Eyeing 2012 Versus President Obama

Politics turns on speed and preemption, so it's not surprising that some people are already rushing to handicap the political landscape for an Obama presidency.

It's premature, I think, but even some Republican leaders are saying Obama will win by a landslide, and politicos are sizing up the potential challengers to a President Obama.

This kind of chatter, however speculative, has the practical effect of undermining Sen. John McCain's attempts to regain momentum. It also fosters the notion that McCain's attacks on Sen. Barack Obama have less to do with important policy differences than with efforts to rescue a "losing" campaign.

If the predictions are right, however, smart Republicans won't wait until November to work on their game plan.

These thoughts were prompted by a note I just received from an astute Democratic operative. Ticking through recent Republican pronouncements about a McCain loss, the operative, who has worked on several presidential campaigns, lays out an intriguing case for why Republicans are not only worried but worrying out loud:

I think that not only do the Republicans know the election is over; they are sensing that an Obama presidency could be highly successful. Obama will have:

1. Large congressional majorities (and fairly liberal majorities -- the conservative Southern Dems that plagued Clinton and Carter are gone).


2. The media will not stop talking about the implications of having an African American president for months -- virtually no democracy outside India has elected an ethnic minority as its leader (I can only think of Leon Blum, the first Jewish leader of France during the height of European anti-Semitism in the 1930s as the only thing that strikes me as more extraordinary. [Disreali was an Anglican of Jewish heritage]). Obama will have an incredible honeymoon period.


3. The opposition GOP is a mess without a clear opposition leader - there is no Newt Gingrich or what Hillary [Rodham Clinton] would have become if McCain had won or what Reagan was to Carter. While the Republicans are better in opposition and will win a lot of seats in 2010, all their biggest "stars" (maybe minor celebs is a better term) are governors--Satah Palin, Bobby Jindal, Tim Pawlenty, etc.

All this will allow Obama to do what has to be done to turn the economy around in two to three years and insure his reelection. There really aren't any excuses.

After 1932, the Dems held the White House for 20 years, and after 1980, the Republicans held it for 12 years. While the financial crisis and overall Bush unpopularity are fueling this particular loss, when you add the overall demographic trends, this could be the beginning of a long drought for the GOP.

An early time to talk about a long drought, to be sure, but that's the landscape some Democrats are eyeing.

Ari Melber is traveling with the Obama campaign for The Washington Independent, blogging from the road here and Twittering here.

Comments

[Mamin]

The media and some pundits were hostile to Huckabee.
He was supposed to debate McCain, but CNN cancelled it
and McCain refused to debate him. Malkin and some other pundits
said that Huckabee wasn't a conservative. What a joke!
He was the only conservative among candidates.
They didn't like him because his son killed a dog.What a joke!

[BluePride]

Palin would have NEVER made it through the repub primaries... Talk 'bout an attack submarine. Obama has VISION: A Change Is Gonna Come:

Sam Cooke:
http://current.com/items/89406051_obama_08_a_change_is_gonna_come

Patti LaBelle:
http://current.com/items/89408176_obama_2008_a_change_is_gonna_come

The Supremes:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VDpr8wHdhlQ

[JimO]

Does anybody else think Sarah Palin will be impeached in Alaska after the general election? I don't see much of a future for her except maybe on Fox network.

[escorpion]

If McCain loses, there will be open warfare among the many factions of the republican party - social conservatives, wall streeters, populists, etc. - and only one thing is certain - it will be bloody. It's impossible to predict who will survive and become number one, but whoever it is, he or she will be so battered and weakened, the Dems will have nothing to worry about for a long time.

[stonelaw]

Ok, so Barack hasn't won yet - but ASSUMING he does win, here's what will happen in 2012.

First, the religous, conservative, out-of-touch Republicans still hold on to the notion that their beliefs represent those of main-stream America. They truly believe that most everyone else thinks along their lines. If not, they're anti-God, anti-Jesus, anti-American and should simply be ignored.

So when it comes to picking out a candidate in 2012, they're look for a man (yea, Sarah ain't no man, really - she can be secretary of the boy scout club, but not Pres., VP or Treasurer - that's how it was in the 50's and that's how it should be today).

