Palin Deflates Obama's Bounce (With Reply to Readers)

From The Washington Independent

Presidential nominees typically get a bounce out of successful conventions, and Sen. Barack Obama's performance was a hit by any metric. (More on that later.) After a busy weekend, however, national polling shows that Obama got no bounce at all. Gallup:

Obama did not gain any additional support in the poll since his generally well-reviewed acceptance speech on Thursday night.

None. Zip. Zero. Remember, the Democratic National Convention broke several records for overall viewers. Day Two drew five times the ratings of the same day in 2004. Day Four, Obama's address, shattered convention records, topping ratings for "American Idol," the most-watched night of the Olympics and the Oscars. (The Oscars!) The speech thrilled delegates and was heralded across the spectrum -- including this striking praise from conservative Pat Buchanan. If the story ended there, Obama would have surely netted some increase in the polls.

Before the Mile High Speech sunk in at all, however, the McCain campaign dropped its bombshell news about Gov. Sarah Palin. People were shocked, riveted, excited and disconcerted. They were not thinking about Obama anymore. CNN's new poll, like Gallup, shows no bounce for Obama. CNN Polling Director Keating Holland explains that there were two bounces -- or maybe none:

The convention, and particularly Obama's speech, seems to be well-received. And the selection of Sarah Palin as the GOP running mate also seems to be well-received. So why is the race still a virtual tie? Probably because the two events created equal and opposite bounces assuming that either one created a bounce at all.

Now, maybe you'd like a slightly more definitive analysis from the person in charge of the poll, but Holland is candidly noting that tracking polls are inexact and the non-bounce is hard to read. If by "opposite bounces," however, he means that an equal number of supporters of each candidate switched places, that's the less likely explanation. More likely, the undecideds and soft conservatives -- who might have been temporarily swayed by Obama's big night -- stopped in their tracks with the Palin news. That's discouraging, naturally, for all those people who reflexively assume that Palin is hurting McCain. Take The Atlantic's Andrew Sullivan, who emphasizes that undecided voters claim they dislike the pick:

[A]mong the critical undecideds, the Palin pick made only 6 percent more likely to vote for McCain; and it made 31 percent less likely to vote for him. 49 percent said it would have no impact, and 15 percent remained unsure.

So they say. But survey interviews are a "performance of an ideal self," as the writer Alexander Provin explains so perfectly in a review of pollster John Zogby's new book. People may not want to admit -- to themselves, let alone pollsters -- that the running mate affects their vote, or that the simple addition of a woman to the GOP ticket is making them give McCain a second look. Most say the pick is irrelevant (49 percent) or bad (31 percent). Meanwhile, in the aggregate, the same voters appear to be sticking by McCain, defying the usual trends, after Obama's tremendously successful convention.

UPDATE REPLY TO READERS: Several readers note that Obama did slightly improve his numbers over the course of the convention. That's true, but as the above links show, there was no post-convention bounce in national polls from Gallup or CNN. In other words, after Obama gave that amazing address, his support did not budge. That's the point I'm emphasizing -- not that the entire convention had no impact, or that the speech did nothing. (Maybe Obama will rise further as the Palin furor dies down.)

Also, kmac23va posts a great point -- "national polls mean zero in presidential politics," as Obama's aides say. That is certainly true, since an aggregate national poll focuses on a metric that is entirely different from how our elections are actually decided, through the electoral college. For that reason, I do try to avoid covering the national polls much -- and instead criticize their foibles -- but they can give a snapshot of the national mood at key points, like after a convention or major debate.

Anyway, thanks to all for reading and rebutting....

From The Washington Independent

Read more reaction from HuffPost bloggers to John McCain's selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate

Follow Ari Melber on Twitter: www.twitter.com/AriMelber

Comments

[Poyda]

Ari, thanks for getting involved with your commenters.

I have been keeping an eye on fivethirtyeight dot com over the last few weeks. The model used to predict the election outcome discounted any convention bounce. Today, however, the bounce was allowed to 'shine'. Though it was described as a 'small' bounce, it resulted in the odds of an Obama win jumping from mid-50% to mid-60%. I was heartened by that.

