No He Can't: Obama's Real Debate Problem

No he can't. Sen. Barack Obama probably won't "win" the first presidential debate, no matter when it occurs.

Obama is not an expert debater, and if Sen. John McCain's attempt to skip the first debate does nothing else, it suggests that this is Obama's turf. While McCain has risked appearing like he is afraid to spar during a crisis, which seems bad, his actions also signal to voters that Obama must be a tough debating foe. McCain has widened the spread -- against a mediocre debater.

Few deny that Obama is brilliant and inspiring. He is eloquent in big speeches and thoughtful in interviews. His presidential debate performances, however, are lackluster. This was my take on Obama during a Democratic debate in November, during a key stretch of the run-up to Iowa:

Given Obama's sluggish[ness] it's striking to see that he actually spoke more than any other candidate (18 minutes). This was the kind of performance that might give a campaign manager heartburn: a speaker who sounds worse in a small field, when the audience hears extended remarks.

This week, the New York Times conducted a review of Obama's "earlier debate performances," surveyed a range of political analysts, and concluded that he is "uneven" in debates. It's weird, but Obama's strengths can morph into weaknesses during lectern combat: "Obama has a tendency to overintellectualize and to lecture, befitting his training as a lawyer and law professor," notes the article, and "he tends to the earnest and humorless when audiences seem to crave passion and personality." A recent A.P. evaluation was even tougher -- and this is from an objective news article: "Obama has rarely wowed people in political debates. He can come across as lifeless, aloof and windy."

Turn to Obama supporters, and the assessments are even more biting. The Atlantic's Andrew Sullivan, who often runs his blog as a shadow Obama war room, lamented how Obama can deterioirate before your eyes in debates. From April:

It was a lifeless, exhausted, drained and dreary Obama we saw tonight. I've seen it before when he is tired, but this was his worst performance yet on national television. He seemed crushed and unable to react. This is big-time politics... [b]ut there is no disguising the fact that he wilted, painfully.

No one can read voters' minds, but it's a safe bet that they're expecting Obama to look much better than some of those primary debate performances. Given his recent surge in the (often irrelevent) national polls, and a perception that McCain is worried about Obama's debate prowess, the expectations are unrealistically high. The issues still favor Obama, given the twin Republican failures of deregulated markets and deemphasizing Al Qaeda for Iraq. Yet McCain has been clear, from lying to lipstick to running from Friday's debate, he does not intend to win on "the issues."

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Ari Melber writes for The Nation and The Washington Independent, where this piece first appeared.

Comments

[dotwire]

The 'debates" during the primary were not actually debates. This was supposed to be a one-on-one that requires actual thought and the ability to speak in cogent, well formed sentences. No wonder McCain's running for cover. I think Obama will rise to the occasion, and if McCain refuses to show up (thus setting in motion the cancellation of the VP debate, next, which may have been the reason for this charade) Obama will do fine. If McCain does not show, Obama gets 90 mins of free air time to help the 34 million people who tune in make sense of this insane situation. Either way, I'm looking forward to it. It won't have the comedic impact of "I can see Russia from my house" but maybe... just maybe.... people will tune in and learn something. I hope he doesn't feel he needs to dumb it down too much, and I imagine he'll have a rejoinder for the "There you go again" moment that I'm sure McCain will dust off and try to recycle. This is a serious situation, and the fact that McCain has been so cynical - one might even say irresponsible - in the choice of running mates, his grandstanding at the bailouts, the lies, etc etc etc should not be rewarded. If nothing else, this little ploy of theirs got Obama out of Florida for a few days - and they think they threw him off stride, but ... I have confidence that he'll rise to the

[tavote08]

I am curious to know????? When are we going to give Obama a brake.... The man knows exactly what he is doing. The bar has been on a continuous rise since he announced his campaign yet he excels at every level; and still we question his ability to make this happen.

I think he more than anyone knows just how important this election is, on so many different levels. When it has counted the most he has not failed to rise to the occassion.

Ask yourselves after all that he has been thru why is he still here?????
If you still have doubts about his abilities at this junture in the game maybe he's not the one for you.

