iPhone app iPad app Android phone app Android tablet app More

Featuring fresh takes and real-time analysis from HuffPost's signature lineup of contributors
Ann Pettifor

GET UPDATES FROM Ann Pettifor

Standard and Poor's: The Voice of Sanity on the Deficit

Posted: 05/ 3/10 11:21 PM ET

It might seem extraordinary, but in the midst of deficit-cutting mania it is a rating agency, Standard and Poor's, that is talking common sense about government debt.

By doing so they are challenging members of the international Austerity Party -- a political party that dominates economic debate across the world.

In this case the rating agency was commenting on the crisis in Greece and Portugal -- but the comment could just as well apply to the United States -- or any other economy trying to recover from a financial crisis induced by private bankers.

Standard and Poor's officials are quoted by the New York Times (28 April, 2010) as saying:

"The main reason for downgrading the debt of Greece and Portugal was the prospect that forced austerity packages would be an even bigger drag on economic growth.

It is the most vicious of circles: stagnating economies are forced to cut back more, which reduces their ability to generate revenue and thus pay off their debts."

This economic common sense makes a refreshing change from the suicidal howls of the lemming-like hordes leading the international Austerity Party. These dominate all economic debate on the airwaves, in newspaper columns, economic blogs and political outlets.

As they head for the cliffs, they can be heard baying for cuts in government spending -- regardless of economic common sense; regardless of the likely economic impact.

Their argument is simple: when a nation is at its weakest, when its debts are highest, when the economy is at greatest peril, then it is imperative to apply draconian policies for cutting the deficit.

These policies must include vicious cut-backs on efforts by the government to stimulate economic recovery, and generate the revenues that will repay debts.

In particular government must cut back on public investment in infrastructure that creates jobs, generates tax revenues (through the 'multiplier') and helps the economy recover, so that debts can be repaid.

In other words, when an economy -- any economy -- is heavily in debt and on its knees...

That is the moment, argues the Austerity Party, to cut off its legs.

Before forcing it to run the marathon.

Forgive the violence of my analogy, but sometimes words, as Keynes argued, have to be a little wild, to rouse people from their blindness to grave threats and risks.

Right now the European Union and IMF, with the forceful backing of the German chancellor and finance minister, are coercing the democratically elected Greek government into effectively disabling the Greek economy.

According to the Financial Times (2 May 2010) there is to be " a huge fiscal tightening equal to 16 per cent of gross domestic product -- an extra 11 per cent on top of the 5 per cent already announced."

"Greece's vicious recession is poised to continue and deepen... The fiscal targets require huge upfront cuts in public spending, including reductions in public sector pay, jobs and pensions."

The IMF's representative Poul Thomsen had the gall to argue that this disastrous economic strategy "is credible because it has a lot of support from the international community; it is credible because it is socially well balanced; it is credible because it is the [Greek] government's programme."

This is a dishonest and delusional statement.

It is dishonest because it is blatantly not the Greek government's program. It is the German government's condition for making bailout funds available.

It is delusional, because it is an economic strategy designed to fail.

While it may be credible with the members of the international Austerity Party, it is not economically viable.

Ask Standard and Poor's.

The voice of common sense, drowned out by the hysteria and flawed economics of the Austerity Party.

 

Follow Ann Pettifor on Twitter: www.twitter.com/AnnPettifor

 
 
  • Comments
  • 145
  • Pending Comments
  • 0
  • View FAQ
Comments are closed for this entry
View All
Favorites
Recency  | 
Popularity
Page: 1 2 3  Next ›  Last »  (3 total)
04:36 PM on 05/05/2010
Austerity Party wants to run down prices in Greece. It's not all about earning interest on debt, it's also about picking up income-earning assets on the cheap. That's the last leg in the cycle before growth. Then, the new growth benefits a smaller class composed of more banks and investors outside of the country who had the capital while prices were low.
12:28 PM on 05/05/2010
I think making the rich pay taxes and stopping them from moving the money out of the country in order to buy luxury homes in London, could maybe do the trick.
11:57 AM on 05/05/2010
The Bush tax cuts gave a 62% reduction for certain types of unearned incomes. These tax cuts, his off balance sheet wars and increased security spending accounted for all of his 5 trillion dollars in debt. Social Security all the while continued to run surpluses. These surpluses were ostensibly run to mediate the coming reduction in receipts. The recession, caused by the Republicans lack of regulatory judgment, has temporarily increased the deficit by increasing non discretionary spending and reducing revenues.

