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Anna Leahy

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SpaceX: Future or Failure?

Posted: 05/22/2012 11:19 am

co-authored with Douglas Dechow

Last Friday night, we stayed up late to watch the launch of the Dragon capsule. Anna watched NASA-TV, and Doug watched the SpaceX broadcast. Because the launch of this commercial venture to replace the space shuttle for U.S. transport to the International Space Station had been delayed before, we didn't rush to Kennedy Space Center to watch the launch in person. We'd done that four times to see the space shuttle. Admittedly, having seen the last two shuttle launches in person, we didn't know how we'd feel about watching this test of launch and rendezvous by Space Exploration Technologies, otherwise known as SpaceX. So we choose to keep our distance.

2012-05-22-20122861s.jpgAs the hours elapsed on Friday afternoon and evening with no problems, we started to regret our decision not to fly cross-country, stay up all night, and wait for hours among the mosquitos. A few weeks earlier, Garrett Reisman, a former shuttle astronaut and now senior engineer at SpaceX, had assured us that, although there is always the possibility of a small problem delaying a rocket launch for a couple of days, the Dragon capsule atop the Falcon 9 rocket would be absolutely ready to go on May 19. As the countdown clock continued its steady slide, we became convinced that Reisman was right.

But then the clock ticked to zero, and the rocket didn't budge. We held out breaths. We leaned toward our computer screens. No liftoff. With a launch window of just a single second, any last-minute delay meant an abort. In this case, a problem in an engine pressure valve shut down the process automatically, just a split-second before the rocket was set to go.

Lofty Ambitions guest blogger Margaret Lazarus Dean did rush to the Space Coast for the weekend launch attempt. In her "Postcard From the Earth" at the Huffington Post yesterday, she wrote,

Even though today's launch was not successful, and even though the retirement of the space shuttle has been hard on space fans -- especially people here on the Space Coast -- my experience at today's launch attempt confirms the simple and irrefutable love people have for spaceflight, the unending appeal of the idea that human being can leave the surface of the planet where we evolved.

But you might think, it's just a test. And this one is an unmanned one at that. It's just the prelude for manned re-supply missions to the space station. It's not as if NASA hasn't figured all this out before. It's not as if SpaceX isn't building on the decades of technological progress NASA already made. Low-Earth orbit is nothing new. Neil deGrasse Tyson pointed out in a tweet, "If Earth were size of a schoolroom globe, our atmosphere wouldn't be much thicker than the coat of lacquer on its surface." The International Space Station is about 230 miles away. Los Angeles is farther from Las Vegas than the space station is from the ground.

So Friday's last-second launch abort reminds us that spaceflight is hard. Really hard. And that's one reason that we bother going to space at all. President Kennedy told us that's why we plan missions to space: "not because they are easy, but because they are hard, because that goal will serve to organize and measure the best of our energies and skills, because that challenge is one that we are willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postpone." President Kennedy and Margaret Lazarus Dean are right. Irrefutable, no going back, and the present game is at the International Space Station. And we must go farther in the future.

Last night, we again stayed up to watch the launch of the Dragon capsule on NASA-TV. With the three-hour time difference for Californians, we could still get to bed by 1 a.m. The countdown again went smoothly: Stage 1 and Stage 2 auto-sequences started. Launch directors go for launch. The flight computer is in control of the vehicle. 3-2-1. Liftoff, and quickly, The vehicle is supersonic. Nine minutes into flight, it dispersed the ashes of 308 dead people, including Star Trek's James Doohan. Early this morning, a capsule designed and launched by a private company began orbiting the Earth, making its roughly 75-hour way to the International Space Station for a docking on Friday morning.

SpaceX is neither future nor failure. Based on this recent launch, SpaceX is the necessary present. As all artists (including writers like us) and scientists know, we must risk failure to make the new future. We're off to a new day and a good one.

 
 
 
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co-authored with Douglas Dechow Last Friday night, we stayed up late to watch the launch of the Dragon capsule. Anna watched NASA-TV, and Doug watched the SpaceX broadcast. Because the launch of this...
co-authored with Douglas Dechow Last Friday night, we stayed up late to watch the launch of the Dragon capsule. Anna watched NASA-TV, and Doug watched the SpaceX broadcast. Because the launch of this...
 
 
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12:30 PM on 05/29/2012
SpaceX just announced that they've signed the first customer for the Falcon Heavy, and it's the biggest commercial satellite operator in the world: Intelsat.

Falcon Heavy is a Falcon 9 with three parallel booster stages. It will be the first launch vehicle to use propellant cross-feed, whereby the center stage engines are fed from the outer stage tanks, depleting the outer tanks faster and leaving more propellant in the center stage when it separates from the outer stages.

