Writers' Strike: Is Political Posturing About to Trump Good Economics?
I'm about to get myself in a lot of trouble. So be it... Listening to both sides in the looming writers' strike, it's clear to me that politics is about to trump sound economics. Neither the Writers Guild nor the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers is looking at the issue properly.
If you look at the amount of money that was at issue during the last writers' strike in 1988, I bet it was less than the amount the strike ended up costing all concerned. And I believe that will be the case this time around, too.
Expecting movie studios and television networks to change with the times is not asking too much. New technologies have dramatically altered Hollywood's economic landscape, but the AMPTP is still clinging to a revenue model that was created back in the days of Lew Wasserman and Abe Lastfogel - and was, as I understand it, adopted from the record business (you remember records, don't you?). The movie business took the formula used for calculating record royalties and basically transferred it to the sale of videotapes (you remember videotapes, don't you?). What's more, the current royalty formula for DVDs factors in the cost of manufacturing (today's electronic DVDs and web downloads, of course, cost absolutely nothing to "manufacture"). Clearly, the media world has gone through a major evolution since Lew and Abe, and it's time for its business practices to follow suit.
On the other hand, what the representatives of the Writers Guild have to remember is that all union contract negotiations are to set minimums, and that the effect of the change in residuals from DVDs and New Media they are seeking will not rise to the level of revenue they are asking for - or what the strike is going to cost the Guild's active members. Once again, the eventual cost of a strike will exceed the financial gain being sought.
Going on strike to lose more than you gain is not smart negotiating.
Both sides should also keep in mind that TV ratings have fallen significantly over the last few years, and the movie box office hasn't been all that great either.
But, who knows, maybe clearer heads will prevail - and sound economics will supersede political posturing. Let's hope so, not only for the sake of the writers, the studios, and the networks but for the millions of people in the community who will be hurt by a strike, including below-the-line workers and all those who aren't in show business but whose livelihood is dependent on a Hollywood that is up and running.
Read more thoughts about the strike on Huffington Post's writers' strike opinion page
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So we get a few hundred more reality shows, so what?
I hope the strike goes on forever.
It is so typical for people like Ari to second-guess, after the fact, the decisions made by a Union and its members to strike -- and then to publish smart-sounding articles that are simply thinly disguised attacks on the strikers and their leaders.
Ari knows better than the union leaders and members. F--k you, Ari.
Union leadership and membership are fully aware of the issues raised by self-trumpeting scabs who write articles like this. The unioin leadership and members have discussed them at length and have come to a conclusion -- that despite the risks involved they have little alternative. No one WANTS to strike. Those who do understand they can might be replaced by scabs and will lose income necessary to take care of families and themselves. Because of this, well prior to the strike, all of the considerations set forward by Ari have been discussed and despite them, the union through its members strike.
Once that happens, people like Ari should be supporting the strike or shutting the f--k up. What's necessary it to publish articles explaining the risks and exposing the exploiters for being just that -- exploiters, not to publicly second-guess the strike decision.
Ari writes: "today's electronic DVDs and web downloads, of course, cost absolutely nothing to 'manufacture' "
Can we agree to squash the notion that everything about the internet is free? Do you think that roads and highways are "free"? Try setting up a major internet destination with streaming content and/or downloads that consume large amounts of bandwidth. You'll find that such endeavors are far from free. Although not manufacturing per se, these costs are real and they are associated with delivering creative content in an online context. Delivering content a la iTunes ain't nothin' like posting your grandmother's birthday party on YouTube.
What do you get when you put a bunch of writers out of work?
More political bloggers.
Under our system, a fat-cat who figures out how to steal the pensions of workers is given a huge bonus. When the day comes that corporate thieves go to jail for what should be crimes, instead of getting bonuses, it will be a great day for this country.
In an ideal world, there would never be a strike, and never the need for a strike.
Respect for the employers, and respect for the employees, would mean there would never be a strike, but since strikes do happen, something is lacking.
Having been in the position of having gone out on strike, I know first hand that it is not just about wages. It is about a secure future. Only a fool bites the hand that feeds, and only a fool tries to steal food from the mouth of someone who is hungry. A win-win solution is best, but the fact is that in this country the laws are skewed toward employers.
Non zero sum game contests always cost both opponents. Look at all the money wasted by both sides in the cold war. Letting your opponent win and make you his bitch is a higher price to pay.
Anyone with a new idea about how to stop this insanity speak up and invent a new economic system.
Capitalism sucks.
"Going on strike to lose more than you gain is not smart negotiatin
This is not necessarily true. Even if you lose more than the amount you're fighting over, if your bosses lose even more, proportionally, they'll be the ones to come back to the table.
This strengthens the position of the strikers against the boss, even after a net financial loss.
Ultimately, money is about power over people, not just material wealth.
I think a strike at the propaganda factory, there, ain't such a bad thing. Alec Baldwin
wrote about it, and I put a message under that
thread: Let's see some good quality sci-fi
come out of Hollywierd, instead of all of
these treacly, message-laden shoot-em-up/chick
flick/what
AWAY, and someone sit down and bust out a
script, not an 18-parter like Lucas, but
rather something more like Spielberg did
with Close Encounters. Kucinich said he
saw a UFO, well, why not do something like
that? Mars Attacks was corny, but fun,
Lost In Space was kind of Disney, Alien
turned into a Marine Corps commercial
at some point, Apollo 13 was kind of cool,
how about one where we actually build a base
on the moon? That'd truly be a work of fiction,
but a fun story anyway, they once had a TV
series about that kind of thing, Space 1999,
sci-fi, but not set SO far in the future
as to be completely 'out there', put me
down for wanting a techy science fiction
movie, whenever they hire the scab writers...
Ari,
Small wonder that an agent would confuse principles for "political posturing.
If the writers don't take a stand, nobody else will.
“After God had finished the rattlesnake, the toad, the vampire, He had some awful substance left with which He made a scab.
A scab is a two-legged animal with a cork-screw soul, a water-logged brain, a combination backbone of jelly and glue. Where others have hearts, he carries a tumor of rotten principles.
When a scab comes down the street, men turn their backs and angels weep in heaven, and the Devil shuts the gates of Hell to keep him out.
--- Judas Iscariot was a gentleman compared with a scab. For betraying his master, he had character enough to hang himself. A scab has not.
Esau sold his birthright for a mess of pottage. Judas Iscariot sold his Savior for thirty pieces of silver. Benedict Arnold sold his country for a promise of a commission in the British Army. The modern strikebreaker sells his birthright, his country, his wife, his children and his fellow men for an unfulfilled promise from his employer, trust or corporation.
Esau was a traitor to himself: Judas Iscariot was a traitor to his God; Benedict Arnold was a traitor to his country; a strikebreaker is a traitor to his God, his country, his wife, his family and his class.”
-- Jack London
Okay, Ari, clearly you're saying the producers have not and will not change their formulas for compensating writers despite a marketplace that has undergone a complete revolution. So clearly, they're in the wrong. So what are the writers' choices? They've been caving since the last big strike in '88 - and they didn't get much out of that. The fact is unions are no longer a respected fact of American economic life - and producers are betting that the rich TV writers will worry more about their huge mortgages than about addressing the long term issues that will continue to screw all the writers down the line. I do think the writers need to make a stand and the strike is their only weapon. Even though I secretly think the producers' bet is probably the smart one.
"Both sides should also keep in mind that TV ratings have fallen significantly over the last few years, and the movie box office hasn't been all that great either. "
The problem is that both sides know that and are fighting over the new media ways of exploiting content beyond prime time and box office. What about a reality show about being a one hour show runner during a writers strike?
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