Why Obama's Win is Bigger Than You Think

Des Moines -- Barack Obama's decisive victory in the Iowa Caucus is probably even larger than most people realize. In a battery of national polls -- often inaccurate but relentlessly pitched as self-fulfilling media predictions -- Clinton led by an average of 21 points just last week. As the Clinton Campaign used to emphasize, she also led in December polls from every upcoming primary state, from Iowa to Nevada. She spent about $7 million on over 8,000 television ads in Iowa, plus at least another $10 million on outreach in the state, and stood on the shoulders of Democratic giants, from President Clinton to Michael Whouley to a sizable chunk of the liberal policy establishment.

Barack Obama battled an expectations game stacked against all challengers; a metric of experience discounting work beyond Washington; and an unknowable question about the relevance of his skin color, swirling around his candidacy alone. Last night, Iowans did not simply accept Obama's masterful ability to clear those hurdles, they rushed to support him in an unprecedented coalition within record-breaking turnout. Over half of Democratic attendees were first-time caucus goers. Obama tapped the largest share of the new participants, who compromised 41 percent of his support. Youth turnout jumped 5 percent from 2004, thanks to Obama, who drew a whopping 57 percent of voters under 30. (Edwards and Clinton netted 13 and 11 percent, respectively.) Obama won more support from women voters than Clinton, by five percent. And he bested Clinton and Edwards by a solid 7 percent - roughly 25 percent of their totals.

Republicans saw 108,000 people caucus last night, while the Democrats drew a record-breaking 239,000 caucus attendees -- a gain of 115,000 from 2004. In today's New York Times, Adam Nagourney depicts the Democrats' "huge turn-out" as a demonstration of "the extent to which opposition to President Bush has energized Democrats." Not quite. Bush was easily as big an energizer in 2004, when he was actually on the ballot and Democrats were eager to battle an incumbent who had never even won the popular vote. Something else is at work here: a strong Democratic field with several compelling candidates; a sense that this is a rare and epic intramural battle that can set the party's course; and, apparently, a hunger for an Obama candidacy that is as adamant about transcending Bush Republicanism as it is about vanquishing Clintonian politics.

Comments

[DavidHealy]

Amen

[RickO]

If Iowa could be predictive of what follows, a general election race between Obama and Huckabee would not even be close. But although it appears the GOP is still very divided within itself, the attmepts by all of them to basically run for Bush's 3rd term will be overwhelmed by the desire for something else. One can hope and one does.

[jmndodge]

The Dem field was strong, and while I rejoice in the victory of Barack, I feel some sadness that several good men were denied their opportunity in Iowa. Biden, Dood, Richardson, Kucinish even Gravel. Certainly these are men to celebrate, and who bring a base of knowledge and experience to our nation. Let us hope that their voices will continue to be heard, and their service to our nation allowed to continue. Obama, Edwards, and Clinton will continue to have their voices heard -- Let us hope that media will move beyond the sound byte and let us listen to the passions of these leaders. As for the Gop, Iowa has done little in the way of answers, we will have to wait for a pattern to emerge.

[MHainds]

I have been campaigning for Obama in the Heart of Dixie, all the way down here in Lower Alabama. We have been holding barbeques, handing out bumper stickers and buttons, and mailing in our small contributions. Several of us pledged to do all we could do, with the knowledge that Clinton was leading by large margins in every national poll. After last night, we have reason to believe that Obama is not only the best candidate, but that he can carry through. He is electable.

[opines]

An important reason that Obama's victory in Iowa is 'big' is that Obama will benefit from the intense scrutiny his victory will command.

His resume, his body of work, his life itself bear impressive witness to his claim to being the agent for change for the better.

As the media spotlight pores over his record, no skeletons in the closet will be revealed. Instead, fair-minded Americans will be relieved to find a leader gifted with intellect, courage and clarity of vision.

I pray for his safety.