It was a blowout. By winning over 60 seats in the House, with close races still trickling in Wednesday morning, the anti-Obama wave of 2010 has already secured a prominent place in American history. Even conservative estimates -- say low 60s -- will place the 2010 midterms well above some of the largest shifts in party power in the modern era. This is bigger than the Newt revolution, which netted 54 seats in 1995, and signifcantly higher than the 49 seats that Democrats took after Watergate. In fact, you have to go back to the dramatic backlash to FDR in 1938 to find a midterm wave larger than the angry tsunami that crested on Tuesday. (The GOP netted 81 seats that year.) So what does that mean?
Since so much of our political discourse lives in an imagined future, like some sort of really annoying version of T2, analysts were spining their explanations before most ballots were cast.
Today's New York Times has analysis from Evan Bayh, a retiring centrist/moderate/presidential aspirant, which was obviously penned before polls closed in order to make it to press. "We were too deferential to our most zealous supporters," he bemoans, (huh?), and Democrats "over-interpreted our mandate." Bayh's solution is to focus more on GOP priorities like tax reform, government spending freezes and entitlement cuts. Third Way, a think tank that was literally founded to push Democrats to the center, has been pushing a similar line this week.
It is truly bizarre, because on Tuesday, voters rejected the very Blue Dog Democrats who have been following that exact approach.
The Blue Dog caucus was literally cut in half yesterday, from 54 to 26 members. Now people can argue whether that is good or bad -- but no serious political observer can say the strategy worked.
Loudly breaking with Obama on health care was not a winner, either. "Of the 34 Democrats who voted against the health care bill in March - 24 of them were Blue Dogs - only 12 won reelection," notes reporter Jon Ward.
With such a strong current for the GOP, of course, there are few signs of what does work for Democrats right now. Yet ruling out the Blue Dog dance is a fine start. As Dr. Paul will tell you, in politics, first, do no harm.
Ari Melber writes for The Nation, where this piece was first published.Follow Ari Melber on Twitter: www.twitter.com/AriMelber
It is something like the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle in Quantum Physics. The very act of observing a particle changes the action or state of the particle because the tool you use to observe it imparts force to the particle. In physics, we generally use light -- photons -- to observe particle states or position. But we never observe what is just there, but what we changed.
The Press observes. But it also reports. It uses large, gripping language. It impacts the electorate. It impacts thinking, position, and motivation. By reporting the impending "wave" or "tsumani" or "asteroid impact" the Press -- Huffpost included! -- communicated to many progressive voters that their votes would not and could not matter, so they stayed away from the polls. The same predictions encouraged conservative voters to participate. By predicting enormous change they created the fulfillment of those predictions.
Fox News with its constant litany of lies and pundits and promotion of fear actually gets it. They know they do not report the news, they make it. They are the kingmakers, the ones who move mountains by stirring up the molehills.
Yes, we blog to help give our opinions and shape the views of others. But the Press acts as a creator of election results, choosing its words and focus with great effect -- and acting surprised at the chaos it
The Republican party was merely a vehicle that special interest groups, who really won, used to buy this election, at great expense and with some help from their friend's on the supreme court.
And their "special interests"? To continue to steal the wealth of this county. Wake up folks
The Democrats did not have the guts to truly explain what they were fighting for. Look at the ones that did, a lot of them won. Boxer, Patty Murray, Harry Reid all won by being progressive and explaining what these laws did.
When politicians blame losses on failures to explain, implicitly they are removing the mistake in thinking from themselves onto the voters.
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Wrong analysis. Blue Dogs waffled on healthcare, while squeezing contributions from the various healthcare groups. Blue Dogs were not leaders. They were opportunists.
The strong support (for our local Blue Dog representative) as part of the Organization for America was transformed to tepid support from local Democrats
In 2008-2010, the deficit and spending became a bigger issue, thus they wanted to look like they cared. They are not deficit hawks, they are opportunists.
Both should give up their leadership spots.
Their lousy leadership is what lead to the House's losses, and Obama's bipartisanship.
It is no way that they should have allowed a minority in the party to side with Republicans to threaten House leadership goals.
Once the majority of the Democrats decided on any issue, the leadership should have DEMANDED discipline, with repercusions to surely follow to the wayward Democrats.
And because of his inability to crack the whip, the Whip, Clyborn, should also be relieved of his post.
Poor leadership in the House, in the Senate and in the White House.
That's the reason for their losses.
Democrats needed to hold to their beliefs... Obama did not and neither did most Dems... Hence, a whopping loss.
This is what happens when you DON'T keep your promises.
You are the only blogger I've read on this site yet who acknowledges the Blue Dog Blowout last night. Your blog is in direct opposition to Mark Penn's elsewhere on this site where I noted the same aspect. Anyone who fails to acknowledge The Blue Dog Blowout in last night's results is just selling snake oil.
In the meantime, Democrats have a great opportunity to recruit candidates in these Blue Dog districts who truly reflect the party's values in 2012. Perhaps that effort will bring more of the Democratic base to the polls.
Now the DNC can finally get serious about purging all the conservatives out of the party!
Let the Goopers have their failed and fraud-based ideology. Since it's never produced anything except truly epic levels of failure, I can't see why anyone would want it anyway.
The House Republicans have been a unified bloc for the past two years, but that was only possible because they had already lost all the seats where it wasn't safe to do that. They will not be as unified now that they have those seats again.