And that man will have to pass all right-wing tests and probably even more. Just look at the 1936 campaign against President Roosevelt - Alf Landon, whom FDR destroyed 27 million to 16 million. But Landon fit all the requirements of the day for the ultra-right who had also stolen the Republican party.

So who will it be? Who cares? Obama now and Obama in 2012!!!

Re-Elect President Obama in 2012!

[sociocanuck]

Wait. Why is everyone down thread predicting the GOP nominee, when doing so is clearly near-impossible (remember when Rudy Ghouliani was considered a front-runner?)? I feel a bit safer predicting who will throw their hats into the primaries: it's garuanteed to include Jindal, and Romney or some other moderate Republican replacement, highly likely even Huckabee will appear again.

There even will be a draft Palin movement from the nuts who won't have given up on her despite catastrophic loss; but the only way I see it working out is if ambition really has totally clouded her better judgment - which I admit seems likely.

[Skeptiqone]

What will be especially fun will be when Sarah Palin, who has had her ego ridiculously inflated, will run for President in 2008, and we will watch all the Republicans trash her in the primaries, you know, the same guys who are saying how talented and mavericky she is now.

[ZenSufi]

Jindal '16: Obama 2.0?

Kinda too early to be speculatin' such notions.

[Phaedrus21]

Other than skin tone, there's absolutely nothing these two have in common.

[SeanGardner]

absolutely.

[Wilbur]

Can we have just ONE ELECTION at a time........PLEASE????????????????????

Wilbur

[ElBruce]

I've said it before and I'll say it again. The Republican ticket in 2012: Phil Gramm and an adorable puppy.

[Skeptiqone]

Thanks for that... I needed a good laugh.

[Lotus19]

Ari...where've you been? I've missed you ever since you set the "GOP hack" straight on his lies. You were awesome and you should definitely be in front of the cameras more often,

"All this will allow Obama to do what has to be done to turn the economy around in two to three years and insure his reelection. There really aren't any excuses"

Obama will be positioned to do good work, surrounding himself some of the best advisers this country has seen, I'm sure. However I don't put anything past the Republican machine. God only knows what they'll pull next as a distraction, even after he gets in office.

[SocialistDistortion]

Once again, another assumption that the presidency is in the bag for O bama...THIS IS NOT OVER!

Before we even start thinking about a possible GOP strategy, let's get O Bama in the White House first. This sense of complacency around here lately is sickening and worrying at the same time. Have you already forgotten how well John Mc Cain does when he is playing from behind?

[DennyCrane]

Palin will be blamed for McCain's loss and Rudy Giuliani won't be able to play the 9/11 card anymore. Of the remaining contenders, only Mitt Romney has any chance of beating Obama. The only other Republican who could mount a serious challenge to Obama is the one Republican who can't run for President. He'll have to settle for being governor of California.

[tuttlemsm]

I don't know about that. Once the "change" genie is out of the bottle, one Bobby Jindal is a *very* talented politician.

[DennyCrane]

This guy is overhyped. The reason the Republicans like him is because his views are just as extreme as Palin's. The reason McCain won the nomination is because he was perceived as more of a moderate and appealed to Independents. But he shot himself in the foot by picking Palin. Republicans will come away from this election with the realization that a moderate has a better change of beating Obama, not an extreme right-winger like Palin or Jindal. Take away their race and gender and neither of these two is noteworthy.

[J-Rome]

Talented or not, I doubt sincerely that the conservative base of the Republican party are mature enough mentally to vote for a man of Indian decent.

[Paris68]

This is CRAZY!... We've still got 3 weeks, folks. That's a lifetime in politics. This thing is NOT over yet. Anything could happen!

That said, Pawlenty looks pretty well positioned for 2012. But if McCain loses, there will likely be a significant realignment on the right. Remember, prior to the thumping in '06, it looked like George Allen or Bill Frist were going to be the natural heirs to King George's fortunes.

[shyamg22]

jindal will have a tough time imo getting independents with his religious views and exorcisms .

[SaintZak]

I think the Republicans will have to begin to ween themselves from the religious right. They're losing much of their strength which was built on blunt-force bully tactics and fear mongering. The Gov from Alaska has not only appealed to this base, but to another element on the darkest fringe. The Republicans will need to recreat themselves after this election or they're in real trouble.