Falcon Heavy will deliver 53 tons to low earth orbit, or more than double the performance of the most powerful rockets in the world today. It will be the second most powerful launch vehicle in history, following the Saturn V moon rocket.

So with a $4B manifest for Falcon 9 and the blue whale of the global comsat industry on board with the new Falcon Heavy, SpaceX is silencing the critics and earning the respect of the industry.

Again, looks like future, not like failure.
01:42 AM on 05/31/2012
I am looking forward to the first launch of the Falcon Heavy. TWICE the payload of the shuttle, a fifth of the cost (much less if they manage to reuse the vehicle). That's how you make a difference in space!
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Downix
03:08 PM on 05/31/2012
Not a fifth of the cost, only half of the cost. And the initial FH will not have the 53 metric ton payload, that will require not one, but two upgrades first. Initial FH payload will be comparable to the Shuttles, which is still new territory for the private sector. It will not be the second most powerful launch vehicle in history, only the 6th. The Saturn V, N-1, Energia, Energia-M, Proton and Shuttle all surpass it for ground level thrust.

I'd recommend reading more than press releases.
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Downix
03:11 PM on 05/31/2012
Forgot about the Energia, N-1, Energia-M, Shuttle and Proton there. (And Delta IV if you remember the Heavy versions available for order should a customer require it, although at its pricetag I doubt one would)

And I am glad to see this payload finally going up.
12:02 PM on 05/25/2012
Looks like a full-fledged success to me... they are almost done with the capture of the Dragon... so, at the very least, it will be delivering cargo to the station. If they can also re-enter and retrieve the vehicle (which they have already done successfully), the mission will be a full success, and they can, in principle, go into commercial re-supply mode.

This will give SpaceX the necessary confidence to pursue the man-rating of their hardware, next!
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02:25 AM on 05/25/2012
We are living the future right this minute.

I am currently watching the NASA feed for the birthing of the Dragon. Oh my how things have changed over the past 50 years.

From here in Southern California I have followed the space program since my days as an 11 year old kid laying on my back on the flat roof of our patio house visually tracking Sputnik crossing the night sky and listening to it's radio beacon transmission on my old Hallicrafter SW radio. My mother worked for Radioplane/Rocketdyne weaving electrical harnesses and doing solder work.

The Rocketdyne engine test facility in the Santa Susana mountains to the west was only 15 miles away. The engines tested there rattled our windows and those engines went to space.

What a great experience it has been to witness first hand all the projects that we as a nation have accomplished to get us where we are today. The X-15 rocket plane, to the ISS.

We witnessed the roll-out of the Space Shuttle Enterprise. We later also watched the Shuttle land at Edwards.

And not to be overlooked, NASA/JPL is right up the hill. Been there many times.

Fast forwarding to now. The Dragon capsule has traveled from the SpaceX facilities at El Segundo and Hawthorn to within spitting distance of the ISS. I must say, Southern California has been a very interesting place for a person that first watched Sputnik cross the heavens.

I'm a happy old camper.
01:55 PM on 05/25/2012
It's great to read about your personal memories. We moved to Southern California a few years ago and began writing Lofty Ambitions blog in part because of the area's rich history.

JPL's Open House is coming up on June 9-10. We've been once (saw a Mars rover being built!), and we recommend it to anyone in the area. Here's more info from JPL: http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/events/open-house.cfm.
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AntonioSaucedo
12:59 AM on 05/25/2012
Zuckerberg should be using his billions for this kind of brilliant enterprise.
09:29 AM on 05/24/2012
Last night's rendezvous demo went very well, with the Dragon spacecraft passing 2.5km below the ISS, demonstrating communications, command, and control with the ISS and verifying the performance of the relative navigation sensors.

With that, all COTS 2 mission objectives are complete. Pending confirmation from NASA, SpaceX is clear to proceed into COTS 3 with the re-rendezvous, approach, and berthing ops on Friday.

So looking like future at the moment. Certainly not failure.
01:07 AM on 05/25/2012
We're looking forward to Friday too!
10:07 PM on 05/23/2012
My response to the the above was too lengthy for this format but the authors suggested that I post a link to my response.

http://thwrex.blogspot.com/2012/05/legacy-of-nasa-shuttle-and-spacex.html

Here are the first few hundred words though:

The legacy of NASA Shuttle and the Spacex Challenge
In response to the Huffington Post blog referenced here: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/anna-leahy

What made the Shuttle (and the entire STS program) "the most complicated machine ever built by humankind" was the *imposed* need for Small Business Administration fulfillment. A very large percent of each spacecraft had to be built by both small and economically restricted businesses. Over 2.4 million components (most) produced by separate businesses on paper diagrams before the internet even existed. I have seen portions of those documents at (retired) Rockwell facilities. 10's of thousands of pages.

