Everything You Need to Understand Palin: B.O.A.

The political world is still reeling from Sen. John McCain's Hail Mary pick of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, who announced on Monday that her daughter is pregnant. Even before this announcement, much attention had been focused on Palin's family and background -- since she was so new to the national stage. Yet if this decision is so shocking, so risky - why did McCain make it?

In an excellent, data-driven analysis, The New York Times' John Harwood offers a short answer: B.O.A. The pick was purely reactive, he explains, driven by the politics of Bush, Obama and abortion. In his second term, President George W. Bush has exploded the GOP brand:

On Election Day 2004, exit polls showed there were as many voters claiming allegiance to the Republican Party as there were self-identified Democrats. Nearly four years later, surveys show Democrats with an edge of nearly 10 percentage points in party self-identification. To win under those circumstances, McCain strategists calculate that he must draw roughly 55 percent of independents and 15 percent of Democrats, besting the 48 percent and 11 percent that Mr. Bush drew four years ago.

Then there's the unique challenge of running against a candidate who has consistently enlarged the voting pool:

If Mr. Obama's mobilization drive succeeds in enlarging the Democratic electorate, Mr. McCain's hill would grow even steeper.

McCain could have met the above challenge with other seasoned candidates, like former Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Ridge - who might also have helped put the huge swing state of Pennsylvania into play. But since Ridge is pro-choice, Harwood argues that picking him might also bring an early end to McCain's presidential hopes. The abortion divide is "so deep that even a candidate trying to reinforce his maverick image dare not cross it," writes Harwood.

If you accept Harwood's cold, non-partisan analysis, then two conclusions are inescapable:

First, McCain put politics above country in the most important decision of this campaign. (More from Michael Cohen here.)

Second, he is in a far weaker political position than his campaign -- and most of the press -- have acknowledged. He is in a completely reactionary posture, struggling to respond to realities created by far stronger forces than he can muster - the politics of Bush, Obama and Abortion.

From The Washington Independent.

Comments

[patianneb]

That Hail Mary may be on the verge of becoming an Oh S**t!

It's very easy to understand SP: Think self-absorption, overwhelming ambition, and a preda*ory appetite for red meat, preferably raw.

And oh yes, a huge mirror and some pink lipstick.

[OrangeSam]

Phew! What a relief! I was looking for a serpent.

[bgregs]

Sorry, that should read McBush, not bush!

[bgregs]

It's the latter! The reason that bush chose Palin is that he needed a STRONG right winger, and the rest of them turned him down.

[Bobrobert]

roflmao

roflmao
roflmao

roflmao
roflmao
roflmao

The pick could not be any better if this were a movie.

:-)

Obama/Biden 08

[JXB]

There is good appeal to this argument, but it does seem to leave something unexplained, namely the fact that there are many much more qualified pro-life Republicans out there, including women, than Palin. Why not one of them? Could it be that the McCain camp approached a number of them and was turned down?

[Ari Melber - Huffpost Blogger]

Who are the conservative, pro-life women Republicans that you have in mind?

[Fairfloss]

Oh boy, lets "Geraldine Ferraro," Sarah Palin. Let attack her and her daughter and her husband and her handicapped infant son. Lets just do it again, so their will never be a woman in such a high ranking office. Sexism? Is there such a thing? Ask Walter Mondale's former running mate, Geraldine Ferraro, from 1984.

Funny how men can do anything and still get elected. (Everyone knew Governor Bill Clinton was a philander. As was JFK. Take a good look at Senator Edward Kennedy's history.)

But a woman gets to close to the Presidency and the ruthless scrutiny begins.

[SamBe]

And not only does her daughter have a child out of wedlock (anathema to conservatives -- if it were a democrat) but it's possible that Sarah Palin's first child was conceived out of wedlock (Married on August 29, 1988, child on April 20, 1989). To quote an Obama add, "Hmmmmmm..."