How Did Clinton and Obama Win the Nevada Caucus?

So the Clintons like Nevada after all.

Hillary Clinton beat Barack Obama by about six points in the state's caucus on Saturday, netting 12 of the 25 delegates at stake. But Barack Obama won the number that could matter most, earning 13 of Nevada's national convention delegates, which ultimately determine the Democratic nominee. That made for a "split decision," according to Congressman James Clyburn, an influential member of the House Democratic leadership who is unaffiliated with any candidate. Obama sounded even more confident on Saturday, saying "we came from over twenty-five points behind to win more national convention delegates than Hillary Clinton because we performed well all across the state, including rural areas where Democrats have traditionally struggled." But it's not that simple.

Rural areas did secure Obama's delegate edge. His five-point lead in the rural section of Nevada's Second Congressional District, which stretches across most of the state north of Las Vegas, won him the single delegate at stake there. With one delegate in play, caucus math is winner-take-all. So while Clinton won about 43 percent of the area, she had no delegates to show for it. And the delegates are weighed by past voter registration -- not the actual turnout on Saturday -- which can also widen a gap with the true popular vote. But the popular vote is not actually available.

The Nevada Democratic Party only released a statewide tally of local delegates. There are over 10,000 of them; Clinton has about half (5,335). But local delegates do not reflect a pure popular vote. Just like national delegates, if a local precinct only has one delegate, then it's winner-take-all. Precinct totals can exaggerate the support for the candidate in the lead, and minimize the totals for a trailing candidate. (That's why John Edwards' Nevada turnout appears unusually low.) If you think reading about this system is hard, just imagine caucusing.

Or just try explaining it. The AP and cable networks initially misreported Obama's delegate count. (The Nation first reported Obama's delegate lead.) The AP quickly caught the error, but its new article still incorrectly refers to the precinct totals as a "popular vote." And on caucus night, the pundits were already talking about John Edwards' collapse, as if the statewide tally was a popular vote.

The arcane caucus rules are not only important because they determine -- and potentially distort -- the voters' will. The caucus itself was a controversial issue all week, as the Clinton campaign said parts of the system were unfair and potentially illegitimate. President Clinton ratcheted up the rhetoric on Friday, saying he personally witnessed voter suppression by members of a union backing Obama, an explosive charge that senior Clinton aides could not substantiate. (NBC's Chuck Todd pressed the issue on a Saturday conference call for reporters.) But in another curveball for this primary season, Hillary Clinton actually benefited from the caucus arrangements her campaign assailed, especially on the Las Vegas Strip. She dominated turnout at the 9 major casinos, which made an arrangement with the state party so that employees could caucus away from home. She won the most "at-large delegates," which President Clinton slammed as patently unfair because they counted "five times as much as everybody else." And her statewide numbers may be slightly higher than the true popular vote. Obama benefited too, of course, nabbing a national delegate in a region where Clinton's support was perfectly strong.

It all comes back to national delegates, since they pick the nominee. After Nevada, the Obama Campaign began circulating delegate-obsessed quotes from Clinton aides. ("You've got to remember this [is] about getting delegates." Terry McAuliffe! "This is a race for delegates...It is not a battle for individual states." Howard Wolfson!) But Nevada, like many states, does not bind national delegates by the actual turnout. Delegate preferences can technically change at the Nevada state party convention, held in April. (Many state parties operate on the premise that the nominee will be decided by the time of their conventions, anyway.) The Clinton campaign invoked the convention in a three-sentence rebuttal to Obama on Saturday night: "Hillary Clinton won the Nevada Caucuses today by winning a majority of the delegates at stake. The Obama campaign is wrong. Delegates for the national convention will not be determined until April 19." Jill Derby, Chair of the Nevada State Party, also spoke out on delegates as the results came in. She emphasized that national delegate counts are "based upon an assumption that delegate preferences will remain the same," when in fact they could change at the convention. Derby added a disconcerting line to hammer the point home: "We look forward to our county and state conventions where we will choose the delegates for the nominee that Nevadans support."

Translation: If this thing is close, "we" party insiders will "choose" for the rest of the state.

At least the sparring over delegates has forced out a rare political confession, helping expose the distortions of these party rules. And the reforms present themselves: Require binding votes, absentee voting rights, proportional measurement and a true popular vote.

Updates: OpenLeft's Chris Bowers compares media coverage of indirect democracy in Nevada and in the electoral college. CNN breaks down the numbers. At Daily Kos, kid oakland tees off this column to question Bill Clinton's role in voter suppression. And The Nation's Chris Hayes goes rural.

