arabia might have been the Syrian inspiration for the current model used.
Zip Zinzel
If a Nation expects to be both Ignorant & Free . .
11:44 PM on 03/17/2012
Phil, I personally take no comfort in retaining Rafsanjani as head of the so-called "Expediency-Council.
At the end of the day, they are simply a powerless collection of puppets;
. . . as is the Parliament & the President
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karim banned
A fool's mind is at the mercy of his tongue and a
06:48 PM on 03/18/2012
Lat's see, according to you:

Ahmadinejad is a slave,
Supreme leader is a slave,
Rafsanjani is a slave,
Parliament members are the slave.

I think all of the above agree with you and tell Iranians that Allah is the master and they are all slaves of Allah.

You should take comfort as being a Muslim and have the same ideology as the Iranian leaders and most Iranians.

Where did you study about Islam?
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07:17 PM on 03/17/2012
Opaque
05:32 PM on 03/17/2012
I would ask the author if Khameini is ready to talk to Israel. If not then case closed.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
cyberfringe
When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro.
11:15 PM on 03/17/2012
Bingo. Why not use this opportunity to formally recognize Israel? That would put minds at rest.
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NAMI
The Divine Socialist
11:20 PM on 03/17/2012
One step at a time !
do not be too greedy.