[Jilli]

Obama improved massively with every debate during the primaries...he will be amazing in Friday's debate because he is proving to be the only one that knows what the heck is going on in this country and around the world, him and Biden that is. I'm not sure I see McCain's suspended campaign and wanting to postpone the first debate as purely political gain for HIM only, I think he wants to do these things in order to give Palin more time to prepare for her debate with Biden, a debate she is surely going to lose and look like a fool in doing so. McCain wants to suspend the first debate scheduled for Friday, Sep. 26th and hold it on Oct. 2nd, the day of the VP debate, and therefore postpone the VP debate to be held on a later date. Helloooo???? Is anyone paying attention? This is almost certainly and purely a political move to try and give Palin more time to prepare for her certain slaughter. It's also another distraction move by the McCain campaign. Since they don't have the strongest presidential candidate or the strongest vp candidate (she's a joke, and not a funny one), all they can do now is play the distraction card, the sexism card and the "We hope the majority of Americans are stupid enough to fall for all of the crap we're pulling" card.

[luvangelHussein330]

Debating has been reduced to sound bites and catch frazes. Obama is a good debater, but slightly sluggish. In todays enviroment/ culture he has to dumb it down.

[ImmanuelKant]

It is sad when a debate must be won on passion and simplicity and not intellect and careful analysis. Nonetheless, that is what all the pundits tell us and some moronically go along with it. Obama's calm demeanor and intellect is exactly why we need Obama as President. We don't need anger, or cuteness or anything that I can think of that is offered by the McCain/Palin ticket.

[milo h minderbinder]

This article makes a good point - debates are all about getting expectations as low as possible then beating them.

If McCain is successful at making people believe that Obama is a skilled debater, virtually anything Obama does will be considered a loss.

[Protools]

The postponement of the debate, in my estimation, is a poltical ploy from the McCain camp. The debates main focus was slated to deal with foreign matters. One of few strong grounds for McCain. With the current economic crisis the debates tone has shifted to the economy, one of McCains weakest points. So why not postpone the debate until the sudo economic crisis is over and with our twenty four hour news cycle minds the focus would be diverted back to foreign policy issues when they did debate. The timing on this debate could not been better for the Obama campaign.

[RNP]

Yeah, I disagree too. John McCain isn't brilliantly lowering his expectations here. Palin can and has claimed the low bar, but McCain has simply eroded his own image. In short, it's the MSM's imagination that anyone will be saying, "My opinion of Obama's performance was affected by McCain's ploys before the debate."

It will be the debate itself, and if Obama continues to deliver his message in the clear, concise, and compassionate way he's perfected lately ("then I've got a bridge in Alaska to sell you", "John McCain calls that a staff meeting", etc.) then "Yes He Can".

[uheardme]

I agree. No one is spinning that McCain is "afraid" to debate Obama, but everyone is puzzled by McCain's hysterical response to the current financial crisis and his attempt to upstage the President and Secy Paulson. McCain is coming across as erratic and unpredictable, not "mavericky".

And like the Georgia-Russia crisis, his political posturing might have made things worse.

[SpoxLogic]

You column reminds me of those people who would pigeon-hole an athlete because of his/her performance from the previous season. You have no idea what they'd been doing in the off-season to become better.
Obama is like a dedicated athlete who has the skills to begin with. If they know they are weak in an area, they work on it to get better.

His performance in the Primaries is just that - his performance in the Primaries. It is no indication of how he would perform now. Heck, he could end up being worse...no one knows until he performs.

[luvangelHussein330]

I think Ari is on another strategic page

[Apis]

Ari,
I have to disagree with you on this one. Although Obama may have had a slow start in early debating, he has found his stride and has gained confidence in his positions and articulations of the issues. I believe he will perform marvelously in the debates! Even increase the perception gap between himself and McSame on "true" leadership for the future of America. Maybe it is just me who really appreciates a thoughtful, smart candidate for President as opposed to desiring a "personality"? Obama does have both, though!

[LongeDeTudo]

Shhhhh, this has just been planted here the day before the debate takes place in a futile attempt to ¨lower the expectations¨ for Obama´s performance.

[Memnoch]

Thats what I thought. But the lowering of expectations for Obama needs to go into USA Today or Fox News. Not here...

And I agree with Ari. McCain can spit out one-liners and catch-phrases all night and probably come across as holding is own. Debates are theater...political professional wrestling.

[milo h minderbinder]

It's funny to see posts from GOP supporters making fun of Obama for his "uh, um" pauses, and yet on the other hand McCain and his people constantly gush about how wonderful a speaker and debater Obama is.

Yeah, it's about trying to set expectations all right.

Do YOU think Obama is a brilliant debater? Or even a consistent one?