Here are my takeaways from this year's Iowa Caucus:
1. Not a Three-Way Finish
The Iowa results seem to suggest a close three-way race – 25-25-21. Yet among self-identified Republicans, the totals were actually 28-27-14, showing that Santorum and Romney lead the base, while independents and new voters propelled Paul. That makes Paul more likely to fade, because other states do not have same-day registration like Iowa. In a Republican primary, Republicans matter.
2. Evangelicals Actually Like Ron Paul
In a huge and under-reported development, Iowa's evangelical voters – who make up the majority of the caucus – backed Paul more than any other candidate besides Santorum. (About 32% went for Santorum and 19% for Paul.) Perry and Bachmann had repeatedly sought that voting bloc, but Paul's principled conservatism and pro-life views still broke through. That may scare establishment Republicans - Fox News was the only cable channel to cut off Paul's caucus speech.
3. But Santorum is Already Squandering His Surge
Rick Santorum bounded to an incredible finish in Iowa, despite a tiny budget and a media blackout for most of 2011. But there are already signs that his campaign is not ready for prime time – literally. Santorum's aides failed to get him on prime time television for a "victory" speech, for example, which would have provided his largest, unfiltered audience to date. (He took the stage at 12:20am ET.) Team Santorum simply waited while lesser candidates took larger billing, a galling rookie mistake. The Iowa Caucus is not a binding election night – a candidate may simply walk on stage to spin his "victory," without waiting for opponents to officially concede. Bill Clinton's famous "Comeback Kid" victory speech, after all, was delivered during a second place finish in New Hampshire
That's not all. Iowans noticed that Santorum's budget was so tight he didn't even have a bus – never mind a plane – and he campaigned out of the passenger seat of a vehicle called the "Chuck Truck." But apparently he doesn't have an Internet strategist, either. On Caucus Night, the Santorum Campaign's website was not updated with any kind of "ask" for fundraising or email registration. That's a shame, because Santorum was the only candidate name that leapt into Google's hottest searches on Tuesday night (along with "Sugar Bowl"). By failing to capitalize on that interest with basic web tactics, Santorum left a lot of money on the table. One veteran of Obama's 2008 web team estimated the cost was in the millions of dollars. For Wednesday, though, the Santorum Campaign had a fundraising email ready declaring "we shocked the world last night in Iowa."
4. Gingrich May Stay In to Stop Romney
Newt Gingrich easily gave the most gripping speech on caucus night, and by associating himself with Santorum and pledging to "reserve the right to tell the truth" about Romney's shortcomings, he cast himself as a relevant spoiler in the days to come. Political operatives often say the most dangerous opponents are those who, for whatever ideological or personal reasons, are willing to suppress their ambition in pursuit of a "murder-suicide" strategy. Many Democrats say that's what really halted Howard Dean in 2003, for example, when Richard Gephardt went all in to stop the Vermont insurgent. And at the end of the night, Gingrich sounded like he would rather be Rick Santorum's coach than Mitt Romney's running mate. With two high profile debates between now and the New Hampshire primary, that could be an influential perch.
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Ari Melber writes for The Nation, where this was first published.
Watch Ari Melber discuss the results on caucus night on CNBC.
Follow Ari Melber on Twitter: www.twitter.com/AriMelber
Michael Russnow: The Iowa Caucuses, What Do They Prove? Shakespeare Was Right About The Masses
Dan Bimrose: The Fallacy in Santorum's "Family" Argument
Peter Worthington: Could Ron Paul Re-Elect Obama?
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 |
|
| Obama | Romney | |
|---|---|---|
| Electoral Votes (270 to win) |
332 | 206 |
| Obama | Romney | |
|---|---|---|
| Total | 65,899,660 | 60,932,152 |
| Percent | 51.1% | 47.2% |
| Democrats* | Republicans | |
|---|---|---|
| Current Senate | 53 | 47 |
| Seats gained or lost | +2 | -2 |
| New Total | 55 | 45 |
| Democrats | Republicans | |
|---|---|---|
| Seats won | 201 | 234 |
100% precincts reporting
| Candidate | Votes | Pct. | Del. |
|---|---|---|---|
 Santorum |
29,839 | 24.6% | 13 |
 Romney |
29,805 | 24.5% | 12 |
 Paul |
26,036 | 21.4% | |
 Gingrich |
16,163 | 13.3% | |
 Perry |
12,557 | 10.3% | |
 Bachmann |
6,046 | 5.0% | |
 Huntsman |
739 | 0.6% | |
 Others |
254 | 0.2% | |
 Cain |
45 | 0.1% | |
 Roemer |
17 | 0.1% |
Delegate counts are estimates and might be adjusted later.
Do EVERYTHING within your power to make Santorum the nominee, Newton LeRoy... nothing would please us Dems more. NOTHING...
The problems encountered by Cain, Bachmann and Gingrich appear to be such that they cannot easily be overcome, because they are the result of the candidate's positions on the issues or past actions that are offensive to a significant number of voters. However, Perry's main problem arose from his poor debate performances, so he has a chance to overcome that. If he does appreciably better in the next few debates, he most likely will emerge as the principal challenger to Romney.
Whether his opponent is Perry, Romney or (if lightning strikes) Ron Paul, Obama should have the upper hand in the election. However, if Perry is the candidate he might be able to beat Obama by appealing to the same voters who were stupid enough to re-elect George W. Bush.
WTF?
I didn't know these exact numbers this morning, but the independent/young vote for Paul has serious implications for Romney. Take the "Ron Paul" excitement numbers out of the Iowa totals, and you have quite a bit FEWER total caucus-goers than 4 years ago. Don't forget that independents weren't split this year between Dem and GOP caucuses. That boosted turnout.
That means a Republican base that is NOT as excited as both parties were 4 years ago.
Now split that "establishment" vs. "evangelical" vote with Romney and Santorum (with the latter likely being the beneficiary of Bachmann's supporters elsewhere), plus potential third-party bids by other self-described conservatives like Ron Paul (who could go independent), Gary Johnson (already the Libertarian candidate) or Donald Trump (going after the Orly Taitz faction), you wind up with an incredibly fractured Republican base, with a likely "Nader spoiler" vote being more than enough to tip things the President's way should the race be very close (which it likely will be).
A lot of that is subject to change, but I'm breaking out the popcorn. This is going to be interesting for a long time before it gets boring.
Maybe New Hampshire will move their primary up to the 1st Tuesday in January in 2016, then Iowa will have to compete with Christmas to maintain their relevancy.
I believe that what these "corn-pickers" think is just as important as what anyone else thinks. One person, one vote; everybody's opinion counts.
PLEASE GET A CLUE!!!
I am starting to remember why I don't read Huff-Po as often anymore... what a shame!
That's not necessarily a good thing :)