So now those who caused the deficits want to use programs that did not lead to the deficits to cure the deficits. Only a Republican could suggest these measures with a straight face. Only a group of people so infatuated with greed and theft could devise such ideas. If this weren't so serious and if the Republicans and their enablers on the other side weren't so powerful this would be laughable. The Republicans have been trying to destroy the basis of our middle class since its foundations were laid in the New Deal. We have twice seen the damage done by deregulation and their mantra of "free trade" has bled us dry. Now they are bent on destroying the social framework.

It is unfortunate that Obama lacks the courage to do what is necessary in stopping the useless wars, cutting back arcane and irrelevant defense spending and returning to a fair progressive tax system. Someone once more must go into the breach and there are very few takers.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
gerald4
licensed mechanical and electrical engineer
10:27 AM on 05/05/2010
Greece stopped working to produce wealth (de-industrialized) and then borrowed money (printed Greek Bonds and sold them) instead of raising taxes needed to pay for their government expenditures. They increased their bureaucrat payrolls, state and local payrolls, and put as many people into tax supported jobs as possible (to stay in political power). They cannot repay the money that they borrowed. Why would anyone buy any of the freshly printed but worthless Greek Bonds? (Maybe they are pretty?)

The Greeks will have to drastically reduce all of their government expenses at all levels, and also re-industrialize to create a flow of National Wealth through exports to emulate the nations that have industrialized in the past couple of decades.

Is this the future of the US Bond Market? I tend to think so.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
blueken
Finger Picking blues man
11:09 AM on 05/05/2010
The same people that want belt tightning now, shiped our industrial jobs over seas years ago. They are also the people that benifited the most from the first Stimulus package. Now they want to cut social security and Medicare. Those people don't need social security and Medicare. No one listens to the people that do need them. What would you have our elderly do, die from lack of medical attention, live on cat food? Just wondering..........
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
gerald4
licensed mechanical and electrical engineer
11:35 AM on 05/05/2010
What if there is no funds for anything?

Why can't the US government just buy some more paper and print more US Bonds (faster and faster) to pay our expenses like Mexico prints pesos? Every time that we print dollars, the value and buying power of each printed dollar reduces proportionately. One US Dollar that would buy about 8 Mexican pesos in 1960 can now exchange for as much as 15,000 of the 1960 Mexican pesos today. This is equivalent to about 187,500% inflation over that period.

A $2.00 USA loaf of bread would then cost $3,750.00 if the USA implemented Mexican type economic monetary policies.

The USA has to create wealth if we want to distribute any to our elderly.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
gerald4
licensed mechanical and electrical engineer
11:38 AM on 05/05/2010
Riots and insurrections are predictable, ala the French Revolution and the Russian Revolution, when the people find their situations economically hopeless. Mass unemployment will foster mass civil unrest, crime, anger, riots, revolution, starvation, etc. Future federal nationalization of foreign owned US property and other foreign owned US business assets, ala Mexico, Venezuela, etc., is another topic for discussion on another day.

If any future US revolution to overthrow the US government occurs (maybe to change the economic situation), where will all of the food, fuel, water, sanitation, medicine, and other necessities to support the population come from after the revolution? These necessities will not exist after the revolutionary hostilities start.

