Obama Takes Early Lead in Early Vote

Announcing a presidential poll that actually matters! Unlike hypothetical polling -- who might you vote for in three months? -- the launch of early voting means pollsters can survey which candidate is actually stacking up more ballots. Obama has the early lead.

Pew reports today that among people who say they already voted, Obama has a 19 point lead. That's not a small cohort, either. Fifteen percent of those surveyed say they have already voted.

Another 16 percent say they plan to vote early -- and Obama leads that group by 19 points too.

The poll also has numbers on the candidates' current, hypothetical support, with Obama building a 16-point national lead. That's far less relevant than early votes, of course, though Pew's analysis emphasizes a trend showing McCain's supporting eroding and Obama holding strong among those most likely to turn out next Tuesday:

This is the fourth consecutive survey that has found support for the Republican candidate edging down. In contrast, since early October weekly Pew surveys have shown about the same number of respondents saying they back Obama. When the sample is narrowed to those most likely to vote, Obama leads by 53% to 38%.

We often discuss (and report) the campaign as a countdown to a single day of voting, out of habit, but that's obviously inaccurate. The voting has begun, the exit polling has begun, and for the first time, Obama has a lead that actually matters.

--
Ari Melber writes for The Nation and blogs for The Washington Independent, where this first appeared.

Follow Ari Melber on Twitter: www.twitter.com/AriMelber

Comments

[freethepeople90]

Im so worried that obama isnt going to win. and that america will have 4 more awful years. I feel that people are really stepping up there game though. and getting there voices out there. which is great. everyone seems to be more active in this election. this election will make history no matter who wins. its going to make history. and everyone seems to want to be apart of all the buzz. there are more volunteers this election reminds me of when Bobby Kennedy was running. all the excitement and the pride that everyone had. its amazing!

[ohioan73]

Piggybacking off NationalTreasure's comment below: If you have already voted and you have a car, please sign up at the local Obama campaign office and volunteer to give people rides to the polls on election day.

I can hardly believe the motivation of the American people this election cycle. There's hasn't been this much autonomous organization of regular people to my knowledge since the Montgomery Improvement Association organized the bus boycott back in the 60s, before I was born. A whole city of people came together, drove each other to work, repaired vehicles, walked together for over a year. They won.

We will win too if we do it right.

[NationalTreasure]

Do not get over confident, there are seven days left for the republicans to continue with their voter suppression and voter intimidation strategy.

Everyone needs to remember that it is not over until the last vote has been counted.

All of the down ballot Democratic candidates need help from volunteers and need folks to get out and vote for them.

Just by volunteering for two or four hours you can help make a difference.

VOLUNTEER

VOTE