Obama Wins Big on Independents

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The Democrats' Super Tuesday battle offers a revealing yet indeterminate snapshot of a Democratic Party that is unusually energized and firmly divided. Barack Obama won the most states, including pivotal red territory like Missouri, Georgia and Kansas, while Hillary Clinton ran up large margins in the blue strongholds of California, Massachusetts and New Jersey. Final estimates for delegates, which ultimately choose the nominee, were close and still being tabulated overnight.

Across the country, over three million more voters turned out in Democratic primaries than Republican contests -- a trend that persisted even in traditionally conservative states. Turnout in Missouri's Democratic primary was a whopping 70% higher than the G.O.P. contest, for example, where Obama won by a point. The last time the state held two contested primaries, in 2000, Republicans beat Democratic turnout by 56%.

Those numbers suggests that in both Red and Blue states, Democrats are bolstering their ranks with an intense contest between two compelling, celebrity candidates. If Super Tuesday settled anything, it flatly debunked the baseless (and supposedly altruistic) insider concern that a long race is automatically "bad" for the Democratic Party. In reality, a primary's impact depends on the contest, the candidates and the national mood. This one is working wonders for Democratic mobilization.

While Obama strategist David Axelrod reiterated that his candidate is "always the underdog" on Tuesday night, the campaign also seized on the results as evidence that Obama has more national appeal than Clinton. While Clinton scored a few victories in key coastal states like California, she only broke 60 percent in one state, Arkansas. Obama not only won more states, but racked up victories over 60 percent in seven states, buoyed in part by organizing prowess in caucus contests. More consequentially, he won independents by large margins in most regions, including states in Clinton's column, such as Arizona and New Jersey, where one out of five primary voters were independents. He won them by 15 points in Clinton's home state of New York, and by 30 points in California. In the swing state of Missouri, independents flocked to Obama by a decisive 37 points, securing his narrow victory there.

For months, skeptics said Obama might have niche appeal among independents in small states that reward retail politicking, but he could not scale those advantages in a national race. In a single day, Obama proved his independent appeal in about half the country.

In his Tuesday night speech, Obama took the skeptics head on. "I want to speak directly to all those Americans who have yet to join this movement, but still hunger for change. We need you," he said. Calling on citizens who have been "taught to be cynical" to answer the feeling "in their gut," Obama pleaded for support to unite the nation, change American foreign policy and destroy Washington corruption. "We are the ones we've been waiting for!" Obama thundered, adding another memorable, movement-oriented line to his stump speech. (The idea, which has been credited to Arizona's Hopi Tribe and an old civil rights song, recently surfaced in Maria Shriver's endorsement of Obama on Monday.) Obama also said he would draw the best policy contrasts in the general election, as a nominee who flatly opposed the Iraq war, rejecting the Bush-Cheney policy in Iran, and never "wavered" on "fundamental" values like human rights and opposing torture.

While Clinton's speech was less pointed, she also aimed for an inspirational, unifying vision. "Here in America, we face our challenges and we embrace all of our people," she said. "We say with one voice -- give us the child who wants to learn, give us the people in need of work, give us the veterans who need our care. We say give us this economy to rebuild and this war to end!" The closing called on voters to not only back her campaign, but a cause: "Give us this nation to heal, this world to lead, this moment to seize."

Ari Melber writes for The Nation, where this column first appeared.

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Comments

[1dogs2]

Of course the Republican party would prefer to run against Clinton than Obama. They know exactly HOW to run against her. They've had years of practice. But they haven't a clue how to run against Obama. They have seen the revulsion and backlash that race-baiting and ugly misrepresentations regarding Obama's religion and patriotism have caused, so the usual Rovian tactics will be an enormous risk. They know they can out-fear- and out-war-monger Clinton, but what do they do about an anti-war opponent when 2/3 of the country think the war is a disaster? How do they run against the winds of change that are sweeping the country? How do they run against a man who keeps his head and his optimistic outlook even when exhausted, especially when their candidate has a long history of losing it from time to time, and who has a nasty streak in his personality? How do they run against a man around whom the Democratic party will rally when their candidate is frankly despised by a significant part of their party's base?

It would be much easier to run against a candidate who will unite their their party because she is is so deeply disliked by their base and who cannot draw anything like the support from independents that Obama can. Running against Clinton would require little adjustment by the Republicans -- just the same old ugly, divisive, politics-as-usual tactics that have so damaged us for almost two decades.