Chaos and total lawlessness will prevail during and long after any US revolution. Only the very meanest and the most evil will survive in this climate. We will have then totally destroyed our civilization. We will live like people in Africa, and we will have to comply with the will of any and every armed person that we encounter. Will all of the city residents starve after a revolution? Most of the US urban population is not knowledgeable enough to live off of the land anymore. The city dwellers might foray into the country, kill the farmers, and steal the farmer's food to feed their own families. Food might become more valuable than freshly printed paper US dollars.
04:39 PM on 05/05/2010
I'd buy a Greek bond tomorrow if they defaulted on the lenders who lent after the 2000 Goldman debt trick, forced those lenders to take a haircut and forced the lenders to sue Goldman for misleading the EU.
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
photo
09:59 AM on 05/05/2010
"... the suicidal howls of the lemming-like hordes..."
Much sound and fury leading to nothing.
Labels that can be attached to politicians and bloggers alike.
What can the average citizen actually do?
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
photo
10:04 AM on 05/05/2010
P.S. I agree with Ms. Pettifor's assessment of S&P's view on national debt. I just feel incredibly impotent as an average citizen.
08:19 AM on 05/05/2010
Oh, but our Tea Party nuts wouldn't want to do global anything.
07:58 AM on 05/05/2010
In the case of Greece, it must be pointed out that the government and bureaucracy have made insanely difficult - over decades - to open or maintain a business of any size. Nor have they had any sound overall industrial development policy to encourage investment and growth. These are areas where the government needs to focus. The Greek economy is very limited, dependant mostly on state jobs (including medical and military), tourism, shipping, financial services, some cement and dairy production. And bars, cafes, and tavernas. In tough times, none of those (except dairy) are safe sources of revenue. Not only that, raising the VAT and fuel taxes (which may satisfy the EU and IMF) are going to hit the vast majority of the population very hard. The average wage is still under 800 euros a month. Barely enough to get by on if one has a family.
06:48 AM on 05/05/2010
Now, only if the tea baggers & all of those whining about the budget deficits our government is running would listen and understand this point. The ignorance of these people just makes me feel like vomiting all over their tri-pointed hats.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
dsws
No owning ideas. Limit only commercial use.
06:38 AM on 05/05/2010
Tax cuts do not raise revenue. Leave the voodoo economics to the Republicans.

Tax increases and spending cuts can affect the interest rate a country has to pay. That doesn't mean they have to be front-loaded, but they do have to be real. Saying you're going to increase spending, cut taxes, and eliminate the deficit just won't work with bondholders the way it often does with voters.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Ann Pettifor
07:29 AM on 05/05/2010
dsws - all that bondholders want is for the economy to recover.....Think of Russia, 1998. Defaulted on her debts....got out from under the IMF's economic strategy, and recovered...After which investors - with unseemly haste - piled in, and have not looked back...
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
dsws
No owning ideas. Limit only commercial use.
11:12 AM on 05/05/2010
Thanks for the reply.

If you're talking about a country that's going to default, it's certainly best to get it over with. Bondholders would rather have new debt they know can be paid and probably will be, than old debt that probably can't be paid. But if they definitely can pay the debt, even with some hardship, it's probably cheaper to do so.

The US definitely can pay our debt. Default risk isn't even in the picture. If there's a situation where the US defaults, gold won't do you any good either. Even the traditional diversification into ammo and canned goods is likely to be futile in that kind of scenario.

In the case of US debt, it's a matter of how much money people are looking to park someplace safe. If we go past that, we're both raising the rate and crowding out private investment. In the Great Recession there's been a lot of money looking for a safe place to park, and not a lot of investment going on that could be crowded out. But the recession is technically over, and the ship of state turns slowly.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
MacTheBlogger
I used to be disgusted...
06:28 AM on 05/05/2010
As BOTH parties continue to drive us, at breakneck speed, deeper and deeper into debt, I can't help but notice two glaring things.

First, both parties want us to believe that "when the OTHER party is in power, deficits are horrible and cannot be tolerated", and "when MY party is in power, deficits are okay, really."

Second, the last time America was really humming, the last time deficits were down and/or eliminated, was when Bill Clinton was in the White House and the Republicans controlled Congress. Moderation, cooperation, responsibility, accountability.