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This column first appeared at The Nation.

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Comments

[Crowhaul]

But, really, how could Nevadans vote for a guy like Romney who - I'm not kidding - believes in the planet of Kolob?

Oh wait...it's because a lot of Nevadans, as mormons, also believe in Kolob.

Scary times, these...

[Doofus]

Interesting to note, to say the least, that in Nevada, by the
popular vote, Romney is the winner by far,
with four times as many votes as his nearest
Demo competitor. And even Ron Paul finally DOES
come in second.

Romney 22,649

Paul 6,087

McCain 5,651

Clinton 5,355

Obama 4,773

Huckabee 3,616

Thompson 3,521

Giuliani 1,910

Hunter 890

Edwards 396

[bacaangel]

More and more people are tired and turned off by staged polititcians - like the answers given the other night at the deabe--Hillary's greatest weakness is how much she cares for the people. Edwards also gave a phony answer which seemed more about his compassion than a weakness. GIVE ME A BREAK! Politicians who give these contrived and phony answers are more concerned about themselves and not about you, the people. They are not trying to connect with you in any meaningful way, but trying to manipulate you -- by staged and phony answers, Washingtonian Answers.

In this era of the Greening of America, people are moving toward a more holistic way of living: organic foods and household items free of pesticides and chemicals, more effecient appliances to aid in the cleaning up of greenhouse gases among other things, solar and wind -- clean energy. However, we also want more Efficient and Cleaner Politicians. Ones we can believe in and ones we know are speaking to us, not at us, who are not trying to control and manipulate the us, the masses, for their own personal gains. That's how we get into wars by politicians who go along to get along for their OWN PERSONAL GAIN and not concerned about the degradation of what will happen to You, the Planet, and -- to the PEOPLE! I am hoping that Barack Obama will be a a different kind of candidate, the candidate of our hopes and dreams and in truth and integrity. It is hard against these forces of materialism, lies and spin.

[nomobull]

I'm just glad that I'm not alone in my confusion. Now I understand why so many dislike the caucus

[Nutcase]

There was no split decision. This was a celebrity race. The headlines don't say Obamma might have gotten one 13 delegates to Clinton's 12. That is somewhere down in the copy. The headline is that Clinton won. That is what will register with almost all voters in subsequent contests.

cognito ergo populistae

[myskylark]

The caucus process is anti-democratic and should be outlawed by the national conventions. The actual votes are never published, the delegates are chosen by a convoluted mathematical formula, there are no secret ballots, and some voters get to vote twice if their first choice doesn't get enough votes to be "viable." The votes for Clinton and Edwards both, are more than the published numbers indicate. I think we were better off with politicians in smoke-filled rooms. We actually got a lot of good candidates in those days.

[Terror Cheese]

Answer: Both of them DIDN'T win. CLINTON won.

Seriously, the probama spin here and elsewhere online is dizzying. The Obamatons might want to think about returning to the reality-based community someday soon. Either that or upping their anti-psychotic meds.

[lynnn]

Again, HRC/B only has one real message: inevtablity, they need the media to misrepersent things. If you are an Obama supporter, counter by sending that 49 minute video (the Reno interview) to all of you friends and family. Also send the ADL link to them.
One more thing that you should send to all women. It is all about word of mouth.
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/01/18/trying_to_heal_a_rift_in_new_h_1.html

[lynnn]

What is the word on Rahm why did Newsweek say he has not endorsed?

[BUSHsurvivor]

It's all so confusing!

[Professornitpick]

BTW, why don't you inform your readers how many delegates Hillary won in Iowa Caucuses, in spite of coming in third. Was it a Clinton win? she got 3 times the delegates that Obama got. She let him have his glory and momentum such as what it was. If you do not knwo about ti check it out. No one has remarked on that.

The caucuses are a rotten process, just like electoral college, winner take it all elections, as well as people named Ari have taken a shine to Clintons;-)

[Thorn]

This is already stale at 9:44 Eastern time.

[Jazz42]

After all of the swiftboating that went on by Bill Clinton.
It is possible that Hillary Clinton is going to lose the delegate count. At best she can win the delegates by one.
Although she won the caucas vote by 6%. It is a virtual tie, considering Hillary led by 20 to 25 points a few weeks ago

[raptor]

Boy, and I thought trying to explain the Electoral College to foreigners was tough. So is the bottom line that popuar votes don't count for anything, either primary season or general election? Remember those who think Gore and Kerry were robbed, despite their popular vote counts?