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Slouching From Bayh -- The Anti-Draft's Impact

09/18/2008 05:12 am ET | Updated May 25, 2011

So the nascent anti-draft to stop Sen. Evan Bayh swelled from blogs -- including HuffPo -- to include everything from Twitter outreach to a Facebook group to serious coverage in leading newspapers. In a few days, the group upended the national discussion of Bayh as a leading VP option for Sen. Barack Obama. It's hard to measure such a shift, of course, but it is visible at the InTrade prediction markets, where Bayh's VP chances dropped six points. (For comparison, Joe Biden gained a point and former Wes Clark bounced 9 points.) The Washington Post also reports that the Bayh's buzz is fading, and the anti-draft "may" be the reason:

[T]he left's Bayh fixation may be having an impact. The Bayh buzz has died down a bit. The new media darling appears to be Biden.

Steve Clemons struck a similar note yesterday:

[S]ources close to Obama report to me that after the "surge of concern" on the net about Evan Bayh, he has not been selected as Obama's VP running mate.

Clemons set off the Bayh debate last week, of course, with a report that Bayh's chances had risen to 50 percent. Meanwhile, Max Bernstein, a 28-year-old musician who jumpstarted the effort, told me he is "confident" that Obama's aides are aware of the anti-draft. Bernstein also thinks that, regardless of the given candidates, this VP debate is better conducted in public, since the campaigns are assessing potential voter reactions. "In private, you'll get people making claims to having their finger on the pulse of the people," he said, "why not just go straight to the people?" This time, (some of) the people went straight to the campaign, and they got their message out pretty quickly.

Notes: For more on the veepstakes, below is a clip of a recent interview I did with Blooomberg News. This post is adapted from a piece at The Washington Independent.