Finally, the Republicans would rather run against Clinton because even if she won, her coattails wouldn't carry many congressional candidates with her and they could continue to block legislation and ensure that nothing is accomplished in Washington. Even if she were to win, Clinton's post-election honeymoon would last about 5 minutes. Even Democrats who place party above country would do well to contemplate the above.

[westview]

Clinton has carried all the high population states that win the general elections. FL,CA,NY, NJ etc.. The biggest states with the most voters have made it clear they want a strong experienced candidate. That is what matters in the main election. Obama as VP will bring the small low population states along for the ride. That is reality. Stick it to the high population states and once again you will have another losing election.

[axisofelvis]

Hillary is a 'uniter' allright. She unites the GOP in opposition to her. Obama, win or lose, will go down in history as America's last chance to unite behind a truly inspirational figure.

[ShawnMichel]

Those little sheepy shills out there screaming desperately that Clinton has won, CLINTON HAS WON, it's over, IT'S OVER--give themselves away by their little sheepy shrillness.

Obama leads in the delegate count. He has more cash--a lot more. The groundswell for him moves in the double digits weekly. That the Clintonites can't do their math or see reality shouldn't trouble the rest of us.

SMdM

[bellecloche]

Although the Kennedy and Kerry endorsements didn't do much in Massachusetts, it was a pretty bold step for such big Democrat names to align themselves AGAINST her, when she was expected to sweep. Boldness can only denote desperation from such otherwise centrist politicians - they're trying to warn the delegates (not the populace) from the inside that her nomination will be a suicide pact for the party in November. The Republicans are saying it freely, Southern Democrats insinuated it last night, and the even the Northeast old money Democrats know it. That's why they haven't been dousing her in contribution dollars.

[ImayAgree]

I love this, did I just read some people talking third party?
Where did the party unity talk go???
Guess they are too independent to care.

[Boudica]

I thought registered Independents were unable to cast a vote in super Tuesday's NY Democratic primary. If that is correct, the result of the contest doesn't necessarily reflect the outcome of Obama's support.

[MR]

Obama wins big with independents? Oh, gee, great. Maybe he can win the Presidency of the Independent States of American, but as far as the Democratic nomination for President in the US, its over. You dont lose NY, CA, FLA, NJ, MICH,MASS just to name a few and win your party's nomination for President. Spin it any impossible way you want. Its over.

[semorg]

These are the stuff that Clinton News Network (CNN) will not talk about or cover. This is the worst coverage I have seen as it's so biased toward the Clinton campaign.

[SShaw490]

It's possible that the independent vote may have been even stronger for Obama than we thought. In California, an independent could vote in the Democratic primary, but they were given a ballot that they had to clearly mark as a Democratic ballot (as well as marking their choice in candidate). Apparently, very large numbers of independents voted in the Democratic primary, but didn't mark their ballots as Democratic, and their votes weren't counted. That could explain why the California vote was so skewed from where the polling showed it should go. In California, indpendents could ONLY vote in the Democratic primary, pushing even more Obama-leaning independents into that primary, and logically he should have done much better than he did. How many of those mis-marked ballots are out there? Who knows? But there were apparently a lot of them.

Note that I'm not saying anyone did anything wrong - it's just a misunderstanding on the parts of some voters. But it's a misunderstanding that would very strongly benefit Clinton.

[tkk]

Wins Independents. In other words, can't win the Democratic vote.

[sonofloud]

I hate to ruin it for you Obama supports but these so called independents are really Republicans who crossed over to vote for Obama because they know he will be easier to beat.

[AdamsBrain]

The Independent Vote: Rememember, most independents are former Repubs or Dems; when the election comes, they will have to vote for either a Repub or Dem and will likely revert to their original party affiliation. Some independents won't vote at all, or will flip flop. Much will happen over the next 8 months, which is an eternity in American political life. It ain't over until the last election battle is fought in a court somewhere.

[TAHARQA]

Obama's speeches have been polling well. Hillary is trying to mimmick him. Her message keeps morphing to get in line with his. Pay attention to how her speeches has changed this year alone.

[ImayAgree]

yeah those independents who may just vote republican or democrats. I remember CT in 2006 when they and the republicans gave us Lieberman for 6 more yrs..