This was typical of the entire government contracting system of the 70's and 80's and not the fault of NASA. Essentially *any* aerospace company worked under the same rules. Inherent in this process is also a "freeze" of technology at the same time. Computers with the power of an Apple IIe were the initial processors used on board. Due to the cost and complexity of "redesign" this remained the case far longer than similar computers were used anywhere else.

What that procurement legacy gave us was a spacecraft system that ...
10:56 PM on 05/23/2012
I think it must have been The Huffington Post that indicated you have a length limit. We don't moderate our comments here, so this is the first we've seen of your response.

We're glad you're extending the conversation. It's good to see some specifics, too. We'll check out what you have to say. And of course, we have a lot more about the space shuttle at Lofty Ambitions blog.
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Nic the wonder puppy
When life throws lemons, throw them back
12:53 PM on 05/23/2012
I'm only a dog but, i say future and beyond.
01:52 PM on 05/23/2012
The first animal to orbit the Earth was a dog. Laika, launched by the Soviets in 1954. That mission did not go well for Laika. Several others went up and fared much better.
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Nic the wonder puppy
When life throws lemons, throw them back
08:12 AM on 05/24/2012
Yes he went to where all dogs go, to that upstate farm. Must be getting crowded  
ThinkCreeps
Seriously, it's time.
06:29 AM on 05/23/2012
Really hard? Yes, but also potentially really lucrative.

There are about 50 satellites launched every year. SpaceX offers to cut the price for that service by about a factor of four. That's a hefty opportunity for healthy profit, while giving everyone more of the weather, communications, science and security that they've come to expect from space-based facilities over the last half century.
01:47 PM on 05/23/2012
NASA initially thought it would be cheaper than it ended up to, but, yes, SpaceX is in a much better position to calculate the cost, profit, and a reasonable mission schedule than NASA was thirty (and during development, forty) years ago.

You have me thinking of how crowded it's become up there just beyond the Earth's atmosphere in the last few decades.
ThinkCreeps
Seriously, it's time.
03:35 PM on 05/23/2012
It might not come off, but the economics are looking promising at the moment. The returning stages idea might be enough to make SpaceX a shed load of money, at least for the decade they might have the market to themselves. 
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wrwhiteal
05:47 PM on 05/23/2012
NASA promises a gullible Congress a 'cheap, safe, reliable' shuttle at $7 million/launch..
Then NASA delivered a $1.5 billion/flight boondoggle, which killed 2crew, and had multi-year service outages... NASA's shuttle was the most expensive, dangerous, unreliable space vehicle in history...

Then, NASA blew $20 billion on it's failed/canceled Constrllation project to create a new booster/capsule...
So, space is extremely hard for big govt, pork driven NASA...

Meanwhile, Private enterprise produced an entirely new, far advanced/economical booster/capsule far beyond anything NASA is capable of... For only $300 million...
So, space is not so hard for the efficient, innovative, spirited...

The total 12flight SpaceX COTS supply contract is for less than the cost of a single NASA shuttle flight...
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Downix
03:13 PM on 05/31/2012
I've not heard of SpaceX cutting its costs to $10 million per launch, which is what would be needed to cut the price by a factor of four for the Falcon 9's payload. Please point me to that announcement.

(50 satellites worldwide, of which the majority are carried by Chinese and Russian launch vehicles which cost less than the Falcon 9 does now)
02:04 AM on 05/23/2012
With private enterprise, multiple players are possible, thus offering consumers the benefit of choice and consequently competition. When NASA is the one player, then obviously those with a need or desire to go to space are going to face more barriers. But with the world of private spaceflight taking off, then there will be more than just SpaceX - there will be Orbital Sciences, Sierra Nevada, Blue Origin, StratoLaunch, Virgin, etc. More than one of these players is pursuing Reusable Launch Vehicle technology, which will further bring down costs. The Space Shuttle, technical marvel though it was, was nevertheless quite complex with some even calling it a White Elephant. Sometimes the choices made by public agencies are influenced by political lobbies, and which factory lies in whose district, etc. Private companies can all compete on cost efficiencies, to drive the price of space access down, which in the end serves the greater good.
03:26 AM on 05/23/2012
In fact, the Air Force had a big influence on decisions in the shuttle's development, particularly demanding double the carrying capacity of NASA (and, thereby, more than doubling weight, which changed the fuel requirements) and requiring additional maneuverability for planned launches from California and polar orbits. In the end, the Air Force used the shuttle for just 11 missions, and the shuttle never needed to launch from the West Coast and fly the tougher orbit. In other words, yes, SpaceX and the others are entering the endeavour at a completely different historical and technological moment and with lower costs for various reasons.
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Downix
03:17 PM on 05/31/2012
Also you can thank the USAF for the solid boosters, a requirement for allowing NASA to help carry the support costs for the ICBM program that used the same manufacturing.
12:26 AM on 05/23/2012
"we must risk failure to make the new future. "

That is exactly what the SpaceX engineers DID NOT DO. They avoided unnecessary risk by programming the vehicle to go into a safe mode if there was the slightest detectable malfunction. And THAT was the right thing to do. This has nothing to do with spaceflight being hard. It's actually no harder than open heart surgery or detecting the Higgs particle (I would even claim that it is actually easier)... it just requires a different set of detailed technical skills than ANY non-trivial human effort.