[ProudLiberalDan]

Couldn't there be ads on television as soon as Gustav passes pointing out that McCain picked his VP running mate (don't even mention her name) after having only met her once and without vetting her.? He and his running mate will continue George Bush's failed policies for another four years. "John McCain is the REAL dangerous risk this election."

Make this pick about John McCain's bad judgement and unsuitable temperment and their right-wing policies.

[S1m0n]

Palin was defense, not offense. McCain was moving to consolidate his party's evangelical 'base', which was showing strong signs of responding to Obama's joshuwa generation project. His strategists might have been hoping to pick off a few windfalls from the PUMAs, but I doubt they had their hopes set high.

Even if Palin drives off the centrist votes McCain needs to win, she might draw out enough of the evangelicals to save a few republicans down the ticket.

[hominidx]

Fail.

[JRsNana]

Up 5 after speech IS a bump. Biggest since Bill Clinton in 1992.

[nobillary1]

According to the new USAToday/CBS poll today, it's Obama 50% McCain 43%. They say his is his bump! Check it out:
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-09-01-poll-monday_N.htm?loc=interstitialskip

[Root]

Ari, a careful reading of the CNN/ORC poll might have revealed that the underlying dynamics of the race have changed in Obama's favor, even if the topline numbers did not. More people now have a favorable opinion of Obama and the Democratic Party and, perhaps most importantly, women are not moving towards McCain because of the Palin pick. New polls out by CBS and USAToday/Gallup this Monday evening are confirming these internal trends and in addition are showing sizable post-convention bounces for Obama that have *NOT* been deflated by Palin. The CNN/ORC poll, which your posting is largely based, is increasingly looking like an outlier poll, which is why it is dangerous to read too much into a single poll. Btw, the Gallup Daily tracker may not have shown a post-Obama speech bounce, but it moved from a +2 McCain edge to a +8 Obama edge over the course of the convention.

[Ari Melber - Huffpost Blogger]

Thanks Root -- will look over the shift in favorables as you suggest...­.

[coldblooded]

Could you please define exactly what in your world, is a bounce? The guy was down by 1 or 2 points to McCain on the Monday of the convention in Gallup's daily tracking poll and was tied with him in the CBS poll. Then on Friday, a day after the convention and after the Palin announcement, he was up by 8 points in both CBS and Gallup: that's a 9 to 10 point swing in Gallup and 8 in CBS - so how exactly is that not a bounce?

[Vern58]

Errrr- do the math Mr. Melber
I count a10 point jump since the convention. Have you been speaking with Mayhill Fowler???

[naijaman]

Excuse me, Ari, but th USA/Gallup Poll and the CBS poll both show a convention bounce for Obama, and the Gallup Daily Tracking Poll has Obama up by 6, when it had McCain up by 2 just a last week.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/9/1/172042/9475/279/582464

[SaltySaltillo]

This blogger is way off - CBS just published a poll thoroughly demonstrating that Obama not only recieved a bounce, but it was a bounce consistent with many other candidates in the past. Obama recieved a 3 point bounce. Kerry in 04 didn't receive a bounce. Gore in 2000 recieved a 10 point bounce. Clinton in 96 got a 5 point bounce. On the GOP side, Bush got 4 point bounces from both is 2000 and 2004 conventions. Dole got a 6 point bounce in 96. So stop being such a tool and get to the facts: there was a bounce and it was typical of most bounces.

The real question: will there be a MCCAIN bounce?

[luvangelHussein330]

Ditto what everyone else said!! Besides why is this even an issue before anyone has the opputunity to debate. Of course conventions are suppose to look nice and have someone of an impact...b­ut they mostly preach to the choir to get them energized after a long and tiring primary. Darned if he does, darned if he doesn't

[swift goat pet for truth]

What I learn from the Dem Convention:

O does not play for the News cycle.
O does not panic and shoot from the hip.

O plays for winning the war.
Measured, calm, reasoned. Just like I want in a President.

[pb28]

The msm loves the Palin story now the HRC meme is dead. It amazing to watch once again how the msm sucks up every McCain narrative about Palin without ever questioning the validity

[BJMS]

You're an idiot...se­e all the comments below!!!