Go ahead liberals and conservatives, spin away. Point the finger at the other guy.

.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
dsws
No owning ideas. Limit only commercial use.
06:42 AM on 05/05/2010
... "the other guy" being the ones who had deficits increase during their terms even in economic booms, the ones who claimed to have "proved deficits don't matter".

Democrats know they will be blamed for the taxes, sooner or later, to pay for any spending they want to do. So they budget. Republicans know the same thing, with the opposite implications.
06:52 AM on 05/05/2010
I think you're over simplifying things. When the economy is doing well, that is the time to chip away at the debt (like Clinton did, and Bush should have been doing until things turned South), and when there's a recession, that is the time for deficit spending. Unfortunately, Bush 43 decided to sign in to law massive entitlement programs that were unpaid for, only exacerbating the situation that we're in now with the federal debt.
07:49 AM on 05/05/2010
Don't mention running two (2) concurrent wars - off the books!
03:02 AM on 05/05/2010
This is the same problem companies face in economic downturns, when they cut back advertising to save money, then lose a driving force for increasing their income.
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
photo
02:52 AM on 05/05/2010
Does this lady actually know anything about S&P? and how they had almost every failed financial institution rated at triple AAA? right before the credit crisis?
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Ann Pettifor
07:31 AM on 05/05/2010
This lady sure does know S&P and how they failed every all those innocent investors believing that institutions rated at triple AAA, were really AAA when they were not....But that is not the point of my blog.....the point of my blog is that on THIS issue - the deficit - amazingly, they have got it right.
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
photo
02:49 AM on 05/05/2010
S&P's were one of the rating agencies that FAILED to predict the credit crisis & propery bubble! Where was their commonsense then?
06:55 AM on 05/05/2010
When one's income is based on not seeing something, their sight miraculously begins to fail.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Ann Pettifor
07:32 AM on 05/05/2010
Who knows dobberdoss.....but we are not talking about then. We are talking about now.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
jinxed
starting over at 60
12:50 AM on 05/05/2010
The IMF strikes again! How many countries do they have to destroy and how many people of these same countries have to be reduced to poverty before the IMF admits their policies are flawed and doomed to fail? Will the IMF come to the USA next and destroy another 8 million jobs and finish off the working/middle classes? Is that really a winning policy? I think not! If the IMF impoverishes 80% of the world, will they be happy then?
07:55 AM on 05/05/2010
We don't need the IMF here. We have the Tea Party proposing the same 'medicine'.

Speaking of medical treatment, remember when docs thought that bleeding their patients was such a good idea?
05:34 PM on 05/05/2010
The US contributes funds to the IMF....some of which are now heading to Greece. You have to love Washington....but what the heck it is other people's money.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Acharn
12:16 AM on 05/05/2010
I would have loved to see the deficit hawks' reaction if the IMF had imposed one of their famous austerity packages on the U.S. As one economist pointed out, the actual policies followed in the U.S. were those of a third-world country with blatant crony capitalism. We've seen these guys destroy national economies for decades. Sometimes, as in the case of Thailand after 1997, they admit that their policies were "a mistake," but the next time they do exactly the same thing.

I don't really understand why it is that the rich are so opposed to the less rich improving their lot. Do they think wealth creation is a zero-sum game? If poor people prosper it must make the rich less wealthy? Or do they just like the contrast between their own comfort and the sufferings of the poor?
04:28 AM on 05/05/2010
The real question to the rich is "how much better can they eat"?
08:00 AM on 05/05/2010
The rich are so "opposed to the less rich", because it is the difference that makes 'em feel good.

If everyone were rich, what would be the point? If you look at the world of the rich, the whole point in everything they do is to emphasize exclusivity. Think about the meaning of the word "exclusive"; I'm in with the in-crowd. You are NOT!

A major component of the psychological drive to get/be rich is the desire to show everybody else how much better you are than they.

With proper constraints, such behavior can be beneficial. Unrestrained...

Well, you see.