Let me put this in a clear context for you: it took SpaceX ten years to get here. That's why SpaceX engineers and technicians don't mind delaying a crucial launch by six months, then by another three months and then by three more days. These delays simply don't matter. What matters is that they made it to orbit without a hitch.

Not only that... ten years is a SHORT period of time. Many space missions take 25 years from initial conception to success. Some projects took 40... which is basically the whole professional career of many of the people involved in them!

Soon mankind will, as a whole, embark on science projects that will take centuries to finish. And I have a strong feeling (based on physics) that we will, even before this millennium is over, start one or two that will take longer than all of recorded human history!
03:30 AM on 05/23/2012
Good points. The development of the space shuttle was indeed complicated in ways that SpaceX's development of the Dragon capsule and Falcon rocket are not. You have me thinking about how we define a science project, as it's not always easy to see the beginning (or to know the beginning at the time) and often more difficult to see the end because more questions and challenges open up ahead. I hear your excitement.
ThinkCreeps
Seriously, it's time.
06:31 AM on 05/23/2012
Crucially, that's ten years with private funding.

Few venture capitalists, and almost no public companies would be able to take such a long view.
12:24 PM on 05/24/2012
Elon Musk did... with his own money. I have a strong feeling that it took a lot of "faith" by those who listened to him that SpaceX might actually succeed. Money is not always everything... sometimes it takes a great amount of charisma and vision... and oddly enough, the man seems to have both, even though he does not look it on first sight.
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DSherline
Idiocracy is already happening
06:24 PM on 05/22/2012
Nice article. I'm starting to like some of these blogs better than the "hard news". At least better than HuffPo's "hard news".
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Margaret Lazarus Dean
03:55 PM on 05/22/2012
What a smart post (and not only because you quote me!). So much of what I read about space is so one-note, it's a pleasure to read something that reflects the real complexity of the situation. A lot of us (including me) are still mourning the shuttle and the patriotic spirit of NASA-run spaceflight, but if we love going to space we can't help but admire anyone with the tenacity to do it. And this week that includes SpaceX.
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Chris Yoder
Vote down CISPA
03:42 PM on 05/22/2012
We need to go to space so that humanity does not destroy itself.
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nadohawk
Let's bring love back to liberalism
02:03 PM on 05/22/2012
SpaceX is one of many possibilities for the future. NASA is the failure.
05:06 PM on 05/22/2012
To declare NASA a failure is overly simplistic. The relationship between NASA, Congress, and the traditional aerospace industry is a failure. And with the arguable exception of Congress, I find it hard to pin the blame on any one of the three.

It's a bad marriage, and NASA's Commercial Orbital Transport Services (COTS) program has been a remarkably successful experiment in seeing other people. It redefines the relationship between NASA and industry and lowers barriers for new ventures like SpaceX to compete with industry giants like Boeing and Lockheed Martin. And it dramatically reduces the role of Congress in allocating contracts based on patronage.

SpaceX designs and builds their vehicles from start to finish under one roof. It's cheaper, faster, and more efficient that way. The check valve issue was resolved so quickly because the SpaceX engineers in launch control at the Cape were the same engineers who designed and developed the engine. There were no subcontractors involved.

Before COTS, NASA couldn't get funding for a streamlined operation like this. They had to get 60 Senators on board, and that means there had to be something in it for 20-30 different states. Lockheed Martin boasts that the Orion crew vehicle (financed under traditional NASA procurement) involves suppliers in 37 states. That's how you get these projects funded, and it's a big part of why costs spiral out of control.
07:00 PM on 05/22/2012
Several interesting, succinct points to consider. A good way to extend the conversation. New ventures like SpaceX are indeed an experiment in shifting the relationship among entities on the ground as well as sending people to the ISS. I'm not sure that it'll be a model that works for more ambitious space exploration, but SpaceX and other companies are sure hoping it is. The ability of SpaceX to be doing what it's doing this week certainly depended on NASA doing what it did for decades, so if SpaceX is any success at all, some credit must be given to NASA.
01:03 PM on 05/22/2012
This is nothing but awesome.
03:44 PM on 05/22/2012
You said it! Very inspiring! And NASA, although maybe a little rudderless right now, deserves a lot of credit for knowledge transfer!