Palin Deflates Obama's Bounce (With Reply to Readers)

From The Washington Independent

Presidential nominees typically get a bounce out of successful conventions, and Sen. Barack Obama's performance was a hit by any metric. (More on that later.) After a busy weekend, however, national polling shows that Obama got no bounce at all. Gallup:

Obama did not gain any additional support in the poll since his generally well-reviewed acceptance speech on Thursday night.

None. Zip. Zero. Remember, the Democratic National Convention broke several records for overall viewers. Day Two drew five times the ratings of the same day in 2004. Day Four, Obama's address, shattered convention records, topping ratings for "American Idol," the most-watched night of the Olympics and the Oscars. (The Oscars!) The speech thrilled delegates and was heralded across the spectrum -- including this striking praise from conservative Pat Buchanan. If the story ended there, Obama would have surely netted some increase in the polls.

Before the Mile High Speech sunk in at all, however, the McCain campaign dropped its bombshell news about Gov. Sarah Palin. People were shocked, riveted, excited and disconcerted. They were not thinking about Obama anymore. CNN's new poll, like Gallup, shows no bounce for Obama. CNN Polling Director Keating Holland explains that there were two bounces -- or maybe none:

The convention, and particularly Obama's speech, seems to be well-received. And the selection of Sarah Palin as the GOP running mate also seems to be well-received. So why is the race still a virtual tie? Probably because the two events created equal and opposite bounces assuming that either one created a bounce at all.

Now, maybe you'd like a slightly more definitive analysis from the person in charge of the poll, but Holland is candidly noting that tracking polls are inexact and the non-bounce is hard to read. If by "opposite bounces," however, he means that an equal number of supporters of each candidate switched places, that's the less likely explanation. More likely, the undecideds and soft conservatives -- who might have been temporarily swayed by Obama's big night -- stopped in their tracks with the Palin news. That's discouraging, naturally, for all those people who reflexively assume that Palin is hurting McCain. Take The Atlantic's Andrew Sullivan, who emphasizes that undecided voters claim they dislike the pick:

[A]mong the critical undecideds, the Palin pick made only 6 percent more likely to vote for McCain; and it made 31 percent less likely to vote for him. 49 percent said it would have no impact, and 15 percent remained unsure.

So they say. But survey interviews are a "performance of an ideal self," as the writer Alexander Provin explains so perfectly in a review of pollster John Zogby's new book. People may not want to admit -- to themselves, let alone pollsters -- that the running mate affects their vote, or that the simple addition of a woman to the GOP ticket is making them give McCain a second look. Most say the pick is irrelevant (49 percent) or bad (31 percent). Meanwhile, in the aggregate, the same voters appear to be sticking by McCain, defying the usual trends, after Obama's tremendously successful convention.

UPDATE REPLY TO READERS: Several readers note that Obama did slightly improve his numbers over the course of the convention. That's true, but as the above links show, there was no post-convention bounce in national polls from Gallup or CNN. In other words, after Obama gave that amazing address, his support did not budge. That's the point I'm emphasizing -- not that the entire convention had no impact, or that the speech did nothing. (Maybe Obama will rise further as the Palin furor dies down.)

Also, kmac23va posts a great point -- "national polls mean zero in presidential politics," as Obama's aides say. That is certainly true, since an aggregate national poll focuses on a metric that is entirely different from how our elections are actually decided, through the electoral college. For that reason, I do try to avoid covering the national polls much -- and instead criticize their foibles -- but they can give a snapshot of the national mood at key points, like after a convention or major debate.

Anyway, thanks to all for reading and rebutting....

From The Washington Independent

Read more reaction from HuffPost bloggers to John McCain's selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate

Follow Ari Melber on Twitter: www.twitter.com/AriMelber

Comments

[MrUniteUs]

Poll: Obama/Biden Take Eight-Point Lead
Democratic Ticket Gets Boost After Convention, CBS News Poll Finds

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/09/01/opinion/polls/main4405106.shtml

[MrUniteUs]

Gallup disagrees.

Obama rose from 44% before the covention to 49% after the election.

McCain numbers rose after the Palin announcement but Obama's did not fall.

Personally I like the way Obama's handled the hurricane. Avoiding the Photo Op and instead
the encouraging supporters to donate to the red cross, and volunteer to help if necessary.

I also think he was right to call on people not put down Palins daughter for the being pregnant.

The man's a class act.

[Ari Melber - Huffpost Blogger]

Hey I posted a reply above as an update, saying this:

UPDATE REPLY TO READERS: Several readers note that Obama did slightly improve his numbers over the course of the convention. That's true, but as the above links show, there was no post-convention bounce in national polls from Gallup or CNN. In other words, after Obama gave that amazing address, his support did not budge. That's the point I'm emphasizing -- not that the entire convention had no impact, or that the speech did nothing. (Maybe Obama will rise further as the Palin furor dies down.)

Anyway, thanks to all for reading and rebutting....

[nomobull]

yeah right you spin was unwound that's all.

[kmac23va]

I like Obama's campaign people's answer on this...national polls mean zero in presidential politics. With the exception of Nebraska and Maine, you win a state by one vote, you get all their electoral votes. You get to 270, you win. And if you took the Pollster.com map as an example, Obama just has to flip Virginia and it's game over. One state, or a two-state combo even.

[Ari Melber - Huffpost Blogger]

Posted my reply above:
kmac23va posts a great point -- "national polls mean zero in presidential politics," as Obama's aides say. That is certainly true, since an aggregate national poll focuses on a metric that is entirely different from how our elections are actually decided, through the electoral college. For that reason, I do try to avoid covering the national polls much -- and instead criticize their foibles -- but they can give a snapshoot of the national mood at key points, like after a convention or major debate.

[BigMike75]

Good point Kmac, I always laugh at people that quote national polls like their absolutely bullet proof. They are hardly scientific, leave out a variety of variables, and many national polls compete with each other. This is electoral college politics, when it comes to polling people need to apy attention to state polls. In most of the battleground and swing state polls, Obama is either tied or leading, couple this with his ground operation moved to stimulate turnout, this is what had the McCain camp spooked.

[mikecraud]

No bounce??? According to Gallup Obama and Biden were down by 2 points before the convention and up by 8 afterward. Do the math... 10 point bounce.

[marvc]

No bounce, eh? Before Convention, Obama/McCain tied. Last two days of convention Obama 49/ McCain 41 -- eight point bounce. Friday after Palin's selection, Obama 49/ McCain 43.
Sounds to me like Obama got his bounce and Palin only gave McSame a two point uptick for VP selection, about same that Obama got for Biden. So no bounce?

Just more MSM lies and distortions. Obama got an 8 POINT BOUNCE that was not diminished by McPalin, but which only boosted McSame by two points. So why not report the truth instead of shading the facts with BS. A comparison of apple to oranges (Gallup vs. CNN polls) does not make reality suddenly untrue.

[sweetieheartsobama]

Hello - he was up by 8 on Saturday and then by 6 on Sunday. This after, according to Gallup being down 45 to 46 McCain on Monday, August 25.

If you are going to write a an article, at least ensure that it is accurate.

[jhNY]

We are left having to believe that Obama, speaking to a convention that attracted more viewers than ever before in television history, viewers who saw him make a riveting, transcendent speech that even moved Pat Buchanan to spout superlatives, failed to move the pollees' enthusiasms past the margin of error in these latest polls. That would of course mean that the most effective political speaker alive today somehow managed, before the largest audience he's ever had, to produce no discernible effect among them. Pardon me if I find that idea impossible to support in logic.

[DAE]

Wait for Palin's baby bump

[Johnnn]

McCain and the Republicans might get a little boost not from their convention but from how they are considering the plight of Louisiana instead of partying in the twin cities.
Now my question to all my Obama friends is this: If Obama/Biden does not win, what would be the reason? Well, I think we all know the answer. The least Barack Obama could have done to correct this problem is put Hillary on the ticket. I don't see that Joe Biden is a better choice than Hillary. If you're going to try to placate us old-timers, and keep us from defecting, you could put Hillary on the ticket.
The advantage to Obama-Hillary is that McCain would then go with a traditional running mate. Even if Hillary brings out all the Clinton haters, you don't need 50% of the popular vote to win. If McCain wins this he will do it with less than 50% of the vote, I'm sure. All he needs now is Michigan and Ohio.

I don't know why I bother. No one seems to do it my way anyway.

[nomobull]

hillary lost get over it. and if you think mccain would have chosen a traditional running mate think again

[UpstateSC]

Seems that each day, more comes out about Palin's abuses of power as governor. It's quite clear that McCain didn't vet her before offering her the VP slot. His choices will be to stick with her and try to minimize the damage or dump her. Either way, his chances of winning the election decrease - he may have deflated Obama's convention bounce, but in the long run, help Obama win the election due to his (McCain's) poor choice in picking Palin. Obama will get his bounce - when it really counts - on election day.

[IslandGyal]

Yes, but Sarah Palin is a train wreck waiting to occur; we shall stand by and see it in action, LMAO.

[MPeter]

I doubt it. Who are these people polling. Do they know this?
. PAUL, Minnesota (CNN) — A senior adviser to the McCain campaign confirmed Monday that Todd Palin, husband to Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin, was arrested for driving while intoxicated in 1984.

"Yes, 24 years ago he had a DWI," senior McCain adviser Steve Schmidt told reporters in St. Paul.

Schmidt was asked if he was worried about the news, and replied, “I was not.”

The story was first reported by David Brody, a CNN contributor and Christian Broadcasting Network News Senior National Correspondent.